Tropical wave wsw of CV Islands (Pouch 21L) Invest 99L is up

[tolakram]

We have a rule about model storms but this not only was modeled it had a pouch assigned and the feature can be tracked. Very similar to someone watching a feature not modeled at all. I don't see anything wrong with a thread dedicated to following an actual feature.

You can look at the pouch designations here: http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms ... antic.html

Saved image of the current pouches

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS seems to want to try to develop this, would probably not have much of a chance until the western Caribbean

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[Blown Away]

I see 99L coming soon...

[Siker]

Models seem to be slowly deciding that this will not get totally shredded /elongated between Fiona and 22L. The latest Euro tracks a distinct area of vorticity across the MDR and into the northern Lesser Antilles. The GFS has slowly trended more defined / separated with this wave, but is currently the weakest solution. Both of these models had their ensemble support for this wave increase at 00z.

00z CMC and 00z UKMET both develop this into a tropical cyclone.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like chances may be increasing of something developing from this and decreasing for Pouch 22L.

[Siker]

Pretty large increase in support from the 06z GFS ensembles. Every member depicts a low associated with this area, with about half eventually developing a tropical cyclone. You can see the formative low pressure depicted here:

[TheStormExpert]

Just one ensemble member from the 06z GEFS but it shows a strike on south Florida.

[Siker]

06z NAVGEM and 00z FIM-9 also develop this, FWIW.

[Siker]

Joe Bastardi discusses 21L in his latest video, saying it's the one to watch for potential land impact. Something he pointed out that I hadn't noticed when looking at the Euro ensembles is that the control run actually brings this all the way into the Gulf as a wave before developing into a broad cyclone off the Texas Coast.

[StormHunter72]

Joe Bastardi discusses 21L in his latest video, saying it's the one to watch for potential land impact. Something he pointed out that I hadn't noticed when looking at the Euro ensembles is that the control run actually brings this all the way into the Gulf as a wave before developing into a broad cyclone off the Texas Coast.

That is very entertaining..

[Javlin]

Just one ensemble member from the 06z GEFS but it shows a strike on south Florida.

Well that's not good and yes it will change down the road it's that trend.I would say from the Carolina's to the tip of Texas need to start preparing we have six weeks to contend with.

[Siker]

Depression entering the Eastern Caribbean on the 12z GFS:

[Siker]

12z UKMET has this developing within range of its text output:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.9N 49.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 23.08.2016 12.9N 51.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 23.08.2016 12.9N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 24.08.2016 13.5N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 24.08.2016 14.2N 59.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[Siker]

Headed for Puerto Rico as a tropical storm:

[Siker]

Intensifying as it leaves the Mona Passage:

[Siker]

12z CMC misses the Caribbean to the Northeast:

[JtSmarts]

Looks like a microcane (size not intensity) like Danny on the GFS.

[JtSmarts]

12z CMC misses the Caribbean to the Northeast:

Out of curiosity where did that storm off the Carolina coast come from? Is that just a CMC phantom?

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z CMC misses the Caribbean to the Northeast:

Out of curiosity where did that storm off the Carolina coast come from? Is that just a CMC phantom?

GFS showed some vorticity in previous runs going into the Gulf of Mexico. I think it was yesterday but it was too far north to do much.

[Siker]

12z CMC misses the Caribbean to the Northeast:

Out of curiosity where did that storm off the Carolina coast come from? Is that just a CMC phantom?

Yes, that is a phantom (the one to its north is Fiona).