ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[GLF4drvr]

Greetings from Ambergris Caye BZSTORM, I guess the only real question now, is who gets it up the nose tonight: Belize City or the Northern Cayes?

[GLF4drvr]

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop

[Aric Dunn]

Convection firing along the banding around the eye.

[Aric Dunn]

REcon is descending.

[mobilebay]

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/250-km-radar-loop

Thank you

[Hurricaneman]

On its current heading this could go north of Belize and landfall in Mexico instead

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Alyono]

URNT15 KWBC 031939
NOAA3 0605A EARL HDOB 11 20160803
192930 2052N 08606W 4653 06464 0364 -071 -122 074014 016 018 000 00
193000 2049N 08606W 4654 06463 0363 -071 -122 071015 016 017 000 00
193030 2047N 08606W 4654 06463 0363 -071 -123 073016 017 018 000 00
193100 2044N 08605W 4654 06462 0363 -067 -123 067016 016 018 000 00
193130 2041N 08605W 4653 06464 0363 -070 -107 072015 016 020 000 00
193200 2039N 08604W 4654 06462 0363 -066 -100 082015 016 019 000 00
193230 2036N 08603W 4654 06463 0362 -069 -114 078015 015 021 000 00
193300 2034N 08602W 4654 06461 0362 -072 -106 071014 014 021 000 00
193330 2031N 08601W 4654 06460 0361 -073 -097 068013 014 021 000 00
193400 2029N 08600W 4711 06360 0351 -067 -093 064015 016 021 000 00
193430 2026N 08558W 4940 05988 0328 -046 -082 071018 019 019 000 03
193500 2024N 08556W 5230 05542 0303 -025 -057 081023 023 /// /// 03
193530 2022N 08555W 5380 05315 0284 -018 -053 070029 031 016 000 00
193600 2020N 08554W 5509 05121 0082 -008 -055 077031 033 019 000 03
193630 2017N 08554W 5766 04758 0090 +010 -015 086030 030 020 000 00
193700 2015N 08553W 5903 04567 0095 +020 -013 090032 034 021 000 00
193730 2013N 08552W 6053 04360 0104 +027 -009 090034 035 021 000 00
193800 2011N 08552W 6245 04109 0104 +043 +000 092031 031 021 000 00
193830 2009N 08551W 6422 03876 0095 +064 +005 097033 034 022 000 00
193900 2008N 08550W 6592 03666 0097 +075 +013 096035 036 023 000 00

Can someone grab these? I have to write an advisory on Ivette soon

[tolakram]

loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

Dont tell me they are turning around too ? or are they avoiding the current convection ?

[gatorcane]

High tower alert (yellow blob): NE side of center:

[Kazmit]

On its current heading this could go north of Belize and landfall in Mexico instead

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

That's possible, and looks to be going in that direction now, instead of going more southernly as predicted. This could also help it's re-strengthening once it enters the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

Got it.

000
URNT15 KWBC 031959
NOAA3 0605A EARL HDOB 13 20160803
194930 1931N 08603W 6968 03199 0092 +102 +057 086038 038 029 000 00
195000 1930N 08605W 6968 03199 0089 +104 +059 087037 037 030 000 00
195030 1929N 08608W 6968 03200 0090 +103 +061 089037 038 030 000 00
195100 1928N 08610W 6969 03197 0090 +103 +057 091037 037 031 000 00
195130 1927N 08612W 6969 03197 0094 +100 +065 091037 039 030 000 00
195200 1925N 08614W 6969 03197 0094 +100 +066 091037 038 029 000 00
195230 1924N 08617W 6968 03198 0096 +096 +069 094039 040 031 000 00
195300 1923N 08619W 6968 03196 0096 +095 +069 092037 037 030 001 00
195330 1922N 08621W 6969 03195 0094 +097 +061 090036 036 032 001 00
195400 1921N 08623W 6968 03195 0095 +096 +063 091033 034 034 001 00
195430 1919N 08625W 6969 03193 0093 +097 +061 090032 033 036 002 00
195500 1918N 08627W 6970 03191 0086 +102 +053 087034 036 040 001 00
195530 1917N 08629W 6970 03190 0077 +111 +042 081037 037 036 000 00
195600 1915N 08631W 6970 03190 0077 +109 +043 079038 039 035 000 00
195630 1913N 08632W 6967 03193 0076 +109 +040 079039 039 033 000 00
195700 1911N 08634W 6968 03191 0075 +109 +042 077038 039 032 000 00
195730 1909N 08635W 6967 03193 0081 +106 +041 078040 040 031 000 00
195800 1907N 08636W 6967 03193 0081 +106 +044 079042 043 031 000 00
195830 1905N 08637W 6967 03193 0081 +105 +055 078042 042 033 000 00
195900 1902N 08638W 6968 03193 0079 +106 +051 078040 040 034 000 00

[Tireman4]

I think Sandy (HURRIKAN) is on this flight too.

[cycloneye]

[BZSTORM]

Greetings from Ambergris Caye BZSTORM, I guess the only real question now, is who gets it up the nose tonight: Belize City or the Northern Cayes?

if it landfalls at Gails point which if you google earth area where tracking currently says landfall think both of you going to feel it. Looks like Richard revisited right now but allot can happen in 24hrs as Iris taught us in the South , Keep safe and dry GLF4drvr

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KWBC 032009
NOAA3 0605A EARL HDOB 14 20160803
195930 1900N 08639W 6967 03192 0082 +103 +055 077043 044 033 000 00
200000 1857N 08640W 6968 03189 0078 +105 +056 077045 046 034 000 00
200030 1855N 08641W 6968 03188 0075 +106 +064 074045 046 034 000 00
200100 1853N 08642W 6968 03188 0070 +110 +049 068042 043 033 000 00
200130 1850N 08643W 6967 03188 0066 +113 +041 068043 044 032 000 00
200200 1848N 08644W 6968 03185 0067 +110 +048 065045 045 033 000 00
200230 1845N 08645W 6969 03183 0067 +109 +049 063046 046 032 000 00
200300 1843N 08646W 6967 03184 0065 +110 +051 063045 045 032 000 00
200330 1840N 08648W 6968 03181 0066 +108 +053 062045 045 033 000 00
200400 1838N 08649W 6968 03181 0063 +109 +055 064045 046 032 000 00
200430 1835N 08650W 6968 03180 0062 +109 +057 065047 048 032 000 00
200500 1833N 08651W 6969 03179 0060 +111 +055 064048 049 033 000 00
200530 1831N 08652W 6969 03178 0057 +113 +043 063047 047 034 000 00
200600 1828N 08653W 6970 03176 0057 +113 +039 062048 049 034 001 00
200630 1826N 08655W 6969 03175 0055 +113 +031 064048 049 035 000 00
200700 1823N 08656W 6969 03174 0055 +112 +042 066048 049 036 000 00
200730 1821N 08657W 6968 03175 0055 +110 +057 062044 046 035 000 00
200800 1818N 08658W 6969 03173 0053 +112 +045 064044 044 035 001 00
200830 1816N 08659W 6971 03169 0054 +109 +051 065045 045 035 000 00
200900 1813N 08700W 6974 03162 0051 +108 +053 063045 045 035 000 00

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KWBC 032019
NOAA3 0605A EARL HDOB 15 20160803
200930 1811N 08701W 6973 03163 0049 +109 +053 062046 046 033 000 00
201000 1809N 08701W 6973 03162 0050 +108 +047 061046 046 034 001 03
201030 1808N 08700W 6972 03162 0050 +107 +050 059044 044 036 000 00
201100 1806N 08658W 6972 03161 0050 +107 +050 060042 043 037 000 00
201130 1805N 08657W 6973 03159 0043 +111 +049 059042 043 036 000 00
201200 1804N 08655W 6972 03158 0043 +108 +067 062042 042 034 000 00
201230 1802N 08654W 6973 03157 0049 +103 +067 064042 042 035 000 00
201300 1801N 08652W 6973 03156 0047 +103 +068 062043 043 035 000 00
201330 1759N 08651W 6973 03154 0045 +104 +068 059039 040 035 000 00
201400 1758N 08650W 6973 03151 0042 +104 +064 056038 038 032 000 00
201430 1757N 08648W 6972 03152 0041 +105 +052 058039 040 036 000 00
201500 1755N 08647W 6972 03150 0039 +106 +050 060041 042 036 000 00
201530 1754N 08645W 6971 03146 0033 +105 +062 062041 041 033 001 00
201600 1752N 08644W 6972 03147 0035 +103 +067 061042 044 034 000 00
201630 1751N 08642W 6972 03144 0031 +104 +075 062043 043 035 000 00
201700 1750N 08641W 6972 03143 0020 +112 +065 061043 045 036 000 00
201730 1748N 08639W 6972 03135 0010 +115 +063 060044 045 038 001 00
201800 1747N 08638W 6973 03136 0006 +121 +059 058041 042 040 001 00
201830 1746N 08636W 6970 03140 0005 +121 +056 057044 046 039 001 00
201900 1744N 08635W 6972 03131 0005 +117 +051 058048 049 039 000 00

[cycloneye]

[MGC]

Could be a partial eye wall forming in the NE Quad. Looks to be shaking off the dry air. Chances are improving that Earl attains hurricane intensity prior to landfall. Hopefully goes in north of Belize City as it is low and flat there.....MGC