ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Now that UKMet is back onboard it will be interesting to see if the Euro gets onboard. I think the thing to notice is the faster speed with the GFS and also the interaction with the islands.

[floridasun78]

The fact that the model thread contains 3X as many pages as the main thread for 99L is telling. I'll become more interested when/if the main thread for 99L picks up...as that will indicate system is actually doing something/forming.

Correct, except one key factor that separates these two threads at this present time.
1) We have a vigorous wave presently in the MDR which is maintaining its structure but fighting to maintain a level of convective activity. Why?

2) Just like a couple of trolling rods being fished from behind a boat, we're starting to really get some repeated bounces on at least a couple of the fishing rod tips and its hard to ignore that something is chasing or nibling at the bait. Point being, the GFS seems to really be honing in on development of 99L and the ensemble members are oddly becoming quite in line for a period this far out. Sure, we're seeing big inconsistancy regarding intensity. There seems to be a pretty obviousl reason why however (land).

Prediction: 99L maintains itself without significant strengthening for at least 2-3 days. Suddenly, the EURO will wake up on Sunday and suddenly begin to forecast genesis with this system, and more or less in line with the GFS (which for the next 2 days will continue to bounce around between a weaker low south or over the Greater Antilles, & slightly strong will deepening and moving just north of Hispanola). I think that there will be a potential risk to the Central and W. Bahamas and plausably for a Cat 2 - Cat 4 to impact the E. Florida coastline from somewhere between W. Palm and Daytona Beach. Assuming that these steering conditions play out, than I'd think that a significant threat could play out along the N. Gulf coast somewhere between the W. Fla. Panhandle and E. Louisiana.

i want to see models right making this td by sunday into monday before i saw models are right

[Caneman12]

Unless I missed the crystal ball sale, the jury is still out with 99L. The GFS is weaker this run, but it still shows an intensifying cyclone in the Bahamas. If we see a trend in subsequent runs toward the Euro, then we can break out the storm cancel posts. Until then, hanging your hat on one model run is amateurish. The UKMET is back aboard the development train.

Just let time progress.

Very well said. Let's wait and see what the 6z GFS shows

Please can i see the UKMET run or at least tell me if it actually is developing this thing someone told me its not developing this is the UKMET predicting genisis

[floridasun78]

The fact that the model thread contains 3X as many pages as the main thread for 99L is telling. I'll become more interested when/if the main thread for 99L picks up...as that will indicate system is actually doing something/forming.

Correct, except one key factor that separates these two threads at this present time.
1) We have a vigorous wave presently in the MDR which is maintaining its structure but fighting to maintain a level of convective activity. Why?

2) Just like a couple of trolling rods being fished from behind a boat, we're starting to really get some repeated bounces on at least a couple of the fishing rod tips and its hard to ignore that something is chasing or nibling at the bait. Point being, the GFS seems to really be honing in on development of 99L and the ensemble members are oddly becoming quite in line for a period this far out. Sure, we're seeing big inconsistancy regarding intensity. There seems to be a pretty obviousl reason why however (land).

Prediction: 99L maintains itself without significant strengthening for at least 2-3 days. Suddenly, the EURO will wake up on Sunday and suddenly begin to forecast genesis with this system, and more or less in line with the GFS (which for the next 2 days will continue to bounce around between a weaker low south or over the Greater Antilles, & slightly strong will deepening and moving just north of Hispanola). I think that there will be a potential risk to the Central and W. Bahamas and plausably for a Cat 2 - Cat 4 to impact the E. Florida coastline from somewhere between W. Palm and Daytona Beach. Assuming that these steering conditions play out, than I'd think that a significant threat could play out along the N. Gulf coast somewhere between the W. Fla. Panhandle and E. Louisiana.

i want to see models right making this td by sunday into monday before i saw models are right

i read statement more time what you say like andrew did form into strong hurr north of Hispanola

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/766862390625435648

[p1nheadlarry]

The fact that the model thread contains 3X as many pages as the main thread for 99L is telling. I'll become more interested when/if the main thread for 99L picks up...as that will indicate system is actually doing something/forming.

Correct, except one key factor that separates these two threads at this present time.
1) We have a vigorous wave presently in the MDR which is maintaining its structure but fighting to maintain a level of convective activity. Why?

