ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[beoumont]

Umm, this is going to rapidly intensify, but at the same time it looks like it's still going due west, straight into PR.

Have you compared it's track with any other past storms yet? If not take a look at the path of the 1900 Galvez storm. Almost right on the same path so far. It went due west.

I know conditions are a bit different but man these two sure are lining up.

Tracks all TS 1980-2005

[La Breeze]

6 hours ago I thought it was getting boring.
3 hours ago I thought it was getting interesting.
Now I think it's getting scary.

They need to get recon in there ASAP. If this is a hurricane tomorrow morning, Southern Florida is going to lose its collective mind, although ultimately it may be Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi that have the most to fear from this storm.

Not liking this....

[La Breeze]

Looks very similar to the path of Katrina, hitting South FL as a cat 1 and then blossoming into a MH in the Gulf and making a beeline for New Orleans. Scary times ahead.

Please, no!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Storm is max 40 MPH now, maybe still a TD. That blow up of convection is impressive and will help the storm get its act together, but what we are seeing are cold cloud tops. Even the radar echos show how disorganized the system still is. Lotta football left for this one.

[Hurrilurker]

Maybe starting to pull some dry air from the west/south? Outflow looks somewhat restricted.

[USTropics]

Here's a pretty good resolution of the radar from Guadeloupe:



link: http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/temps-pour-les-prochaines-heures/guadeloupe/dept971

[Hammy]

but your surface analysis is off..

No evidence at all of the surface feature being under the MLC--all indications, both radar and surface, are that this is very elongated and that matches with surface obs I've seen.

[USTropics]

Recent saved loop:

[stormwise]

Realtime earth wind, it looks much less elongated than 12hrs ago when there was two vorts on the 06/37 and now shows weak defined center at the surface.

[Dean4Storms]

I think we are very close to a Tropical Cyclone here. If this trend continues I think we get Hermine named by Noon.

[Hammy]

Realtime earth wind, it looks much less elongated than 12hrs ago when there was two vorts on the 06/37 and now shows weak defined center at the surface.

That's very near where I analyzed it on radar and Weather Underground obs. What's notable compared to earlier is that the large monsoonal appearance is no longer present and we're left with that singular low center.

[wzrgirl1]

Been a while since I posted but this storm has captured my attention here in south florida. Went and got water yesterday just in case.

[tolakram]

More recent saved radar loop

[tolakram]

I don't see any reported west winds at the surface.

[stormwise]

Realtime earth wind, it looks much less elongated than 12hrs ago when there was two vorts on the 06/37 and now shows weak defined center at the surface.

That's very near where I analyzed it on radar and Weather Underground obs. What's notable compared to earlier is that the large monsoonal appearance is no longer present and we're left with that singular low center.

looks defined



Listed with TCFA alert.

[Nimbus]

If this isn't the surface center its close..

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Should be some weak west winds on the north shore of Guadalupe?

After a quick review of the 0Z model runs my first thought was... bring in the lawn furniture Luis!

[Blown Away]

If this isn't the surface center its close..

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Should be some weak west winds on the north shore of Guadalupe?

After a quick review of the 0Z model runs my first thought was... bring in the lawn furniture Luis!

Would you estimate the LLC to be just NNW of Guadalupe?

[p1nheadlarry]

Pretty close to a TD/TS this morning, if it passes through PR and stays north of HIspaniola, it could get very real.

[stormwise]

If this isn't the surface center its close..

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Should be some weak west winds on the north shore of Guadalupe?

After a quick review of the 0Z model runs my first thought was... bring in the lawn furniture Luis!

Can depend on the placement of the wind metre they aint always in the perfect position.

[Blown Away]

Projected movement based off the 00z & 06z Dvorak Fix points... Any deviation from WNW to W track or SW center relocations and it's a trip over Hispaniola...