ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/760120131544547328

[Hammy]

Watching extremely closely on the closeup satellite, there seems to be a very weak eastward movement of the convective activity on the last few frames.

[USTropics]

12z ECMWF run through 48 hours has 97L at an identical position as the 00z run, but with a stronger system:

EC has trended about 5mb weaker

It is weaker. For some reason the Tropicaltidbits previous run link took me back to yesterdays 12z run and not the 00z run for today:

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Why does it look to be moving wnw ? and off from where they have it?

thats exactly what ive been wondering. it keeps increasing in longitude ever so slightly. it initially was about 14 range then 15 now its estimated at 17.3 if not slightly more toward 18.

[BZSTORM]

If anyone gets chance to get the recon data and transfer it into JPG image on google earth would be awesome - I dont know how to do it and kinda busy here packing down office just in case - I live on coast so we're going to get something where I am located. Would like NHC to find center so tracking can be a little more specific right now all Belize in firing line. thanks in advance

[znel52]

Watching extremely closely on the closeup satellite, there seems to be a very weak eastward movement of the convective activity on the last few frames.

Yeah I have a very novice eye admittedly but I am thinking it's in there looking at the satellite. I will most likely be eating crow after recon goes in.

[whatacane]

Why does it look to be moving wnw ? and off from where they have it?

thats exactly what ive been wondering. it keeps increasing in longitude ever so slightly. it initially was about 14 range then 15 now its estimated at 17.3 if not slightly more toward 18.

Just say that recon is headed in . or that's what I say posted on a page not here

[USTropics]

96 hours, 97L does make it into the extreme southern BOC:

[Siker]

Full-res data shows the Euro trended stronger, not weaker. ~983mb at landfall on the 12z vs ~989 on the 00z.

[wxman57]

12Z EC has a 983mb storm striking northern Belize Wednesday night. That's likely a hurricane. I still don't see any threat to the northern Gulf. Looks like a southern to central BoC storm.

[TheStormExpert]

Full-res data shows the Euro trended stronger, not weaker. ~981mb at landfall on the 12z vs ~989 on the 00z.

At landfall in Belize or Mexico?

[stormlover2013]

Wxman, do you think this season is about to get active??

[Siker]

Full-res data shows the Euro trended stronger, not weaker. ~981mb at landfall on the 12z vs ~989 on the 00z.

At landfall in Belize or Mexico?

Belize, 997 in Mexico.

[chaser1]

97L is really beginning to spin, but i'm having a tough time seeing evidence of any SW or Westerly inflow still. Probably is very close and i'm guessing what looks to be a feeder band developing on it's south side, might just be what will help usher in it's missing SW'erly surface flow in a relative quick way. Beyond its obviously fast westward pace, the only thing I can think of that might be inhibiting faster vertical symmetry is the MLC's slightly more poleward tug, while the LLC attempting to form simply wants to continue its low level sterring westward motion. I think that the MLC's insistant effort to veer a bit more WNW, is likely the cause of what might be appearing to some, as a more WNW overall motion and the gaining of latitude. Furthermore, if it were not for having to struggle and maintain a tilted mid level to surface feature, I'd be in the camp suggesting that we'd easily see a minimal hurricane (or greater) within 24-36 hours. Still could happen too but like others here have said, will have to slow down a little to better allow that kind of faster deepening to occur.

[abajan]

Knowing of the topography in Hispaniola, I'm guessing that all those fast moving moisture laden winds impinging on the mountains are producing copious amounts of rainfall and flooding. Hope I'm wrong.

[Aric Dunn]

There is almost undoubtedly a closed circ at this point. It may not be very expansive but more than likely there.

[TexasF6]

There is an ULL forming off the Western tip of Cuba. Could ventilate the storm...







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[chaser1]

12Z EC has a 983mb storm striking northern Belize Wednesday night. That's likely a hurricane. I still don't see any threat to the northern Gulf. Looks like a southern to central BoC storm.

EURO seems to have taken a bit longer to sniff out what we're already beginning to see with our eyes (whether that net result will be a landfalling T.S. or hurricane). Nonetheless, its not as if the GFS has really handled this system any better. Either way, between the data ingested from the recon later today and global models beginning to get a better handle on the present, it'll be interesting to see if any new "wrinkles" are introduced regarding motion.

I"m really impressed with the overal outflow and I continue to think that there's real potential for this system to significantly strengthen prior to landfall in (or near) Belize.

[wxman57]

Wxman, do you think this season is about to get active??

Yep. Right on schedule.

[JaxGator]

Looks like a MLC to me. I looked at the low clouds and they still seem to be fairly quick from east to west. Not sure we really need recon today, especially as this will be soon passing a buoy

Sure the buoy will help but there are people in the path of this storm that would appreciate the data from recon.