2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Out to 384 hours...Looking like a very active period ahead. MJO forecast to strengthen over the area and amplify for most of the next 2 weeks with the possibility of a Kelvin Wave crossing over too...

[euro6208]

TSR maintains its previous outlooks and predicts the 2016 Northwest Pacific typhoon
season will be quiet with activity well below the 1965-2015 climate norm.

August update from TSR.

Still forecasting 22 TS, 13 TY, and 7 MTY with an ACE of 231...

Only difference from last month's update is a decrease of 8 in ACE...

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[stormwise]

You can understand looking at the sat-pic why the models looked crazy in the solutions, vorts are plenty atm.

[dexterlabio]

You can understand looking at the sat-pic why the models looked crazy in the solutions, vorts are plenty atm.

Nice picture! Not sure if this is comparable to the one that spawned last year's trio of July typhoons, but this one looks a lot crazier... Imagine those spins becoming bonafide TC's, the models wouldn't be so crazy after all...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Good old GFS...

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/763325946652790784

[Kingarabian]

Smilar to what happened to the EPAC in July, is happening to the WPAC although it's MJO enhanced activity.

Unfortunately the WPAC can always be on steroids so the storms come out stronger and thus land areas may be harmed.

[euro6208]

Good old GFS...

It was forecasting 892 mb for 00Z run....

Lower to 882mb? Now that's something...

Both runs indicate a devastating strike for Taiwan...

[euro6208]

EURO also on board with a very intense typhoon in the P.I Sea...



All in all it develops 4 more TC's including this one not designated as invests...

GFS almost similiar except it has a direct hit for Okinawa at 384 hours from another Typhoon...

[euro6208]

The WPAC off the charts as usual. Still the #1 spot globally for TC's...Still amazes me...

[euro6208]

The outbreak continues....

[1900hurricane]

The latest GFS and CMC are going monsoon gyre mode again. I'd probably lean away from such a solution since similar solutions have shown up and failed to verify so far these past couple of weeks. The ECMWF really hasn't shown the gyre solution that I can remember lately, so today's 12Z run (which is currently running) may provide a nice measuring stick.

[euro6208]

That monsoon over the WPAC literally eating up the whole basin.

[euro6208]

[stormwise]

hko has a cyclone in the south china sea in 2 days.

[euro6208]

The models have been showing this for some runs now making landfall west of Hong Kong.

CMC stalls a strengthening typhoon south of HK for 6 days and moves inland...

EURO 988 mb into Leizhou Peninsula north of Hainan.

NAVGEM similiar to EURO on typhoon moving west.

[euro6208]

The latest GFS and CMC are going monsoon gyre mode again. I'd probably lean away from such a solution since similar solutions have shown up and failed to verify so far these past couple of weeks. The ECMWF really hasn't shown the gyre solution that I can remember lately, so today's 12Z run (which is currently running) may provide a nice measuring stick.

EURO also on board with this. Similiar to what happen earlier this month when Omais. Like the rain and winds will never stop.



Has 5 developing in the basin...

[euro6208]

GFS on 7 drug storms developing one after another...

NAVGEM still on the outbreak develops 3 more...

CMC close to 10 storms overall...

[euro6208]

:uarrow:

The models have been showing this for some runs now making landfall west of Hong Kong.

CMC stalls a strengthening typhoon south of HK for 6 days and moves inland...

EURO 988 mb into Leizhou Peninsula north of Hainan.

NAVGEM similiar to EURO on typhoon moving west.

Large system southeast of Hong Kong. Should be an invest soon.

[1900hurricane]

The storm names are coming at a good clip now, but most aren't doing too much intensity-wise so far, which is shades of '99 a little. Still, we'll probably end up blowing '99 out of the water at least (that year only ended up with 110 units of ACE, the lowest I'm aware of in the WPac).

[stormwise]

# EURO6208 looking at the sat-pic you posted it looks a monsoon depression in the south china sea , have not been really following the main models in the WPAC over the past few days there's been to much convention going on and the models have had a rough time of it with solutions.