2016 EPAC Season

[hurricanes1234]

Possibly something else to watch...

An area of low pressure is forecast to form off of the southwestern
coast of Mexico in a few days. Some subsequent development of this
system is possible late in the week while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad low pressure area has developed more than 500 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and
become a little more concentrated since yesterday, and some gradual
development of this disturbance is possible during the next several
days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Stewart

[hurricanes1234]

With the possible northwest motion mentioned, this may take a path similar to Frank?

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97E is up

[NDG]

With the models not showing much of anything over the next 10-14 days over the EPAC other than a weak TS here or there, this basin could be hurricane free for the entire month of August. This would be the first time since 1973 that this basin has been hurricane free during their usual busy month of August.
But as usual, models could be missing a hurricane forming by the end of the month.

[hurricanes1234]

With the models not showing much of anything over the next 10-14 days over the EPAC other than a weak TS here or there, this basin could be hurricane free for the entire month of August. This would be the first time since 1973 that this basin has been hurricane free during their usual busy month of August.
But as usual, models could be missing a hurricane forming by the end of the month.

A rather odd season with alternating active / below-average months. June was below-average with no named storms, followed by July which was so active it tied the 7-named-storm record and produced almost all the season's ACE thus far, then followed by August which hasn't seen much outside of a few moderate tropical storms 19 days in.

Next comes what? An active September followed by a quiet October?

Personally I do think it's possible a weak hurricane could form before August ends but nothing like what we saw in July. That was just amazing.

Combine the up and down pattern of activity with the fact that a Category 2 formed in early January almost at the Equator in the central Pacific and it gives us a sense of how highly unusual this season has been.

[Kingarabian]

GFS/UKMET/Euro all showing another TS within 120 hours. Should see an NHC marker soon.

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of low pressure could form about 1000 miles south-southwest
or southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula by
mid-week. Some slow development of this system is possible after
that time as it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Pasch

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of disturbed weather has formed about 1000 miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a few days.
Gradual development of that system is possible beyond that time
while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

Euro is bullish.

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kay, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

1. An area of disturbed weather located about 850 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is showing some signs
of organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week as the disturbance moves west-northwestward at
around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form about 500 miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a
couple of days. Environmental conditions are conducive for
development while this system moves generally westward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS calling for two hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 98E is up

[cycloneye]

INVEST 99E is up

[Kingarabian]

Potential double trouble for Hawaii the GFS is showing.

[Kingarabian]

GFS showing a very active EPAC soon.



Euro as well.


Euro has 98E as low as 947mb on high res.

[stormwise]

You notice on those GFS plots from tropical tidbits there is a grid problems or something else you constantly see crazy pressures on the plots such as the 953 and the 910mb in the SH

[Alyono]

6Z MU has 2 canes in 3 days for HI

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some subsequent development of this system is possible
as it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some subsequent development of this system is possible
as it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Extratropical94]

Down to 10% in 5 days

2. An area of low pressure could form early next week several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Little to no development of this system is expected as
it moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent