ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

If I remember correctly, Harvey was hit with northerly shear as it was making landfall.
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc11/ATL/08L.H ... .100pc.jpg

I think wind-wise, Earl is probably holding steady if not weakening despite the pressure dropping.

the difference. this ran out of room the others ran into hostile environments.

also the pressure is dropping because convection is increasing that not weakening..

Despite the pressure drop Earl seems to be struggling to form a solid inner core similarly to many of 2012's storms, which is certainly good news for Belize and Mexico.

Yes but I do not believe it is weakening. If anything it looks like there is some small strengthening. Thankfully it is not RI.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 040228
AF301 0705A EARL HDOB 40 20160804
021800 1721N 08806W 6965 03117 0029 +103 +103 010055 056 038 011 00
021830 1718N 08806W 6970 03113 0026 +099 //// 009056 058 046 006 01
021900 1716N 08806W 6971 03111 0026 +101 //// 011058 058 047 005 01
021930 1714N 08806W 6967 03116 0027 +101 +101 008057 059 040 009 03
022000 1712N 08806W 6968 03116 0032 +101 +101 005059 060 036 012 00
022030 1709N 08807W 6967 03117 0024 +103 +103 006058 060 036 009 00
022100 1707N 08807W 6966 03122 0036 +102 +102 001052 056 037 012 00
022130 1705N 08807W 6967 03121 0042 +100 +100 355047 049 035 008 00
022200 1703N 08807W 6967 03123 0042 +094 //// 350048 049 034 007 01
022230 1701N 08808W 6966 03133 //// +092 //// 346047 048 032 003 01
022300 1659N 08808W 6965 03137 //// +091 //// 345043 047 029 003 01
022330 1656N 08808W 6969 03134 //// +094 //// 342040 042 025 002 01
022400 1654N 08808W 6966 03140 0030 +093 +093 340040 040 023 002 01
022430 1652N 08808W 6968 03142 0042 +093 //// 338039 040 022 004 01
022500 1650N 08809W 6967 03144 0058 +089 //// 337036 039 028 005 01
022530 1648N 08809W 6967 03147 0048 +093 //// 333035 035 045 007 01
022600 1646N 08809W 6968 03145 0056 +098 +098 329037 037 028 005 00
022630 1644N 08809W 6967 03149 0072 +096 +096 325036 038 022 007 00
022700 1642N 08809W 6972 03145 0067 +096 +096 320032 036 023 007 00
022730 1640N 08810W 6965 03155 0079 +091 +091 316029 031 022 008 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

If I remember correctly, Harvey was hit with northerly shear as it was making landfall.
http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc11/ATL/08L.H ... .100pc.jpg

I think wind-wise, Earl is probably holding steady if not weakening despite the pressure dropping.

the difference. this ran out of room the others ran into hostile environments.

also the pressure is dropping because convection is increasing that not weakening..

Despite the pressure drop Earl seems to be struggling to form a solid inner core similarly to many of 2012's storms, which is certainly good news for Belize and Mexico.

its forming an inner core quite nicely. just running out of room. completely different setup as this has ideal conditions to deepen vs past systems in this area.

[gatorcane]

Saved image just before landfall. Wow haven't seen something look this good in the Caribbean in years. Symmetric banding and deep convection:

[Nimbus]

Glad this is moving inland quickly just hours away fro RI if it had stayed over water.
San Pedro island looks like it is getting those NE quadrant hurricane winds.
Not sure if Belize city received any flood surge but the effects should be minimal there.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL NEARING THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 87.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued all warnings for the
coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Earl was located
by an an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.4
North, longitude 87.6 West. Earl is moving toward the west near 15
mph (24 km/h), and a westward or slightly north of westward motion
with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next 48
hours. On the forecast track, the center of Earl will move inland
over Belize within the next few hours, and move over the southern
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico or northern Guatemala on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall, and
Earl will begin to weaken after it moves inland over Belize on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will reach Belize and Mexico within
the hurricane and tropical storm warning areas in a couple of hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the hurricane
warning area in Belize and Mexico tonight.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 8 to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and
the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz
between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum
amounts of 18 inches are possible in Mexico and Belize. These rains
could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

Earl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar
this evening. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb
flight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65
kt, and this is used for the advisory intensity. Belize radar
imagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open
and closed structure over the past several hours. There is little
time left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the
coast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before
landfall. A steady weakening trend will commence after the
tropical cyclone moves inland. Based on the latest track
guidance, the center is forecast to only barely emerge into the
extreme southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and this should limit
reintensification at that time. Earl is expected to become a
remnant low and dissipate over the high mountains of south-central
Mexico by the weekend or sooner.

Earl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt.
The cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the
south of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure
system. Little change has been made to the previous official
forecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the
multi-model consensus.

After landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall. Global
models depict the system becoming enveloped within a much
larger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico
in a couple of days. This weather pattern will likely lead to
copious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches
possible.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 17.4N 87.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 17.7N 89.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 18.2N 91.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 18.8N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 07/0000Z 20.0N 98.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 040258
AF301 0705A EARL HDOB 43 20160804
024800 1659N 08743W 6960 03093 9989 +112 +112 297040 047 056 037 00
024830 1701N 08742W 6971 03070 9977 +108 //// 298032 041 060 031 05
024900 1702N 08741W 6966 03071 9956 +107 //// 285032 033 058 014 05
024930 1704N 08740W 6975 03057 //// +105 //// 290034 035 048 006 01
025000 1705N 08739W 6965 03058 //// +108 //// 288034 035 046 003 01
025030 1707N 08739W 6967 03047 9893 +122 +105 283033 034 040 001 00
025100 1709N 08738W 6967 03037 9871 +131 +111 277030 033 041 004 05
025130 1711N 08737W 6970 03016 9830 +141 +134 275024 028 041 004 00
025200 1712N 08737W 6967 03009 9823 +143 +128 261010 021 017 002 03
025230 1714N 08737W 6969 03001 9816 +144 +119 160001 004 011 001 03
025300 1716N 08738W 6965 03001 9814 +143 +112 107013 016 014 001 03
025330 1718N 08738W 6967 02998 9810 +144 +113 100020 023 009 001 00
025400 1720N 08739W 6963 03001 9809 +146 +118 093028 030 012 001 00
025430 1721N 08740W 6967 03001 9815 +146 +112 082037 041 038 002 00
025500 1723N 08741W 6969 03007 9830 +141 +107 069048 051 043 003 00
025530 1724N 08742W 6963 03026 9850 +132 +107 067058 060 050 004 00
025600 1726N 08743W 6967 03029 9867 +124 +112 067062 064 052 004 00
025630 1727N 08744W 6967 03036 9904 +119 //// 066063 066 052 004 01
025700 1729N 08745W 6964 03048 //// +109 //// 063060 065 053 003 01
025730 1730N 08746W 6969 03054 9915 +112 +096 063070 071 077 007 03
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

Last pass showed SFMR of 77 and FL winds of 71.

[Aric Dunn]

winds finally responding to pressure..

very inner NE eyewall..

025730 1730N 08746W 6969 03054 9915 +112 +096 063070 071 077 007 03

and 980 on pressure.

looks like we might by the time landfall happens see 85 to 90 mph. but no recon to verify so this last pass will likely be 80mph for landfall strength.

[Hammy]

winds finally responding to pressure..

very inner NE eyewall..

025730 1730N 08746W 6969 03054 9915 +112 +096 063070 071 077 007 03

Right after the advisory to... Would this show up in the 2am then?

[CrazyC83]

winds finally responding to pressure..

very inner NE eyewall..

025730 1730N 08746W 6969 03054 9915 +112 +096 063070 071 077 007 03

Right after the advisory to... Would this show up in the 2am then?

Perhaps or the landfall update if it is before then.

[Aric Dunn]

also its doing a classic wsw wobble that happens when system deepen do to some rotational effects. if it had 12 more hours could easily have hit cat 2 border 3..

[Chris_in_Tampa]

77 knot SFMR was noted as suspect because it was over land. There are a lot of islands and shallow waters around. Keep that in mind.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

77 knot SFMR was suspect, over land again.

[TheAustinMan]

That 77 kt SFMR observation was flagged (as having suspect SFMR readings), and appears to have been taken over a cay, which would have altered reliable readings quite a bit.

[Aric Dunn]

That 77 kt SFMR observation was flagged (as having suspect SFMR readings), and appears to have been taken over a cay, which would have altered reliable readings quite a bit.

agreed. however the FL was 71 so its not far off.

[Kazmit]

Strange. The NHC no longer shows Earl re-strengthening into a tropical storm over the Bay of Campeche

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 040308
AF301 0705A EARL HDOB 44 20160804
025800 1732N 08747W 6970 03063 9925 +113 +082 064071 072 063 005 03
025830 1733N 08748W 6965 03075 9938 +112 +078 065067 069 056 002 00
025900 1735N 08749W 6964 03082 9943 +111 +084 068064 067 048 000 00
025930 1736N 08750W 6970 03083 9949 +109 +092 066062 062 048 001 00
030000 1738N 08751W 6963 03094 //// +102 //// 067061 062 048 001 01
030030 1739N 08752W 6967 03094 //// +106 //// 068059 060 051 002 01
030100 1741N 08753W 6968 03099 9972 +107 +087 067060 061 051 001 03
030130 1742N 08754W 6962 03110 9973 +108 +090 067056 060 /// /// 03
030200 1741N 08757W 6966 03108 9977 +109 +090 064055 056 /// /// 03
030230 1739N 08757W 6971 03100 9975 +109 +086 058053 054 046 003 00
030300 1737N 08758W 6966 03104 9970 +110 +087 052052 053 047 001 00
030330 1735N 08758W 6967 03099 9968 +110 +085 048051 052 043 003 00
030400 1733N 08759W 6967 03096 9966 +108 +080 043052 052 044 002 00
030430 1731N 08759W 6968 03091 9967 +105 +085 043053 053 045 002 00
030500 1729N 08759W 6966 03093 9960 +106 +090 040052 053 046 002 00
030530 1727N 08759W 6967 03087 9956 +110 +087 036052 052 044 001 00
030600 1725N 08759W 6969 03083 9954 +107 +087 030052 053 043 002 00
030630 1722N 08759W 6965 03086 9954 +106 +084 024052 053 044 002 00
030700 1720N 08759W 6963 03086 9955 +105 +086 019053 053 045 001 00
030730 1718N 08800W 6966 03085 9958 +098 +094 013053 053 044 001 01
$$
;

[USTropics]

It has been 1,379 days since we've seen a hurricane impact the Caribbean (Sandy - October 24 2012).

The GOM remains in the longest Hurricane drought dating back 130 years (1054 days - Hurricane Ingrid September 15 2013).
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... -of-mexico

[GLF4drvr]

Reports from a solid source in Caye Caulker, Belize informs that trees are being broken by wind. On Ambergris Caye its getting steadily heavier, estimated 30-40 kts from the NE sustained, with heavy rain. Docks being uprooted by surge. All power is out. Water out since 2pm...