ATL: FIONA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

FYI, there's a low bias with ASCAT, especially with smaller systems.

Not necessarily with systems lacking significant convection. Convection is currently quite weak. Highest ASCAT wind was 25 kts. I can't find any 30kt flags. No way this qualifies as a TS. It may have been stronger overnight, though.

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow:

I think that's because it runs into a wall of strong shear. And the Euro pretty much takes it to a latitude that even if it survives the shear it'll miss the GOM where conditions are favorable.

On the other hand, there have been a number of noteable past hurricanes which have reached a position of approx. 22N and 55W that did make landfall on the CONUS East Coast, some having significant impact.

There have been H's that were near 22N, 55W, that later hit the CONUS east coast but note that no MDR TS+ on record that moved at 315+ degrees between any two 6 hourly positions east of around 48W made it all of the way to the CONUS as a TC. So, I'm looking to see if there will be any NW movement of TD 6 anytime soon.

Frances in 2004 being quite the example and This storm might just do something similar but recurve about 10 degrees farther east which would definitely put Bermuda in the crosshairs so for anyone on the east coast and Bermuda maybe even a slight chance the Bahamas should monitor this for model track changes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hurricaneman]

the 12zGFS shows the weakness in at 48hrs but is still heading WNW

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[terrapintransit]

If it stays weak chances are it will track more west.

[Blown Away]

Many examples of classified systems near TD6 that didn't vertically stack per NHC's expectations and they had to begin bending track west to account for a more shallow system... Hard to go against the Euro and IMO TD6 not looking as robust ATM.

[weathaguyry]

On the other hand, there have been a number of noteable past hurricanes which have reached a position of approx. 22N and 55W that did make landfall on the CONUS East Coast, some having significant impact.

There have been H's that were near 22N, 55W, that later hit the CONUS east coast but note that no MDR TS+ on record that moved at 315+ degrees between any two 6 hourly positions east of around 48W made it all of the way to the CONUS as a TC. So, I'm looking to see if there will be any NW movement of TD 6 anytime soon.

Frances in 2004 being quite the example and This storm might just do something similar but recurve about 10 degrees farther east which would definitely put Bermuda in the crosshairs so for anyone on the east coast and Bermuda maybe even a slight chance the Bahamas should monitor this for model track changes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I agree, and also, the SST's along the Long Island coast (where I live) are about 80F/26C, so for sure something to keep an eye on, especially if this decides to strengthen farther west in the basin

[JaxGator]

Building more convection around the center. The storm looks fine to me and the cone has also shifted more south on the latest advisory.

Note that the "cone' merely identifies track error (66.7 percentile) over the previous 5 years, it has nothing to do with the current levels of uncertainty with this (or any) potential storm. In this case, uncertainty would be a little higher than normal. The center could very easily track south/west of the current cone. In fact, ensemble guidance is centered on a track taking it to 20N/60W in 5-6 days - but as a TD or remnant low, not a TS. It will likely continue to struggle.

Thanks, that is interesting. The cone flip flops and it's not certain. The more uncertainty will make it more interesting to track. I think it could find better conditions down the road depending on how they are then.

[Alyono]

I do not think this is guaranteed to ever receive a name

[gatorcane]

CMC still going with a hurricane between Florida and Bermuda in the long-range.

I do see tracks are shifting west with time due to models agreeing with the ECMWF on a more shallow system instead.

Another thing I see with the latest GFS run is that is no longer showing a persistent "Bermuda low" in the long-range. It shows a trough over the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. this weekend which starts to pull out early next week then the model is too far out to know for sure how much the Bermuda High builds back or not when we look into mid to late next week.

That's why beyond about 5 days and certainly beyond a week, I don't put much faith in what the models are showing.

[AutoPenalti]

I do not think this is guaranteed to ever receive a name

As much as I want to agree with you, there's always that small window of opportunity that this could deepen, at this moment, it's all about whether it can survive big bad SAL.

[Caneman12]

I do not think this is guaranteed to ever receive a name

As much as I want to agree with you, there's always that small window of opportunity that this could deepen, at this moment, it's all about whether it can survive big bad SAL.

I think this has a chance at a moderate tropical storm

[znel52]

I think it gets to at least a minimal TS at some point it isn't far off. Looks to be making a little bit of a comeback on the last few images.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Nimbus]

The previous tropical waves have been sharpening up and attempting to close off west of -50.
This system is already a TD and the subtropical ridge may migrate west and reduce some of that southerly shear that destroyed the last wave.
Hopefully if it does spin up it will make a track change toward a weakness and not get trapped under a ridge.

[LarryWx]

On the other hand, there have been a number of noteable past hurricanes which have reached a position of approx. 22N and 55W that did make landfall on the CONUS East Coast, some having significant impact.

There have been H's that were near 22N, 55W, that later hit the CONUS east coast but note that no MDR TS+ on record that moved at 315+ degrees between any two 6 hourly positions east of around 48W made it all of the way to the CONUS as a TC. So, I'm looking to see if there will be any NW movement of TD 6 anytime soon.

Frances in 2004 being quite the example and This storm might just do something similar but recurve about 10 degrees farther east which would definitely put Bermuda in the crosshairs so for anyone on the east coast and Bermuda maybe even a slight chance the Bahamas should monitor this for model track changes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Here are three interesting stoms that are similar to the early part of TD 6's track:

1. Fred of 2009 http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
Fred was quite the fascinating storm because it did move NW before 35W, almost made it to the CONUS as a TC, and it did actually make it as an entity along the SE coast (I experienced it)!

2. Esther of 1961: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
The current and projected WNW movement of TD 6 is very similar to Esther through 50W. Esther did go on to hit eastern New England about 10 days after it was near the current position of TD #6.

3. Storm #5 of 1906: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
The current and projected WNW movement of TD 6 is somewhat similar to storm #5 of 1906 through 50W. This storm went on to hit SC as a H about 13 days later from when it was near the current position of TD #6. This storm has the distinction of moving in a full NW direction (315 degrees+) about as far east (48w) as any storm on record that later hit the CONUS.

Although I think that the odds are very low for TD #6 to make it to the CONUS as an intact entity, these three storms tell me to not write it off just yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Models continue to shift west. GFS now similar to the Euro stalling east of the bahamas. still weak but thats the difficult part to get.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro keeps it weak but does not dissipate it yet. I would say minimal tropical storm within 48 hours but it's just a guess.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro more bullish through 48hrs. @ 1004mb.

[tolakram]

Sub 1000 at 60 hours via weatherbell.

One thing to keep in mind is if a model gets the track wrong the intensity errors can be huge. The west shift must be taking this into slightly improved conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF even farther west and begins a wnw motion towards end.

[znel52]

Did look pretty rough a few hours ago but right now it is really quite beautiful on vis satellite imagery. That large band off to the storms North that is helping keep at least some of that dry air from intruding. You can see the moist inflow being sucked into the storms circ from the south. I really hope this storm affects no one but I really love watching these things!