ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[tatertawt24]

Definitely has a good curve to it now and some hot towers popping up in that last frame.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like there is strong inflow on the south east and south sides, and the low levels are realigning on the south west side towards what looks like the LLC

[Caneman12]

Definitely has a good curve to it now and some hot towers popping up in that last frame.

This thing looks tobe moving WNW do you think so cause every satallite picture keeps moving it north west

[Steve]

Full 30 frame loop now, speed it up. I'm sold, I say this gets named later today or as soon as recon confirms an LLC.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

Yeah, it looks to be winding up just west of 73W. The "good looking blob" which amounted to mid-level energy is dissipating to the east of the center. Looks like the snowball is rolling if this does wrap up today. I'm not believing this turns into a monster or anything, but I do think it's another ominous sign of at least somewhat of a Western-biased season with not much other than a sharp axis for 50+ degrees latitude then a spin up near Jamaica. This could matter later in the month and September if we see similar waves blossoming far west in the basin as this will reduce warning and preparation time. If it gets named and landfalls, this will be 3 out of 5 named systems land-falling in the western Atlantic.

[Nimbus]

Some low level details have been visible on the western edge of the system.
Currently the surface circulation is small, I doubt tropical storm winds extend very far out from the system at this time. Recon will pin it for us this afternoon so they can post watches and warnings for Jamaica if necessary since their exposed southern shore is on the strong side of the circulation.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Saved RGB loop:



I am guessing convection building on north and south side of possible forming LLC but again, it's pretty much a wild guess. Need RECON!

Maybe its just me, the spin seems to look like it was to slight curve north. Every time i see a loop it keeps inching towards 20. It just seems to keep moving more and more over the islands not brushing against them. Even if conditions arent favorable to allow it to suddenly steer north, he (assuming it is named earl) might be too stubborn to listen to the atmospheric laws.

[stormhunter7]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/760126335150882816

[Javlin]

Looks like a possible center at 16.6N and 72.5W just E of the new tower by RGB?

[TheAustinMan]

Recon appears to have taken off, as a RECCO was received from AF300 at 17:20 UTC from 28.1N 88.5W, which is over the northern Gulf.

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 17:21Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 17:20Z on Monday
Coordinates: 28.1N 88.5W
Location: 160 statute miles (258 km) to the SE (144°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 7,010 meters (22,999 feet)
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: -15°C (5°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: -22°C (-8°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Radar Capability: Yes
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,640 geopotential meters (25,066 geopotential feet)

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like a possible center at 16.6N and 72.5W just E of the new tower by RGB?

I have it at 17.3N and 74W somewhere around there.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, centered
about 275 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Thunderstorm activity
associated with the wave remains organized, but the system still
appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight. An
Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to
investigate this system late this afternoon. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to
tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach
the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and
elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[znel52]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... color=gray

Looking like we are clear for lift off. Starting to wrap up. Getting a bit of a comma shape to it.

[Alyono]

Looks like a MLC to me. I looked at the low clouds and they still seem to be fairly quick from east to west. Not sure we really need recon today, especially as this will be soon passing a buoy

[Tireman4]

Looks like a MLC to me. I looked at the low clouds and they still seem to be fairly quick from east to west. Not sure we really need recon today, especially as this will be soon passing a buoy

You know I know nothing..but could it help to seen where the center, if there is one, might be located? Or am I off?

[znel52]

Looks like a MLC to me. I looked at the low clouds and they still seem to be fairly quick from east to west. Not sure we really need recon today, especially as this will be soon passing a buoy

Yeah glad they decided to go into it this evening.

*EDIT* nevermind misread your post. Hopefully the buoy will give us some good data.

[USTropics]

12z ECMWF run through 48 hours has 97L at an identical position as the 00z run, but with a stronger system:

[Alyono]

One other thing I am seeing from the 12Z global models. This may NOT intensify much at all as it approaches Central America. EC, which can depict TC intensity, is showing only very slight intensification through 48 hours. I wonder if there is going to be some shear or something persisting

[Alyono]

12z ECMWF run through 48 hours has 97L at an identical position as the 00z run, but with a stronger system:

EC has trended about 5mb weaker

[mobilebay]

Looks like a MLC to me. I looked at the low clouds and they still seem to be fairly quick from east to west. Not sure we really need recon today, especially as this will be soon passing a buoy

I agree. If there is an llc it is tiny, because I've looked at low level inflow clouds and just don't see it

[whatacane]

Why does it look to be moving wnw ? and off from where they have it?