ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Alyono]

winds in the northeast quad do not even support 60 kts

This is a 50-55 kt tropical storm

Is the land interaction causing problems with organizing?

dropsonde showed very dry air in the core

[Alyono]

the windfield is a bit more spread out as well based upon the aircraft data

[ScottNAtlanta]

The next center fix looks to confirm a trend to more WNW that W. Might go in north of Belize City. Now they are sampling the NE side. That should make someone happy

[floridasun78]

not hurr yet? so what highest wind report by them?

[tropicwatch]

The next center fix looks to confirm a trend to more WNW that W. Might go in north of Belize City. Now they are sampling the NE side. That should make someone happy

1pm advisory still stating west at 280. I know the NHC doesn't like to change things too quickly, maybe at the next advisory.

[tolakram]

Latest shear analysis shows improving conditions as the anti cyclone has moved closer, yet the IR loop shows Earl continues to struggle.



http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-85&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir5.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[wflamholtz]

The struggles that Earl is having right now probably has to do with the rate that it has grown in size. Does two things, allows dry air to mix in, but more importantly, broadens the area of best upward motion. So basically, it's having some bad growing pains

[Nimbus]

Red barbs in the northeastern quadrant, but currently dry air intrusion due to land interaction.
Current NHC track bends back west toward Belize city.
Should only be a minimal hurricane at landfall but it would be nice if we could forecast those red barbs to come in over the mangroves just to the north of Belize city.

[gatorcane]

I think an eye might be trying to come out, banding continues to improve quickly, sure hope folks in Belize have prepared. We are witnessing the magic of the Western Caribbean as far as fueling these storms when upper-level conditions are good:

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
100 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016

...EARL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 85.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Costa Maya, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala
border.
* Bay Islands, Honduras.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the
Honduras/Guatemala border.
* North of Puerto Costa Maya to Punta Allen, Mexico.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 85.6 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed
during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Earl
is expected to pass near the Honduras Bay Islands this afternoon,
and then make landfall in Belize tonight or early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. An Air Force reconnaissance plane currently investigating
Earl has not measured winds of hurricane force. However, additional
strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours or so, and Earl
is expected to be a hurricane by the time it reaches Belize.
Weakening is expected after the center of Earl moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are probably already occurring
along the north coast of Honduras, including the Bay Islands, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will
reach Belize and Mexico within the hurricane and tropical storm
warning area by tonight or early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin in the Bay Islands of Honduras later today and
in portions of the hurricane warning area in Belize and Mexico
tonight or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico through Thursday night. Very heavy
rain will reach the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz between
Thursday night and Saturday morning. Isolated maximum amounts of
16 inches are possible in Belize and Mexico. These rains could
result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula near and to the north of
where the center makes landfall. Storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels in areas
of onshore winds on the Bay Island of Honduras. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[tatertawt24]

Every time it looks like it's about to strengthen it changes its mind. Very surprised it isn't a hurricane yet.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a pretty normal development process. Happens many times where you get a series of large convective burst that help align the ( vertically stack) system. You cant get a eye to develop or a system to deepen unless all the layers are moving relatively together. looking at visible you can clearly see one large spiral band that wraps to the center. its only a matter of time until convection begins to build all along the band and building towards the center closing it off.

as we speak a small but likely the beginnings of an eye are starting show,,

[tolakram]

Maybe, but see the dry air coming in from overland? I think your comment earlier about it getting to close to land is what maybe causing a lot of these issues.

[cycloneye]

Chaser Josh is in Belize to do the things he always does.The big difference is this is no Patricia where he did a great job.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/760899532825595904

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow:

Maybe, but see the dry air coming in from overland? I think your comment earlier about it getting to close to land is what maybe causing a lot of these issues.

yeah its definitely having some issues. however its not that dry of air very minimal and shouldn't cause to many issues. Still think its more and organizational process. IT finally slowed down enough to vertically stack.

[wflamholtz]

:uarrow:

Maybe, but see the dry air coming in from overland? I think your comment earlier about it getting to close to land is what maybe causing a lot of these issues.

I think it's problems has to do more with the quick expansion of the storm

[Aric Dunn]

you can clearly see the intial process starting. where all level are rotating before it was just a low to mid level circ that had not stacked high enough. that has changed. convection is not that deep at the moment but it is still strong enough to warrant an early eye formation.

[Alyono]

another issue is SHIPS has moderate and increasing shear over the system. The shear did not abate as forecast

[Aric Dunn]

Next recon is on its way. by the time this mission is over given the trends we should have a deepening hurricane. unless of course it just runs out of water.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is not moving at 280 (W) like the 1p adv stated. I'd say 3 fixes is enough to call it a trend not a wobble. If an eye pops it will at least be easier to follow