ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

One thing worth noting, there is no longer a single dynamical model making this a hurricane

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Diurnal influences, as well as some dry air off Honduras, are the causes for Earl's steady state so far today. Both of these should be non-issues later this evening. There is no reason to doubt Earl will be an intensifying hurricane as it landfalls in northern Belize.

[hurricanes1234]

One thing worth noting, there is no longer a single dynamical model making this a hurricane

That's very surprising. How come they don't?

[MississippiWx]

another issue is SHIPS has moderate and increasing shear over the system. The shear did not abate as forecast

Shear is no longer a major inhibiting factor. Outflow is expansive in all quadrants and expanding further. It looks like a well organized and stacked system now. It's resolving core issues as we speak. Spiral banding is wrapping into the core and helping to develop an eye wall. This will be a hurricane at landfall.

[Alyono]

One thing worth noting, there is no longer a single dynamical model making this a hurricane

That's very surprising. How come they don't?

I am honestly not sure. The environment must not be quite as favorable as I was expecting it to be

[TheStormExpert]

you can clearly see the intial process starting. where all level are rotating before it was just a low to mid level circ that had not stacked high enough. that has changed. convection is not that deep at the moment but it is still strong enough to warrant an early eye formation.

After struggling most of today Earl looks like it's on it's way to becoming a hurricane if it isn't already.

[Aric Dunn]

center coming into radar range... its going to go north of belize city it appears.

[ScottNAtlanta]

On the Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC) site, they have this listed as Hurricane Earl

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/tc.shtml

[TheStormExpert]

Off topic, but does anyone know why the forecasts cones are not appearing with the storms on the map above?

[AxaltaRacing24]

One thing worth noting, there is no longer a single dynamical model making this a hurricane

That's very surprising. How come they don't?

I am honestly not sure. The environment must not be quite as favorable as I was expecting it to be

I still think we are going to have a cat. 1 today.

[TheStormExpert]

This could be why Earl has been struggling so far today, the 850mb vorticity is hugging the northern coast of Honduras.

[mobilebay]

Last few visible images suggest an eye starting to form. At least to me it does.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like another hot tower is starting to fire see what happens...

[Alyono]

This WNW track today could mean it spends more time over the BOC

[mobilebay]

This WNW track today could mean it spends more time over the BOC

Yes the more northerly component is very noticeable in satellite images and by recon . very good point about the BOC especially if this trend continues.
.

[Hammy]

There's quite a visible amount of dry air now and the center looks somewhat poorly organized and very broad. I don't see this becoming a hurricane and it may have already peaked--any takers?

[BZSTORM]

this is the last recon of the day correct? I exhausted and Earl isn't here yet. But everyone I know is prepared for this although we are now out the cone and looks like we just have rain and thunder storms to worry about in South, North Belize and outlying cayes are boarded up and ready as best they can be. We have been advised to expect TS winds from 4pm BZ time today (4pm EST)

[Aric Dunn]

There's quite a visible amount of dry air now and the center looks somewhat poorly organized and very broad. I don't see this becoming a hurricane and it may have already peaked--any takers?

[im g]http://i.imgur.com/q9Jxpht.png[/ig]

yeah the center is going through the process.

we will see what happens.

[Aric Dunn]

actually latest frame thats corresponding to the new convection showing up on sat in the NE eyewall.. could be the start.

looks to be starting to fill in quite nicely.

[mobilebay]

There's quite a visible amount of dry air now and the center looks somewhat poorly organized and very broad. I don't see this becoming a hurricane and it may have already peaked--any takers?

[img]http://i.imgur.com/q9Jxpht.png[/ig]

yeah the center is going through the process.

we will see what happens.

[im g]https://s32.postimg.org/qatwzx311/latest_400kmpic.gif[/img]

Hey what is the link to the radar out of Belize?