2) Just like a couple of trolling rods being fished from behind a boat, we're starting to really get some repeated bounces on at least a couple of the fishing rod tips and its hard to ignore that something is chasing or nibling at the bait. Point being, the GFS seems to really be honing in on development of 99L and the ensemble members are oddly becoming quite in line for a period this far out. Sure, we're seeing big inconsistancy regarding intensity. There seems to be a pretty obviousl reason why however (land).

Prediction: 99L maintains itself without significant strengthening for at least 2-3 days. Suddenly, the EURO will wake up on Sunday and suddenly begin to forecast genesis with this system, and more or less in line with the GFS (which for the next 2 days will continue to bounce around between a weaker low south or over the Greater Antilles, & slightly strong will deepening and moving just north of Hispanola). I think that there will be a potential risk to the Central and W. Bahamas and plausably for a Cat 2 - Cat 4 to impact the E. Florida coastline from somewhere between W. Palm and Daytona Beach. Assuming that these steering conditions play out, than I'd think that a significant threat could play out along the N. Gulf coast somewhere between the W. Fla. Panhandle and E. Louisiana.

If the high is situated at the Carolinas, and 99L does indeed get its act together and start rolling around the islands, the current GFS solution is very much plausible.

Back to the waiting game, it's late

[floridasun78]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/766862390625435648

i wont go cazy looking that because you seen how show that now and monday show it other area like north carolina

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such

[chaser1]

I was typing and had not even seen the completion of the 0Z run until just now. We need to keep in mind that most of us largely anticipated that closer in development would most likely occur rather than a great deal of E. Atlantic activity this season. Though I wouldn't have guessed a primary cause to be related to SAL again, it nonetheless appears to at minimum be impacting tropical systems from forming farther east at this time. Contrary to last year however, we have seen fairly consistant data this season indicating a good deal of greater instability in the upper atmosphere over the Caribbean and W. Atlantic. Assuming that all other factors remain normal to favorable, but with a clear indication that dryer air will most likely continue to hamper development further east, then I have to assume that the net effect will simply equate to numerous threats to the U.S. (as well as the Caribbean and Bahamas), especially in the near term while the MJO would appear to be a negative factor. Perhaps if we're all lucky, we'll begin to see the SAL wane during September and also begin to anticipate the MJO shifting to favor greater upper atmospheric instability over the Atlantic basin. Then, perhaps we'll begin to see development begin with greater ease - further east. Depending on the overall longwave pattern, our saving grace might just be that like Fiona appears to be doing, other developing storms east of 50W might just also feel the tug of a mid Atlantic weakness and turn poleward long before becoming a threat to the Antilles.

Of course............ then comes October (and a different game).

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF has nothing to show through 93 hours.

Edit - starting to cook at hour 99 as it nears the islands.

[Bocadude85]

HWRF has nothing to show through 93 hours.

Edit - starting to cook at hour 99 as it nears the islands.

0z HWRF has a hurricane in the SE Caribbean Sea

[USTropics]

Can i get a answer DID THE UKMET DROP THIS OR DEVELOP IT

Sat Aug 20 01:34:16 EDT 2016

391 WTNT80 EGRR 200418
MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

Code: Select all

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.08.2016
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 18.4N  64.6W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 24.08.2016  18.4N  64.6W     WEAK
 00UTC 25.08.2016  19.3N  68.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 25.08.2016  21.1N  71.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 26.08.2016  22.5N  74.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

[Siker]

Initialization on the 00z Euro:

[USTropics]

Strongest signature of vorticity shown on the ECMWF in the past 4 runs at 24 hours, let's see if that is the difference:

[Bocadude85]

Strongest signature of vorticity shown on the ECMWF in the past 4 runs at 24 hours, let's see if that is the difference:

Was just about to post this. Much better defined then at 12Z

[Kingarabian]

Looks almost the same through 48 hours.

[USTropics]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/766874208181719040

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks almost the same through 48 hours.

Slightly more vorticity to it and maybe further north.

[Siker]

High res plots show it's definitely a little better organized vorticity wise at 48 hours.

[Bocadude85]

Even more organized at 72 hours

[Kingarabian]

Almost looks like yesterday's 00z run through 72 hours.