ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Already an eye feature?

[CrazyC83]

There is good consensus on this becoming a monster down the road. I expect this to be the first major of the year personally. Given the eye feature, I'd go higher on the intensity right now - about 50 kt personally.

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Gaston is around the corner.Looking great with superb outflow.

For me to this juncture, this cyclone is the most impressive in its formative stages of the season for sure.

[gatorcane]

Yeah very impressive and could be a big ACE pumper

[Nimbus]

As long as it tracks east of Bermuda it can become annular and grow one of those huge demonic pentagram eyes for all I care.

[Kazmit]

Already a 40mph TS according to Tropical Tidbits. Looks like it could become a real monster of a storm.

[abajan]

As long as it tracks east of Bermuda it can become annular and grow one of those huge demonic pentagram eyes for all I care.

And let's not forget huge swells for the surfers!

[Hammy]

Satellite appearance resembles Edouard in 1996, which interestingly formed around the same time.

http://i.imgur.com/9iAmcdZ.png

[MrStormX]

The model runs seem to hint that this cyclone might eventually take on an Annular structure, which might potentially mean that this could be a pretty strong hurricane even at higher latitudes.

[CrazyC83]

The model runs seem to hint that this cyclone might eventually take on an Annular structure, which might potentially mean that this could be a pretty strong hurricane even at higher latitudes.

As far as I know there has never been a Cat 5 hurricane north of 25N and east of 70W. It seems low to mid Cat 4 is the max known (at least in the satellite era) there.

[cycloneye]

Notice the leveled time the models stay and then ramp up again.

[Ntxw]

The model runs seem to hint that this cyclone might eventually take on an Annular structure, which might potentially mean that this could be a pretty strong hurricane even at higher latitudes.

As far as I know there has never been a Cat 5 hurricane north of 25N and east of 70W. It seems low to mid Cat 4 is the max known (at least in the satellite era) there.

It's tough to get them that far north. Especially with trough interaction as they get closer to the upper air pattern of the mid latitudes. If it can happen, it will likely be with some kind of baroclinic processes and interactions. It may be we get that deep a system but a much larger wind field. We'll have a good idea if it's going to push cat 5 though, convection will be very cold and very dense as per usual with cat 5 systems.

[floridasun78]

good thing this going be fish only ships need watch it

[CrazyC83]

good thing this going be fish only ships need watch it

Some models make it a significant threat to Bermuda.

[p1nheadlarry]

Satellite appearance resembles Edouard in 1996, which interestingly formed around the same time.

http://i.imgur.com/9iAmcdZ.png

Hopefully Gaston doesn't also have a trailer along behind it like Edouard did twenty years ago. The next storm was a tad more impactful.

[MrStormX]

Already a 40mph TS according to Tropical Tidbits. Looks like it could become a real monster of a storm.

I wouldn't be surprised if it is already greater then that, given its impressive symmetric structure.

[floridasun78]

good thing this going be fish only ships need watch it

Some models make it a significant threat to Bermuda.

ok hope miss them

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL
STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 30.7W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016

The convective organization of the tropical cyclone has continued
to increase this evening. A couple of well-defined curved bands of
convection now wrap more than halfway around the center and some
cold cloud tops have recently developed near the center. As a
result, subjective Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T2.5 and
support upgrading the system to a 35-kt tropical storm. Gaston
becomes the seventh tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane
season.

Gaston is forecast to move over warm water and remain in a low wind
shear environment during the next couple of days. These favorable
conditions should allow for steady strengthening, and Gaston is
forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, which agrees with
the majority of the intensity guidance. In about 3 days, the
global models suggest that Gaston will be nearing an upper-level
low over the central Atlantic that could cause an increase in
southwesterly shear over the system. This should halt
intensification, and the NHC forecast calls for little change in
strength after 72 hours.

The tropical storm is being steered west-northwestward to the south
of deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic. A west-northwestward
motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the
next day or so. After that time, a weakness in the subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic should cause Gaston to turn
northwestward. The track guidance remains in very good agreement,
and the NHC forecast is close to the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 12.6N 30.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.0N 33.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.0N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.3N 38.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 41.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 21.0N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 28.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE SEVENTH TROPICAL
STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 30.7W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[tatertawt24]

It's so weird to be expecting a tropical storm and actually seeing the system meet the expectations right on time with no difficulty. Looking more impressive than I thought it would be when I signed on. This is going to be really interesting.