ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bg1]

I leave for two hours and the posts went from "it won't ever form" to "hey look, it's coming together". This post cycle seems to always follow D-MIN and D-MAX. It'll probably look awful again tomorrow afternoon since models don't show development until later, but I am not a met.

[GeneratorPower]

llc has turned nearly due west and is straight north of the eastern tip of HR.

What imagery are you using?

[Joe Snow]

Current Radar from PR

[gatorcane]

I leave for two hours and the posts went from "it won't ever form" to "hey look, it's coming together". This post cycle seems to always follow D-MIN and D-MAX. It'll probably look awful again tomorrow afternoon since models don't show development until later, but I am not a met.

Check out the Earl discussion thread and see how many comments there were about how it was not going to form and how bad it looked.

The models also really didn't pick up on how fast Earl was strengthening before landfall until within just a few days except the ECMWF and HWRF which were showing something more significant.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It is time to call Dr. McCoy in for 99L. 99L looks dead nothing more than a rain maker of anything. Just an opinion.

But a rain maker can be a lot, as those in Louisiana can attest.

Only if it were to stall out for a couple of days and remain organized, like we saw here in LA.

[Aric Dunn]

Hot tower alert (yellow shading in the convection burst):

only problem is its not near the center yet. center west of there.

[GeneratorPower]

llc has turned nearly due west and is straight north of the eastern tip of HR.

What is HR? Been seeing this and I feel ignorant.

[Aric Dunn]

llc has turned nearly due west and is straight north of the eastern tip of HR.

What imagery are you using?

RGB http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Joe Snow]

Current Radar from PR

The heaviest Thunderstorms are in the NW coordinate of the the Storm, Radar picking up echos of 0.5" hail

[StarmanHDB]

I've been observing 99L for the past hour and with tonight's DMAX coming into play I can honestly say that I am beginning to get a tad bit concerned about this becoming a potential monster. I'm no meteorologist, but something about the way 99L is starting to come together is causing my personal concern. It's not just the latest convection popping to the SSE of the LLC. Maybe someone better versed can assist. That stated, is the fact that the LLC is pulling in energy and moisture from the dying western lobe indicative of a sustained deepening, or is this just another aspect of DMAX? Thanks in advance.

[JaxGator]

Hot tower alert (yellow shading in the convection burst):

only problem is its not near the center yet. center west of there.

That's a good clip WNW of the last estimated position of the LLC but the convection is still close by and expanding.

[Alyono]

The same upper low that may kill Gaston may be what allows this to intensify

It is proping up the upper ridge. The band of shear is already lifting to the north. If this upper ridge props up, it will blow the MU forecast to shreds.

Yes, there could be an upper low, but it could be split to the SW of the system, a very dangerous place for it to be

To clarify you're thinking with the UL digging west of Gaston, that the ridge near 99L can build further north? GFS keeps the ridge over the northern Caribbean which would put upper level westerlies over 99L and likely kill it. However, a more northern ridge like the ECMWF shows would put upper level easterlies over 99L and therefore light shear.

Am I following your logic here?

yep. Thinking the EC has the environment better pegged here

[Aric Dunn]

Hot tower alert (yellow shading in the convection burst):

[img]https://s16.postimg.org/jto830rb9/tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2_20160825011500.gif[/ig]

only problem is its not near the center yet. center west of there.

[img]https://s10.postimg.io/fy0y2l009/tropical_ge_4km_ir4_floater_2_20160825011500.gif[/mg]

That's a good clip WNW of the last estimated position of the LLC but the convection is still close by and expanding.

yeah it should really start to slow down and convection will have a chance to build.

[Alyono]

your position is off, Aric

On SWIR, the center is 20.5N, 67W, NE of your position

[Hammy]

your position is off, Aric

On SWIR, the center is 20.5N, 67W, NE of your position

How like is it for a new center to form between that one and whatever moved over Hispaniola earlier today?

[Aric Dunn]

your position is off, Aric

On SWIR, the center is 20.5N, 67W, NE of your position

I used his image. but have been tracking it frame by frame so every 15 min. my position is at.

Image centered at Latitude= 20.26° N Longitude= 67.48° W (X=465 Y=360)

[SFLcane]

your position is off, Aric

On SWIR, the center is 20.5N, 67W, NE of your position

So then storms are firing near possible LLC

[tgenius]

So Aric doesn't that mean the center is a lil closer to the blowup with the hot tower? Is it maybe trying to make its way over?

[fci]

I leave for two hours and the posts went from "it won't ever form" to "hey look, it's coming together". This post cycle seems to always follow D-MIN and D-MAX. It'll probably look awful again tomorrow afternoon since models don't show development until later, but I am not a met.

Ah.....
Therein lies the rub.
IF tomorrow the convection looks like tonight, then it's real.

[Bocadude85]

llc has turned nearly due west and is straight north of the eastern tip of HR.

What is HR? Been seeing this and I feel ignorant.

He is referring to Hispaniola