ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[centuryv58]

57 what's your take on SFL? It's been in a while since and all your cherries need to be in the right basket for this to make it across but I don't like what Iam seeing thus far. You mentioned gulf storm well it'd gotta cross Florida first.

I think that this system is going to struggle with mid-level dry air through the Bahamas. If it does impact the FL Peninsula, then it may well be as a TS and not a H. Best bet is a recurve near the Bahamas (70% chance) as a TS. That leaves 30% of uncertainty...

Will you go 90/10 for a recurve? I don't want to bet the farm!

[wxman57]

wx so you don't buy the westward bend going in to the GOM?

I'm not saying a Gulf threat is not possible, I just think a recurve near the Bahamas is a bit more likely. As for the moisture aloft, I was looking at the 500mb RH levels from August 14-20. RH is at 15-25% from the Bahamas to the disturbance's current position. That is fairly dry air aloft, which is why I'd go with a TS through the next 5-6 days vs. a hurricane.

[StormHunter72]

57 struggle in the Bahamas? Hmm not what I am seeing. 70% chance recurve in Bahamas that's rather confident this far out.

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/767697231205978113

He is a pro met. I will listen to him. Lots of people here seem to want a potential disaster??

[NDG]

We can have an idea if 99L has a closed surface circulation over the next few hours based on this buoy on the western circulation of 99L. Winds are currently very light from the NNW.

www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

Conditions at 41040 as of
(11:50 am ADT)
1450 GMT on 08/22/2016:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 340 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 1.9 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.8 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 82 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.93 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.00 in ( Steady )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.0 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.0 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 1.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 1.9 kts

[Hurricaneman]

The only thing that could stop this in the Bahamas is maybe continental air wrapping in otherwise its most likely a go

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[psyclone]

The system is looking better and it should come as no surprise. It's a large circulation in late August. Under such a scenario something is more likely than nothing eventually. I wouldn't be surprised if we see the NHC bumping development odds slowly up over time. Even if the convection fades with D-min, it'll likely refire overnight. these things remind me of a stubborn lawn mower...they often take several cranks to get going.

[cycloneye]

Hurricaneman,I split your post from the main recon thread to make this discussion thread.

To your question,is possible Gonzo may be up and mentioned in Tuesdays POTD.

[chaser1]

If this level of convection more or less maintains itself than I anticipate NHC will put out a special TWS tonight for portions of the Lesser Antilles discussing T.S. Watches possibly going into effect by mid-day Tue.

[Alyono]

The only thing that could stop this in the Bahamas is maybe continental air wrapping in otherwise its most likely a go

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

SHEAR! May contend with a massive upper low in the Bahamas

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/767744774610694144

[centuryv58]

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/767744774610694144

That tweet says it all...

[p1nheadlarry]

Wide Atlantic view - 99l starting to get that "look" with an impressive signature and noticeable large cyclonic rotation. Look at the monster in the making in the Far East Atlantic too...far right-hand side of image.

https://s4.postimg.org/jf2p48zm5/vis_animated.gif

The trough coming out of the left, that won't have much affect on 99L will it?

You can also see a low spinning in between the Yucatan and Florida/Cuba

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/767757960655155200

[Aric Dunn]

Convection increasing and as long as it does not collapse it wont take to long to close off a tight center. broad wind field has already been closed just no convection.

Also GFS 12 now has a west turn heading for south florida ( though drifting) though still weak as the gfs typically is ..

Massive ridging on eastern seaboard also takes fiona into florida..

[Gustywind]

Convection increasing and as long as it does not collapse it wont take to long to close off a tight center. broad wind field has already been closed just no convection.

Also GFS 12 now has a west turn heading for south florida ( though drifting) though still weak as the gfs typically is ..

Massive ridging on eastern seaboard also takes fiona into florida..

Aric do you tkink that a TD could form before the Leewards? Any guess about that because 99L seems to find better conditions and continue to grow very nicely since the last 5 hours.
Thanks for your input. Answers will be much appreciated.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection increasing and as long as it does not collapse it wont take to long to close off a tight center. broad wind field has already been closed just no convection.

Also GFS 12 now has a west turn heading for south florida ( though drifting) though still weak as the gfs typically is ..

Massive ridging on eastern seaboard also takes fiona into florida..

Aric do you tkink that a TD could form before the Leewards? Any guess about that because 99L seems to find better conditions and continue to grow very nicely since the last 5 hours.
Thanks for your input. Answers will be much appreciated.

Its quite possible. if convection can maintain and well defined center can develop it would likely be a TD/TS before the islands.

[JaxGator]

Convection increasing and as long as it does not collapse it wont take to long to close off a tight center. broad wind field has already been closed just no convection.

Also GFS 12 now has a west turn heading for south florida ( though drifting) though still weak as the gfs typically is ..

Massive ridging on eastern seaboard also takes fiona into florida..

Aric do you tkink that a TD could form before the Leewards? Any guess about that because 99L seems to find better conditions and continue to grow very nicely since the last 5 hours.
Thanks for your input. Answers will be much appreciated.

Its quite possible. if convection can maintain and well defined center can develop it would likely be a TD/TS before the islands.

Which in case it did, resemble earlier model runs showing 99L at that intensity?

[Gustywind]

Convection increasing and as long as it does not collapse it wont take to long to close off a tight center. broad wind field has already been closed just no convection.

Also GFS 12 now has a west turn heading for south florida ( though drifting) though still weak as the gfs typically is ..

Massive ridging on eastern seaboard also takes fiona into florida..

Aric do you tkink that a TD could form before the Leewards? Any guess about that because 99L seems to find better conditions and continue to grow very nicely since the last 5 hours.
Thanks for your input. Answers will be much appreciated.

Its quite possible. if convection can maintain and well defined center can develop it would likely be a TD/TS before the islands.

waouw something to monitor carefully if this pans out. Thanks for that input. Let's wait and see and be prepared in case of... islanders.

[LarryWx]

Aric do you tkink that a TD could form before the Leewards? Any guess about that because 99L seems to find better conditions and continue to grow very nicely since the last 5 hours.
Thanks for your input. Answers will be much appreciated.

Its quite possible. if convection can maintain and well defined center can develop it would likely be a TD/TS before the islands.

Which in case it did, resemble earlier model runs showing 99L at that intensity?

You mean like this 0Z Fri GFS run, which had a TD just NE of Barbados for 2 days from now?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=314

[JaxGator]

Its quite possible. if convection can maintain and well defined center can develop it would likely be a TD/TS before the islands.

Which in case it did, resemble earlier model runs showing 99L at that intensity?

You mean like this 0Z Fri GFS run, which had a TD just NE of Barbados for 2 days from now?
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=314

I think so. The GFS and the HWRF had a more developed storm then. 99L looks more organized imo than what the GFS has it now.