ATL: HERMINE - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 132...Hello Puerto Rico

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Well north this run.

[USTropics]

Big difference in the low-level vorticity consolidating more north around 96 hours as well as a slight uptick in forward speed means this will not cross over Haiti but will rake PR. At 144 hours on 18z GFS run, 99L would have to head due west to directly impact Haiti:



Compared to the 12z run:

[SouthFLTropics]

Don't think this run will be good for Florida. Mid Atlantic looks to have a decent ridge in place.

[Bocadude85]

Might be out to sea on this run

[SouthFLTropics]

Might be out to sea on this run

I don't think so...unless that shortwave over the plains digs east and erodes the western periphery of the ridge.

[AJC3]

Might be out to sea on this run

Highly unlikely with that strong H50 high center over the SE and mid Atlantic. We'll see here in a few...

[USTropics]

One other big difference in this run, the system to 99L's northeast is quite a bit more developed on this run:

[tolakram]

If the curve is the same this might brush NC but I don't think it heads into Florida.

[AJC3]

Interesting...at H174, it looks to miss the Turks/Caicos to the east...

Looks like there's a big weakness that develops between 60-70W due to a digging short wave trough over the Atlantic, to its NE

[JaxGator]

To me at H-192, it's still heading WNW. Imo.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a 500mb ridge over Carolinas

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like a 500mb ridge over Carolinas

Yep...it's not going too far north with that ridge in place.

[gatorcane]

GFS down to 934mb near Bahamas

[gatorcane]

GFS down to 927mb heading WNW

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS down to 934mb near Bahamas

I saw a 927 at 210 hours.

[USTropics]

I don't see a recurve this run

[gatorcane]

Yikes