ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Bocadude85]

I think it's behaving just as had been forecast. Never expected it to develop any convection until it got closer to the eastern Caribbean. The NHC shouldn't have begun doubting development yesterday because it lacked convection. Take a look at the MIMIC-TPW loop (as I've said). Quite a lot of moisture & energy, and quite a circulation. It could potentially be a Gulf threat, but I'm thinking it has a better chance of tracking into the Bahamas then turning north.

Any thoughts on a potential Florida/SE Coast threat or are you thinking out to sea after the Bahamas?

my thought: West Palm Beach to Vero (977mb)

Going out on a limb I see... I am still not sure if this makes the coast of Florida or not.

[chaser1]

Any thoughts on a potential Florida/SE Coast threat or are you thinking out to sea after the Bahamas?

my thought: West Palm Beach to Vero (977mb)

Some kind of hybrid of the tracks for Erin (1995)/Frances (2004)/Jeanne (2004) is definitely a possibility. But we are still talking about several days out, so the "windshield wiper" model pattern needs to resolve before getting too definitive, in my opinion.

Correction, make that Jupiter

By the way, this link is to the NASA GOES (simply click the link and then once on page, click "animation" under Sat. pic). Looks like we're beginning to see evidence of this establishing a moist feed from the ITCZ

[chaser1]

oops, forgot link LOL - http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[Weatherboy1]

Not sure if this has been posted anywhere, but this is the Weather Prediction Center's discussion from earlier today. Covers a few of the players on the field for 5-7 days from now - though obviously highlights the uncertainty in the forecast this far out

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

FOR THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BASIN --- TOO MUCH OF THE DETAIL IS
LITERALLY 'SWIRLING' SOUTH OF BERMUDA. AFTER DAY 5, THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH HOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT AND/OR DECAYED MID-LATITUDE COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE SUBTROPICAL SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THOUGHT THE GFS/ECMWF HAD DECENT CONTINUITY THROUGH DAY
5 --- ENOUGH SO THAT I COULD ACTUALLY FIND A 'TRACK-ABLE' AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER AND 'MANUALLY EDIT' A GENERAL MIGRATORY PATHWAY
WITHIN THE BROAD TRADEWIND REGIME SOUTH OF THE MULTIPLE BAROCLINIC
ZONES --- SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 25N-30N LATITUDE. VOJTESAK

...OVERVIEW...
UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WED-SUN WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IN THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS
LOATH TO ATTRITE. ONE MAIN SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WED/THU AND INTO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
FRIDAY BEFORE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND TN VALLEY NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT IN A MUCH WEAKENED STATE.

[gatorcane]

Best it is has looked in a while - must be feeling the warmer SSTs, saved loop:

[gatorcane]

Shear is low/decreasing now all the way to the Bahamas for 99l:

[Frank2]

Per the above loop, the one easternmost diurnal flare is dissipating while the westernmost flare is moving due west (note the low clouds ahead of 99), and it's moving at a faster rate, so still nothing firm...

[SFLcane]

57 what's your take on SFL? It's been in a while since and all your cherries need to be in the right basket for this to make it across but I don't like what Iam seeing thus far. You mentioned gulf storm well it'd gotta cross Florida first.

[storm4u]

Seems to be developing pretty good now! Im guessing at 2pm it gets bumped up a bit!

[gatorcane]

Wide Atlantic view - 99l starting to get that "look" with an impressive signature and noticeable large cyclonic rotation. Look at the monster in the making in the Far East Atlantic too...far right-hand side of image.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=17&lon=-51&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=9&mapcolor=gray&map=none

I see stationary to eastern moving low level clouds, looks to me like there is some sort LLC.

[chaser1]

Best it is has looked in a while - must be feeling the warmer SSTs, saved loop:

Yep, sure is looking good. Its starting to really tap into a nice moist feed from the south too. Guessing the center is somewhere near (or just north of?) 16N & 50W. I think we're gonna see this convection persist throughout the day. If so, i'd guess NHC later today or evening, may be inclined to up their prospects on near term - 48hr. development to as high as 50%.

[wxman57]

57 what's your take on SFL? It's been in a while since and all your cherries need to be in the right basket for this to make it across but I don't like what Iam seeing thus far. You mentioned gulf storm well it'd gotta cross Florida first.

I think that this system is going to struggle with mid-level dry air through the Bahamas. If it does impact the FL Peninsula, then it may well be as a TS and not a H. Best bet is a recurve near the Bahamas (70% chance) as a TS. That leaves 30% of uncertainty...

[tolakram]

Right now, in my amateur opinion, the mid level water vapor loop doesn't look that bad, and if you view the movie it appears 99 has done a good job moistening the environment around it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=wvmid&time=

[stormlover2013]

wx so you don't buy the westward bend going in to the GOM?

[Aric Dunn]

Finally working out the dry air/SAL. models are starting to pick up on it a little better now.

[SFLcane]

57 struggle in the Bahamas? Hmm not what Iam seeing. 70% chance recurve in Bahamas that's rather confident this far out.

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/767697231205978113

[Aric Dunn]

57 struggle in the Bahamas? Hmm not what Iam seeing. 70% chance recurve in Bahamas that's rather confident this far out.

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/767697231205978113

yeah even the euro is showing a good environment. its not showing much deepening but given the trend with the last few runs its probably going to show even more deepening along with a slight shift west given the continued faster motion

[psyclone]

wx so you don't buy the westward bend going in to the GOM?

He gave a very generous (at this juncture) 30% for something other than a turn north in the Bahamas. Plenty of time to watch and update when/if necessary.

[Hurricaneman]

Wouldn't be surprised if they also task a plane to check the steering currents and stuff since the models have it close to or over land areas

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