Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Alyono]

If Fiona is our final storm of August (and this may be a possibility thanks to the MJO stuck in the WPAC), I would suspect we would have a very quiet season

Even my 11/7/2 would be in jepordy

[Darvince]

The climate is shifting to a new state, so analogs are losing their old forecasting value:
 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/764596445227978753



 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/765295203347554304

[Ntxw]

That's quite possible. I now agree that hurricanes, themselves, have been a bit underdone on average since 1975 during phase 6 in August vs the average for all August days. However, even with that, there were 2 storms that became not only H's but also major H's during phase 6 in August out of 28 overall Aug MH since 1975: Belle of 1976 and Charley of 2004. So, you never know.

Those are still very slim odds. Regardless though MJO or not the open Atlantic will need hurricanes to keep pace with ACE. At the beginning of the month I mentioned how it was not too important given the low average at the time, however towards the end as we are approaching peak getting to 30 units by September and then racking up another 20+ the first two weeks to keep pace is no easy task without MH trackers.

Of course keep all of them away from land.

As far as the MJO just look at the west pacific now with it. Could you imagine if 4-5 systems were going on at the same time as it is over there in the Atlantic? People would get dizzy going back and forth between threads

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/766862727134314496

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766766872255565824




-

This basically supports the Euro being correct with 99L not developing.

The mjo does not need to be in a favorable phase for us to see development in the Atlantic as we just saw with Fiona.

Exactly, it does not mean that there will be no development at all, it just means that any development, which are lower in phase 6, have a lower chance of becoming a hurricane than when the MJO is on Phase 1 & 2.
The strongest sinking motion is over the Indian Ocean not the Atlantic, another thing to add.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766981155262300160




Not exactly an indicator but I liked the tweet.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/766981492081844224

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766981155262300160




Not exactly an indicator but I liked the tweet.

Well, happy first day of the most active part of the hurricane season to everyone

[JaxGator]

In the light of the 2 new systems forming, some bloggers on other weather sites have already called the un-active phase of the Atlantic. I know most of us are amateurs and we're still learning the awesomeness of weather, but I think it's premature to make a call like that now. Model runs shouldn't draw such of a conclusion.

[Hammy]

Even without 99L developing, we're going to be ahead of 1998 by the end of the month -if- the GFS/Euro verify with 90L (I'm skeptical of systems north of 20N that far out after last year)--1998 was 5/2/1 (we can extend that out to 5/3/1 since Earl formed August 31 and became a hurricane a few days later). In fact, prior to September 15, the season was at 6/3/1--This year would be at 8/3/1 by the end of August with the models verifying, and that's if literally nothing else forms after 90L before September.

Everything's falling in line with my 1998 analog forecast from July and things getting busy around the third week of August--and even more active given Earl at the start of the month. http://i.imgur.com/AA7iN3f.png

With the suppressive phase of the MJO sitting over the Atlantic it's entirely possible the early part of September could be somewhat quiet (similarly to 1998, with only Frances actually forming during that time). And similarly to 1998 (and possibly 1999) the latter half into October could be busy.

[Ntxw]

There is a slight difference from 1998 though at this time. During this week heading into the next, both Bonnie and Danielle racked up a whopping ~50 units of ACE. And then early September Georges pumped another 39 units bringing it to 89. That is some extreme quality over quantity. The numbers can be deceptive.

5/3/1 with 50 units vs 8/3/1 and 13 units is a stark contrast. If you compare storm by storm of the two seasons, it's no contest.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

While I dont think we will come close to touching the number of hurricanes compared to '98 nor the north gulf seeing as much action even if it is weak short lived. The one thing I do agree with though is the vast majority of what does develop will recurve out in the atlantic like '98.

[Steve]

While I dont think we will come close to touching the number of hurricanes compared to '98 nor the north gulf seeing as much action even if it is weak short lived. The one thing I do agree with though is the vast majority of what does develop will recurve out in the atlantic like '98.

That was a split season though with 7 landfalls (1 a brush by @ OBX) and 7 recurves. My guess for this year was also 14 named but not necessarily based off 98. I think there was something like 20,000 or more fatalities that year with Mitch, so hopefully Honduras doesn't see anything like that in late October!

[centuryv58]

While I dont think we will come close to touching the number of hurricanes compared to '98 nor the north gulf seeing as much action even if it is weak short lived. The one thing I do agree with though is the vast majority of what does develop will recurve out in the atlantic like '98.

That was a split season though with 7 landfalls (1 a brush by @ OBX) and 7 recurves. My guess for this year was also 14 named but not necessarily based off 98. I think there was something like 20,000 or more fatalities that year with Mitch, so hopefully Honduras doesn't see anything like that in late October!

NOAA probably knows more about the expected number of named storms (15+) this year than we do. It will be an active year nonetheless.

[Hammy]

There is a slight difference from 1998 though at this time. During this week heading into the next, both Bonnie and Danielle racked up a whopping ~50 units of ACE. And then early September Georges pumped another 39 units bringing it to 89. That is some extreme quality over quantity. The numbers can be deceptive.

5/3/1 with 50 units vs 8/3/1 and 13 units is a stark contrast. If you compare storm by storm of the two seasons, it's no contest.

George wasn't early September, didn't even become a hurricane until the 18th; and you're comparing current ACE, on August 21, with the potential August 31 numbers--if we get a major hurricane we're not going to remain at 13 ACE--1998 was only at 4.1 at the present time.

[Ntxw]

I was responding to your comment by the end of the month with the assumptions. By then both Bonnie and Danielle had contributed. Regardless, ACE wise to keep up with 1998 is no easy task, it was a very hyperactive season.

Lets assume 90L will get 25 units by the end of this month. You would still need another storm of that caliber to keep up with both Bonnie and Danielle

[Ntxw]

98 aside, at the very least if 90L delivers (and it may be a formidable cane) it would keep ACE close to seasonal normal which is much needed, especially since it will probably be a fish storm. A nice one to track

[Hammy]

I was responding to your comment by the end of the month with the assumptions. By then both Bonnie and Danielle had contributed. Regardless, ACE wise to keep up with 1998 is no easy task, it was a very hyperactive season.

Lets assume 90L will get 25 units by the end of this month. You would still need another storm of that caliber to keep up with both Bonnie and Danielle

Fair enough, but my 1998 comparison was primarily numbers--that we would be largely quiet until around the last third of August, made mainly in reply to people who were trying to call the season dead because we weren't at record activity by the middle of July. I don't think we'll have an exact repeat with tracks/ACE/etc but I think the numbers as well as how the season went, getting off to a (somewhat) late start with the stronger storms, with relatively short active periods followed by quiet periods, is a good analog for this year, rather than something like 2013 or something like 2004/05 with near constant activity.

[Kazmit]

I feel as if much of this year will be quantity over quality. Already we're about to be at the "G" name, but a lot of the storms so far have been relatively short-lived, and yes, this means lower ACE than usual. We shall see, as 90L might become major Hurricane Gaston, and generate quite a bit of units, but in general, that's not been the trend so far.

[tolakram]

Instability still rising.