ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Let's see how low is the pressure at first pass of NOAA P-3.

[Aric Dunn]

Could be a partial eye wall forming in the NE Quad. Looks to be shaking off the dry air. Chances are improving that Earl attains hurricane intensity prior to landfall. Hopefully goes in north of Belize City as it is low and flat there.....MGC

yeah its definitely trying to deepen.. question is will in time. still about 12 hours or so.

[Hammy]

Could be a partial eye wall forming in the NE Quad. Looks to be shaking off the dry air. Chances are improving that Earl attains hurricane intensity prior to landfall. Hopefully goes in north of Belize City as it is low and flat there.....MGC

yeah its definitely trying to deepen.. question is will in time. still about 12 hours or so.

Convection is still having difficulty wrapping around, the northern bit has flattened out on radar and the wind field still appears pretty flat so far. It would probably need another day or so over water before strengthening can resume but it'll be onshore in about 12-18 hours.

[gatorcane]

Thankfully this thing is running out of time before it can potentially RI. Also folks along the Gulf Coast should be very thankful there is such a strong protecting ridge in place. Look at the good upper environment across the Gulf and how much more time it would have had over water:

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KWBC 032029
NOAA3 0605A EARL HDOB 16 20160803
201930 1743N 08633W 6974 03129 0001 +120 +049 059048 048 041 000 00
202000 1741N 08632W 6973 03130 0001 +118 +062 062048 049 044 001 00
202030 1740N 08630W 6973 03129 9994 +121 +070 062049 049 044 000 00
202100 1739N 08629W 6972 03124 9989 +119 +082 066051 052 044 001 00
202130 1737N 08627W 6973 03123 9981 +124 +086 064051 052 043 002 00
202200 1736N 08626W 6974 03115 9970 +128 +087 064051 054 045 003 00
202230 1734N 08624W 6973 03106 9973 +117 +096 067061 063 047 003 00
202300 1733N 08623W 6953 03127 9968 +116 +093 068062 064 048 002 00
202330 1732N 08621W 6969 03106 9962 +120 +087 067057 058 050 001 00
202400 1731N 08620W 6963 03109 9960 +119 +079 070055 056 052 000 00
202430 1730N 08618W 6961 03102 9947 +120 +087 071057 058 056 000 00
202500 1729N 08617W 6962 03100 9937 +129 +077 069058 060 058 004 00
202530 1727N 08616W 6963 03092 9927 +123 //// 081063 067 061 025 01
202600 1726N 08614W 6946 03094 9916 +117 //// 087057 057 063 026 01
202630 1725N 08613W 6965 03068 9896 +133 +128 086056 058 063 013 00
202700 1724N 08612W 6953 03083 9876 +147 +118 088049 050 063 004 00
202730 1723N 08610W 6947 03087 9888 +137 +114 087048 049 059 004 00
202800 1722N 08609W 6948 03077 9884 +132 +117 095049 050 056 004 03
202830 1720N 08608W 6970 03052 9884 +130 +121 100047 048 054 005 03
202900 1718N 08608W 6970 03042 9880 +129 +108 110037 040 037 002 03

[Aric Dunn]

its quite likely we will have a hurricane before the mission is over.. nw quad very close to hurricane if not there already

063 047 003 00
202300 1733N 08623W 6953 03127 9968 +116 +093 068062 064 048 002 00
202330 1732N 08621W 6969 03106 9962 +120 +087 067057 058 050 001 00
202400 1731N 08620W 6963 03109 9960 +119 +079 070055 056 052 000 00
202430 1730N 08618W 6961 03102 9947 +120 +087 071057 058 056 000 00
202500 1729N 08617W 6962 03100 9937 +129 +077 069058 060 058 004 00
202530 1727N 08616W 6963 03092 9927 +123 //// 081063 067 061 025 01
202600 1726N 08614W 6946 03094 9916 +117 //// 087057 057 063 026 01
202630 1725N 08613W 6965 03068 9896 +133 +128 086056 058 063 013 00
202700 1724N 08612W 6953 03083 9876 +147 +118 088049 050 063 004 00
202730 1723N 08610W 6947 03087 9888 +137 +114 087048 049 059 004 00
202800 1722N 08609W 6948 03077 9884 +132 +117 095049 050 056 004 03
202830 1720N 08608W 6970 03052 9884 +130 +121 100047 048 054 005 03
202900 1718N 08608W 6970 03042 9880 +129 +108 110037 040 037 002 03

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

988 but still not reached center.

