2016 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms is located
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This disturbance is expected
to move west-northwestward and merge with the remnants of Atlantic
Tropical Storm Earl, and an area of low pressure is forecast to form
near the southwestern coast of Mexico over the weekend. Conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form early next week while the low moves northwestward
toward the Baja California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms is located
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This disturbance is expected to move
west-northwestward and merge with the remnants of Atlantic Tropical
Storm Earl, forming an area of low pressure near the southwestern
coast of Mexico over the weekend. Conditions are conducive for
this system to become a tropical depression early next week while it
moves northwestward toward the Baja California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms is located
near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This disturbance is expected to move
west-northwestward and merge with the remnants of Atlantic Tropical
Storm Earl, forming an area of low pressure near the southwestern
coast of Mexico over the weekend. Conditions are conducive for
this system to become a tropical depression early next week while it
moves northwestward toward the Baja California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Darvince]

I was thinking it was odd that it wasn't an invest yet and then I actually read the thing and saw that they are talking about the current Tropical Storm Earl. It would be quite weird to have a tropical storm tagged as an invest.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS have our J and K storms of the season within 240 hours. No break for the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extends near
the southern coast of Mexico between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and
Manzanillo. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward
and merge with the remnants of Atlantic Tropical Depression Earl,
forming an area of low pressure near the southwestern coast of
Mexico during the next day or so. Conditions are conducive for this
system to become a tropical depression early next week while it
moves northwestward toward the Baja California peninsula.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

Invest 93E is up

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like the EPAC might finally be in for a break after Javier dissipates?

[Darvince]

Even the CMC isn't too excited about the prospects of anything forming in the next 10 days..

[Kingarabian]

Euro has another weak TS in a week.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the big outbreak that was present for the past few weeks is almost dead and now a quiet period comes.

[TheStormExpert]

With Javier likely to be the 3rd consecutive named storm in a row in the East Pacific to not obtain hurricane status I think it is becoming more likely than not that the East Pacific is finally calming down.

Hopefully this allows the Atlantic to wake up some in the coming weeks as we quickly approach the peak.

[hurricanes1234]

Personally I'm thinking the EPAC will pick back up late this month and hopefully allow us to see some quality fish storms again like Blas which don't threaten land.

[Yellow Evan]

Personally I'm thinking the EPAC will pick back up late this month and hopefully allow us to see some quality fish storms again like Blas which don't threaten land.

MJO should move in from the WPAC in about 2 weeks.

[NDG]

I personally think that July was the peak for the EPAC season, may see another peak when the MJO visits our part of the world but nothing like July, IMO.

[hurricanes1234]

I personally think that July was the peak for the EPAC season, may see another peak when the MJO visits our part of the world but nothing like July, IMO.

Agreed, although it might just be enough to bring about one or two more nice fishes.

[Ntxw]

With the 96-97 units EPAC is running a little ahead of last year. I checked the ACE thread for 2015 and by Aug 7th 2015 it was sitting around 84 units. The triplets (Ignacio, Kilo, Jimena) then racked up another 100+ units in August though...

[hurricanes1234]

What's this?

An area of low pressure could form about 1500 miles east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands late this week or weekend. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some slow
development of this system while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Kingarabian]

Euro has been showing it for the last 5 or so runs now. GFS is on and off. Has ensemble support. Stays weak though.

[cycloneye]

A weak area of low pressure could form about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Hawaiian Islands late this week or weekend.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some gradual development of this system while it moves slowly west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent