Flareup in central GoM

[bohaiboy]

Thunderstorms on increase. Local met doesn't think anything tropical will form but will bring heave rains to SE TX this weekend.

[terstorm1012]

that must be what's on the 12z HWRF-P, a low of some sort comes ashore around sabine pass Saturday-Sunday

[Portastorm]

Yep, it's a TUTT low that is progged to come ashore.

[LJFire1467]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

[abajan]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

(The image at the link you posted will change with time. This won't)

[cycloneye]

A weak area of disturbed weather is located over the north-central
Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures in this area are currently high,
and little to no development of this system is expected before it
reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[Stormcenter]

IF the NHC mentions then it's something to keep an eye on. I believe one of the models showed something developing in this area or a little further west.

[Portastorm]

Right now the feature is an upper level low. There's also an upper level trough to it's southwest deeper in the GOM. While it is possible this thing could spin down to the surface, I think that would take a while. My sense is that it will be onshore before that could happen. Should make for a wet weekend for portions of south/southeast Texas.

[Portastorm]

Actually, I am partially right and partially wrong ... LOL ... here is a note sent out this morning from pro met Jeff Lindner about this system. Listen to him, not me.

An upper level low over the NW Gulf will move inland over S TX today and will gradually result in the formation of a mid level and possibly surface low pressure system over the NW Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Forecast models are in some agreement on a surface low forming roughly 150 miles SE of Galveston starting late tonight and into Saturday and drifting toward the WNW this weekend and inland over the upper TX coast. Upper level winds out of the SSW and S on the eastern flank of the upper level low are currently unfavorable for development, but there could be a window on Saturday for some modest organization of this feature and NHC currently gives the system a 10% chance of formation over the next 48 hours.

Main impact of this system will be heavy to excessive rainfall as the envelop of tropical moisture associated the feature across the northern Gulf moves ashore over TX. A low level trough axis of actual surface low formation will only help to organize and concentrate excessive rainfall around a central core which would increase the flooding threat especially across the coastal counties Saturday night into Sunday. Overall system and individual storm motions will be very slow and this combined with the very moist air mass points to the potential for several inches of rainfall along and SE of the US 59 corridor over the weekend.

Grounds across the region are wet to saturated from all the recent rainfall and additional heavy rainfall over the weekend is expected to generate run-off.

[GalvestonWXGeek]

Should make for an interesting weekend on the island.....

[KatDaddy]

Bottom line, the Upper TX Coast, SE TX, and LA does not need any additional rainfall but the potential for flash flooding will increase during the weekend. This morning's Hou-Gal AFD indicates Flash Flood Watches may go into effect later today or tomorrow morning. The waters are very warm in the N Central and NW GOM. Remember Humberto 2007 went from a weak low pressure to CAT 1 hurricane in 16 hours. Definitely something to watch through the weekend.

[CrazyC83]

At least they are holding off tagging it as 91L...as nice as it would be to see models, we don't need more hype right now. Louisiana especially can't take anything as well.

[JtSmarts]

Have there ever been two storms in the Gulf at the same time? I know 04's Bonnie and Charley just missed each other.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like the convection south of AL. is getting more concentrated. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

[Tireman4]

All that gunk is moving our way. We do not need anymore rain, but are going to. Sigh.

[TexWx]

About 26N & 87W

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the
north-central Gulf of Mexico is associated with a weak trough of
low pressure. Conditions are not expected to be favorable for
development before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend.
This disturbance could produce heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast
from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next couple of days.
For additional information, please see products from your local
National Weather Service office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[Bailey1777]

I personally am more interested in this than 99...wish they would tag as this will effect where I am...about where Alicia formed..

[Hurricaneman]

This looks like a tropical depression, I'm surprised this has no coverage

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[South Texas Storms]

This disturbance is looking quite good today. I'm surprised there's no mention in the NHC TWO. It must be because it will be moving onshore shortly.