Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Alyono]

In order for anything to form, the MJO has to move out of the WPAC. If it does not move, the WPAC will continue to crank out storm after storm, while the Atlantic remains dead

[NDG]

In order for anything to form, the MJO has to move out of the WPAC. If it does not move, the WPAC will continue to crank out storm after storm, while the Atlantic remains dead

So is this your forecast, a dead Atlantic over the next couple of weeks? Because both the European and NCEP models show the MJO to stay over the Western Pacific over the next couple of weeks.

[SFLcane]

In order for anything to form, the MJO has to move out of the WPAC. If it does not move, the WPAC will continue to crank out storm after storm, while the Atlantic remains dead

Frankly I think it's much more then this.. Atlantic is so independent of the mjo just to produce a single TC. It's really rediculous what this basin has become.

[Kingarabian]

Seeing what that disturbance has done to Lousiana makes me happy that the Atlantic Ocean is struggling to produce storms.

[Alyono]

In order for anything to form, the MJO has to move out of the WPAC. If it does not move, the WPAC will continue to crank out storm after storm, while the Atlantic remains dead

So is this your forecast, a dead Atlantic over the next couple of weeks? Because both the European and NCEP models show the MJO to stay over the Western Pacific over the next couple of weeks.

we could have that far east Atlantic disturbance briefly develop. But it will have to remain in the east Atlantic do do anything.

I seem to recall that happening last year as well...

[LarryWx]

In order for anything to form, the MJO has to move out of the WPAC. If it does not move, the WPAC will continue to crank out storm after storm, while the Atlantic remains dead

Whereas phase 6 isn't the most favorable phase for genesis in August, keep in mind that the Atlantic still produced at least one TS about half the time when there was a phase 6 in August going back to 1975 (where the model forecast consensus is concentrated), including three H hits on the US: Belle of 1976, Charley of 1986, and Charley of 2004.

1976: Belle
1981: Dennis
1986: Charley
1990: Hortense
1993: Bret
2004: Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl
2005: Irene

[NDG]

Conditions are not so bad right now on our side of the world, seem to be near average with all the sinking motion over the Indian Ocean, which makes sense because the system over the gulf coast dumped a lot of rains thanks to strong divergence in the upper levels.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the MDR might be more busy than expected looking at the models

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[Alyono]

Looks like the MDR might be more busy than expected looking at the models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

and like last year, models are showing no threat to the western part of the basin from anything forming near CV

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the MDR might be more busy than expected looking at the models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

and like last year, models are showing no threat to the western part of the basin from anything forming near CV

What about Erika? Even though it formed further west in the Tropical Atlantic.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like the MDR might be more busy than expected looking at the models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

and like last year, models are showing no threat to the western part of the basin from anything forming near CV

You are right it seems to be the new normal in the Atlantic recently. Either very weak storms in the western basin or OTS. Things can change in a hurry though. So, do you see any threats at all in the western part of the basin this season?

[Alyono]

Looks like the MDR might be more busy than expected looking at the models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

and like last year, models are showing no threat to the western part of the basin from anything forming near CV

You are right it seems to be the new normal in the Atlantic recently. Either very weak storms in the western basin or OTS. Things can change in a hurry though. So, do you see any threats at all in the western part of the basin this season?

yes, main threats are still in the Gulf. We had a Gulf system this week cause massive flooding. A couple of hundred miles to the south, and it is probably a cat 4 or 5

[tarheelprogrammer]

and like last year, models are showing no threat to the western part of the basin from anything forming near CV

You are right it seems to be the new normal in the Atlantic recently. Either very weak storms in the western basin or OTS. Things can change in a hurry though. So, do you see any threats at all in the western part of the basin this season?

yes, main threats are still in the Gulf. We had a Gulf system this week cause massive flooding. A couple of hundred miles to the south, and it is probably a cat 4 or 5

Thanks for your input.

[SFLcane]

All I know is it's gonna have to be one heck of peak season to come close to NOAA's seasonal prediction. Personally I think there is something much depear going on in the Atlantic for whatever reason everything is a struggle the stars have to alein right just to get a minimal tropical storm these days. Completely agree with gulfcoast flooding just a few miles S and it could have been a powerful hurricane but goes to show even a TD can cause substantial damage. I just can't see 5-6 more hurricanes with the " current" conditions. It's interesting shear was below normal across the Caribbean and gulf for most of June and July but has since increased. I'd just like to know what's going on basin wide.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looks like the MDR might be more busy than expected looking at the models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

and like last year, models are showing no threat to the western part of the basin from anything forming near CV

You are right it seems to be the new normal in the Atlantic recently. Either very weak storms in the western basin or OTS. Things can change in a hurry though. So, do you see any threats at all in the western part of the basin this season?

It's not the new normal, it's the normal. Cape Verde storms are overwhelmingly likely to head out to sea. Storms like Ike or Isabel are the exception, not the rule.

[cycloneye]

and like last year, models are showing no threat to the western part of the basin from anything forming near CV

You are right it seems to be the new normal in the Atlantic recently. Either very weak storms in the western basin or OTS. Things can change in a hurry though. So, do you see any threats at all in the western part of the basin this season?

It's not the new normal, it's the normal. Cape Verde storms are overwhelmingly likely to head out to sea. Storms like Ike or Isabel are the exception, not the rule.

Don't forget Georges.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=1998_georges_loop

[tarheelprogrammer]

and like last year, models are showing no threat to the western part of the basin from anything forming near CV

You are right it seems to be the new normal in the Atlantic recently. Either very weak storms in the western basin or OTS. Things can change in a hurry though. So, do you see any threats at all in the western part of the basin this season?

It's not the new normal, it's the normal. Cape Verde storms are overwhelmingly likely to head out to sea. Storms like Ike or Isabel are the exception, not the rule.

Someone posted a graphic in this thread here that shows it is happening a lot more frequently than in the past the last 10 years or so. Forget who posted it but it was in July I think.

[psyclone]

All I know is it's gonna have to be one heck of peak season to come close to NOAA's seasonal prediction. Personally I think there is something much depear going on in the Atlantic for whatever reason everything is a struggle the stars have to alein right just to get a minimal tropical storm these days. Completely agree with gulfcoast flooding just a few miles S and it could have been a powerful hurricane but goes to show even a TD can cause substantial damage. I just can't see 5-6 more hurricanes with the " current" conditions. It's interesting shear was below normal across the Caribbean and gulf for most of June and July but has since increased. I'd just like to know what's going on basin wide.

I think you bring up valid points. things do need to change. But they usually do change. We can hit NOAA's numbers pretty easily if things get favorable in the heart of the season...we can rip off 4 or 5 storms in a couple of weeks. Right now it's just a matter of hanging in there and seeing if those conditions are able to establish themselves. I haven't a clue what's going to happen. that's why I'm here. But I have cautioned folks not to pull the curtain BEFORE things should be active. Now things are getting interesting. it's show time. the Atlantic should be getting active. especially the latter third of August. That's prime time. As I said a few days ago, the slow season folks get big points in my book if the latter third of August is dead. Let's see what happens...or doesn't.

[LarryWx]

If we get Fiona out of 98L soon, that would make 5 NS for 2016 so far excluding Alex. 1998-2000 still only had 3-4 NS as of 8/21. So, in terms of NS (not ACE), we'd be ahead of those active three seasons. In 1998, the 5th NS didn't exist til 8/31. 1999's wasn't til 8/24, and 2000's wasn't til 9/2.

[Alyono]

to get any East coast threats, we'll need a Bermuda high. MU is forecasting a Bermuda low