ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

DMAX is setting in. All we need is convection.

[SouthFLTropics]

TAFB... Heading Over PR and just N of Hispaniola in 3-4 days...

Right where we don't want it...I'd feel better if it was about 250 miles NE of that position. Based on how the high has been all Summer my gut tells me we may get a significant impact from this. I recall the weeks leading up to Frances were very similar to what we have been experiencing this Summer.

[TheStormExpert]

TAFB... Heading Over PR and just N of Hispaniola in 3-4 days...

Right where we don't want it...I'd feel better if it was about 250 miles NE of that position. Based on how the high has been all Summer my gut tells me we may get a significant impact from this. I recall the weeks leading up to Frances were very similar to what we have been experiencing this Summer.

I know this could rapidly intensify in the Bahamas given the very warm waters but something tells me it is going to run out of time and at best be a TS.

[abajan]

DMAX is setting in. All we need is convection.

I don't think DMAX is due for another 7 hours. Isn't that right?

[GeneratorPower]

Atmosphere is moistening. Watch the brown colors fading west of 99L.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

http://i64.tinypic.com/b5mgw1.jpg
TAFB... Heading Over PR and just N of Hispaniola in 3-4 days...

Right where we don't want it...I'd feel better if it was about 250 miles NE of that position. Based on how the high has been all Summer my gut tells me we may get a significant impact from this. I recall the weeks leading up to Frances were very similar to what we have been experiencing this Summer.

I would feel better if the GFS and Euro were pointing at SE Florida now knowing that the models would change this far out. The building ridge over the Carolinas is a bit unnerving with the thought of 99l getting into the Bahamas. Best if 99l can somehow track more over Hispaniola where it could get disrupted.

[SouthFLTropics]

TAFB... Heading Over PR and just N of Hispaniola in 3-4 days...

Right where we don't want it...I'd feel better if it was about 250 miles NE of that position. Based on how the high has been all Summer my gut tells me we may get a significant impact from this. I recall the weeks leading up to Frances were very similar to what we have been experiencing this Summer.

I know this could rapidly intensify in the Bahamas given the very warm waters but something tells me it is going to run out of time and at best be a TS.

Given the right conditions there is more than enough water and time for 99L to blow up into something bigger before it would make it this far.

[Joe Snow]

What's happening on the North Western side of Cuba looks like some showers starting to swirl?

[SouthFLTropics]

99L is popping more convection than Fiona at this moment.

[Bocadude85]

http://i64.tinypic.com/b5mgw1.jpg
TAFB... Heading Over PR and just N of Hispaniola in 3-4 days...

Right where we don't want it...I'd feel better if it was about 250 miles NE of that position. Based on how the high has been all Summer my gut tells me we may get a significant impact from this. I recall the weeks leading up to Frances were very similar to what we have been experiencing this Summer.

I would feel better if the GFS and Euro were pointing at SE Florida now knowing that the models would change this far out. The building ridge over the Carolinas is a bit unnerving with the thought of 99l getting into the Bahamas. Best if 99l can somehow track more over Hispaniola where it could get disrupted.

Always best to be in the bullseye 10 days out.... I'm still not sure we will see a SE Florida threat....seems there is always something to pull a system north at the last minute.

[gatorcane]

Wv loop tonight shows a ULL near Bermuda moving NE and another one over the NW Cuba moving west clearing out a potential area of favorable upper-level winds for 99l over the Bahamas.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wv loop tonight shows a ULL near Bermuda moving NE and another one over the NW Cuba moving west clearing out a potential area of favorable upper-level winds for 99l over the Baham

That ULL must be what brought some showers and storms to us earlier today. They were short lived. Looks like easterly flow will continue for the foreseeable future.

[Blown Away]

Right where we don't want it...I'd feel better if it was about 250 miles NE of that position. Based on how the high has been all Summer my gut tells me we may get a significant impact from this. I recall the weeks leading up to Frances were very similar to what we have been experiencing this Summer.

I would feel better if the GFS and Euro were pointing at SE Florida now knowing that the models would change this far out. The building ridge over the Carolinas is a bit unnerving with the thought of 99l getting into the Bahamas. Best if 99l can somehow track more over Hispaniola where it could get disrupted.

Always best to be in the bullseye 10 days out.... I'm still not sure we will see a SE Florida threat....seems there is always something to pull a system north at the last minute.

12z Euro had Strong TS landfall in Daytona at 168 hours or 7 days... So that's about 6 days from SFL... It's not 10 days unless you hug the GFS...

[rickybobby]

Fox 35 said invest 99 could impact central Florida in 5 to 7 days.

[Hammy]

Actually seems to be closed, even if barely.

[Hurricaneman]

This now has some convection around the center, could it be possible this gets going before the lesser antilles?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[AtlanticWind]

This now has some convection around the center, could it be possible this gets going before the lesser antilles?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I think it is definitely possible as globals do not always pick up on development right away.

[hurricanehunter69]

With a vigorous and large cyclonic envelope observed on mimic imagery, I would be very concerned and interested in this trend of increased thunderstorm activity. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[floridasun78]

look like how going area were could come alive let how look later in morning[quote]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such.[quote]

[SouthFLTropics]

With a vigorous and large cyclonic envelope observed on mimic imagery, I would be very concerned and interested in this trend of increased thunderstorm activity. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

That is for sure...the engine is definitely turning. Just needs some more fuel to it before it fires up.