[TheAustinMan]

Radar image from the latest reconnaissance pass. Time listed on the image.

[Aric Dunn]

Another view.

[ronjon]

Very cool image austinman..where the heck did you get that? Looks like partial eyewall north and east quads.

[cycloneye]

983.5 mbs.

000
URNT15 KWBC 032039
NOAA3 0605A EARL HDOB 17 20160803
202930 1716N 08609W 6962 03044 9872 +131 +099 125026 030 027 001 00
203000 1715N 08610W 6958 03044 9859 +136 +109 130012 015 022 001 00
203030 1713N 08612W 6956 03054 9853 +146 +109 073002 005 014 000 00
203100 1711N 08613W 6953 03064 9848 +156 +105 255007 015 013 000 03
203130 1709N 08612W 6958 03059 9835 +176 +061 244018 018 014 003 03
203200 1708N 08610W 6958 03071 9861 +165 +050 245021 022 019 001 00
203230 1706N 08609W 6958 03079 9875 +160 +057 242022 022 031 001 00
203300 1705N 08607W 6958 03088 9882 +157 +068 246022 023 035 000 00
203330 1703N 08605W 6958 03086 9888 +154 +074 246022 024 035 000 00
203400 1702N 08604W 6954 03102 9911 +143 +084 228023 026 033 000 00
203430 1700N 08602W 6957 03106 9928 +134 +091 221026 027 033 000 00
203500 1659N 08601W 6957 03107 9938 +127 +094 217028 028 033 000 00
203530 1657N 08559W 6957 03110 9956 +115 +096 220028 029 036 001 00
203600 1656N 08557W 6955 03117 9966 +110 +099 221031 032 037 000 00
203630 1654N 08556W 6958 03120 9971 +111 +099 226035 036 036 000 00
203700 1653N 08554W 6956 03121 9977 +108 +098 224034 035 037 000 00
203730 1651N 08553W 6957 03130 9982 +111 +090 217035 035 034 002 00
203800 1650N 08551W 6958 03130 9983 +112 +099 220036 037 033 002 00
203830 1648N 08550W 6954 03135 9990 +108 +093 219035 036 032 001 00
203900 1647N 08548W 6957 03136 9997 +107 +082 217034 035 035 005 00

[cycloneye]

983.5 the lowest.

[TheAustinMan]

Very cool image austinman..where the heck did you get that? Looks like partial eyewall north and east quads.

A convenient place to get NOAA reconnaissance radar images is from TropicalAtlantic, where they've been providing some files for use in Google Earth to visualize the radar overlays. The same files are also provided here, in addition to some ready-for-viewing images.

[Aric Dunn]

FL pressure 983mb slowly intensifying even through that lack of deep convection.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Who wants to continue the posting of the data?

[Blown Away]

Belize City in Earl's crosshairs... Population @55,000...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...LARGE EARL HEADING FOR BELIZE...
...ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 86.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 86.0 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl
will continue to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands during the
next few hours, and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts, however, Earl is expected to be a hurricane by the time it
reaches Belize. Weakening is expected after the center of Earl
moves inland.

Earl has become a large cyclone, and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the northeast
of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably occurring along the
north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands. These conditions
will reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras during the next several
hours, and in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and
Mexico tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which was recently in Earl
did not measure any hurricane-force winds, and the satellite
presentation has not changed much during the past few hours. The
cloud pattern continues to have a couple of cyclonically curved
convective bands with an intermittent banding type eye. On this
basis, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory.
The cyclone still has several hours over the warm waters of the Gulf
of Honduras, and there are no apparent inhibiting factors to impede
Earl to strengthen a little. The NHC forecast still calls for Earl
to become a hurricane before landfall in Belize. NOAA and US Air
Force Hurricane Hunter planes will be in the area later today.

There has been no significant change in track, and the best estimate
of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt.
Steering flow is very well established, and this pattern will
continue to move Earl over Belize and the Yucatan peninsula.
Earl is expected to be over water in the southern Bay of Campeche
for only a few hours, reducing the chances of re-intensification
there.

Earl has become a larger system, and its hazards, primarily
rainfall, will affect a large portion of Central America,
the Yucatan peninsula and eastern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 17.1N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 18.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1800Z 18.5N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Yellow Evan]

SFMR gave 63 knot winds with 67 FL winds. May be a hurricane at last.