ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Big burst of convection with very cold cloud tops right over center, impressive

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/760612582461812739

[tarheelprogrammer]

Did recon just turn around again before the storm?

[Aric Dunn]

THE AF plane just turned around any word if it was a malfunction again

[tropicwatch]

Last visible frames of Earl.

[Aric Dunn]

from barely an hour ago.. convection wrapped nearly all the way around. likely is now. impressive. may have a hurricane before 11 advisory. lol or close to it

[Aric Dunn]

damn looks like the AF plane is headed home something must have gone wrong again.

[cycloneye]

Oh my another one turns.

[drezee]

Insert disclaimer here: rely on the NHC for your forecast...

I have seen a lot of systems. This thing is go for launch. When you get this type of system you either get the circus fan or in this cause the "milky" cirrus. The up drafts are so intense the saturated air is so dense it turns milky. If I was in the path, I would pray for it to not slow down. I believe it could make high cat 1 or low cat 2 before landfall. The only caveat is if there is one more low level surge to push the center out from underneath. It will be hard with so much upward motion. I hope I am wrong.

[Hammy]

damn looks like the AF plane is headed home something must have gone wrong again.

Is the next investigation around 2am?

[Aric Dunn]

damn looks like the AF plane is headed home something must have gone wrong again.

Is the next investigation around 2am?

IDK

[whatacane]

Is EARL Slowing down? and if it gets stronger can it pull north?

[wflamholtz]

Is EARL Slowing down? and if it gets stronger can it pull north?

Earl is indeed slowing down, but I don't think it won't be able to move too far north because ridging is strong to the north. However, I think a rapid intensification is imminent

[Aric Dunn]

THey are on 6 hourly fixes. so next one departs in a few hours just arrives just before 11 I assume

6z then 8z I beleive

[whatacane]

Is EARL Slowing down? and if it gets stronger can it pull north?

Earl is indeed slowing down, but I don't think it won't be able to move too far north because ridging is strong to the north. However, I think a rapid intensification is imminent

How strong is the ridge? any one have links to it ?

[whatacane]

Is EARL Slowing down? and if it gets stronger can it pull north?

Earl is indeed slowing down, but I don't think it won't be able to move too far north because ridging is strong to the north. However, I think a rapid intensification is imminent

How strong is the ridge? any one have links to it ?

what is making him slow down? and thank you

[weathaguyry]

60mph now...

[tropicwatch]

THey are on 6 hourly fixes. so next one departs in a few hours just arrives just before 11 I assume

6z then 8z I beleive

Schedule indicates 2am eastern time takeoff.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 011514
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 01 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-067

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA....CARIBBEAN SEA
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
A. 02/1130, 1730Z A. 02/2330, 03/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
C. 02/0715Z C. 02/1930Z
D. 16.1N 79.0W D. 16.2N 81.8W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74
A. 03/0930Z A. 03/1130, 1730Z
B. NOAA3 0405A B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
C. 03/0600Z C. 03/0800Z
D. 16.4N 83.9W D. 16.6N 84.3W
E. 03/0900Z TO 03/1200Z E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
B. P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HOURS AT 0600Z AND 1800Z.
3. REMARKS: TEAL 71 IS FLYING A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL
INVEST INTO THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF 01/1630Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP

NNNN

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...EARL STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 82.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 82.3 West. Earl is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On this track,
the core of Earl is expected to pass just north of the Honduras Bay
Islands Wednesday afternoon, and then be very near the Belize
coast early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Earl could be
near hurricane strength as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan
peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 996 mb (29.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night or early Thursday. Hurricane
conditions could begin in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane
watch area Wednesday night or early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala,
and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result
in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Ntxw]

Making a case for some intensification. Cloud tops are cold.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 AUG 2016 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 16:25:43 N Lon : 81:54:56 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 999.1mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.3 4.0

Center Temp : -77.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C