ATL: GASTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TJRE]

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goe ... stfull.jpg

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

goes science image 1745 UTC
has that look...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

My big fear with 90L, aside from the possible westward bend later in the period, is the sheer size some reliable models grow it to. The storm becomes utterly massive, besides intense.

[chaser1]

Wait?? What's that BEHIND 90L??

[La Sirena]

:uarrow: Wait?? What's that BEHIND 90L??

I was just thinking the same thing....gulp!

[galaxy401]

Yeah this looks clearly like a TS already. The season is really picking up now.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Wait?? What's that BEHIND 90L??

Another vigourous and healthy blob ready for some action?

[chaser1]

Yeah this looks clearly like a TS already. The season is really picking up now.

Yeah its pretty funny when you pass on classifying 90L as a depression yet classify something in the GOM as a T.S. when one could easily argue that system to be an open wave. Sure.... politics, population, commerce, and shipping all enter in to it - but should it?

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF is at 975 mbs and GFDL at 970 mbs at end of runs.

[JtSmarts]

It's amazing how things came alive just in time for the last third of August just as many of our knowledgeable Posters and Pro Mets warned. #Ilovethiscommunity!

[Hammy]

That satellite up there, I haven't seen the Atlantic look like that in quite some time.

There appears to be banding on the western and southern quadrants as well as per the latest IR, so this should get upgraded by the end of the day especially if we get an ASCAT pass.

[Kazmit]

It already looks like a healthy Tropical Storm, lol. If this isn't upgraded by 8pm, or before tomorrow, I won't even know what to say...

[TheStormExpert]

Just imagine how the Atlantic might be if the MJO was actually in a favorable region for the Atlantic.

[galaxy401]

Yeah this looks clearly like a TS already. The season is really picking up now.

Yeah its pretty funny when you pass on classifying 90L as a depression yet classify something in the GOM as a T.S. when one could easily argue that system to be an open wave. Sure.... politics, population, commerce, and shipping all enter in to it - but should it?

What are you talking about? This storm has 2.5 on the satellite estimates and appears to have banding evident. If this has the necessities needed to be a TS then it should be upgraded. This isn't in the GOM. I suppose there could still be debate with a surface circulation. Also where did I say that there was something in the Gulf that looked like a TS?

[CrazyC83]

Yeah this looks clearly like a TS already. The season is really picking up now.

Yeah its pretty funny when you pass on classifying 90L as a depression yet classify something in the GOM as a T.S. when one could easily argue that system to be an open wave. Sure.... politics, population, commerce, and shipping all enter in to it - but should it?

Big difference in the Gulf where warnings would need to be issued, you have to get the warnings out right away.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 29.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven
was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 29.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts


TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016

The low pressure area located west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient
organized convection to be considered a tropical depression.
Microwave imagery suggests that the system is likely still
consolidating, with two or more vorticity centers rotating around
a mean center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement
with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 275/16. The cyclone is on the south side of
a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic, and as a result it
should move generally west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours.
Beyond that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward
toward a weakness in the ridge over the central Atlantic. The
track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
forecast track lies near the consensus models.

The depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate
easterly vertical shear. This, combined with warm sea surface
temperatures, should allow strengthening. One possible negative
factor, however, is a tongue of African dust/dry air wrapping
around the west side of the circulation. On that basis that the
dry air will not stop development, the intensity forecast calls for
steady strengthening through 72 hours. After that time, arrested
development is likely due to the cyclone encountering moderate to
strong westerly vertical shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 29.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 12.4N 31.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.2N 34.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 14.5N 37.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.2N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 19.7N 44.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 23.8N 50.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 26.8N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts

[cycloneye]

Here it is.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 29.0W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[gatorcane]

interesting that NHC is actually slightly decreasing the intensity on days 4 and 5 due to shear despite global model guidance.

[tatertawt24]

That satellite up there, I haven't seen the Atlantic look like that in quite some time.

Right?! It's beautifulllllllll.

[cycloneye]

[Kazmit]

According to the NHC it's supposed to have a primary peak of ~90mph, and then weaken slightly.