ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[JaxGator]

Still looks impressive even if It is sheared a bit. I hope Jamaica is prepared for this.

[Siker]

TXNT21 KNES 011241
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 01/1145Z

C. 16.1N

D. 70.2W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=2.5. MET AND PT=3.0 FT IS BASED
ON MET DUE TO AMBIGUOUS BANDING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[Dean4Storms]

These fast moving systems we've seen in the past can have a very small closed circulation at the surface with most of their weather and highest winds to the east of the center. I suspect that is what we are seeing here.

[znel52]

01/1145 UTC 16.1N 70.2W T3.0/3.0 97L

Geeze T3.0 for the blob. Impressive.

[cycloneye]

Watch bouy 42058 data in the next few hours to see if winds change direction and pressure fallsAlso how strong the winds are.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[Emmett_Brown]

That "pointy" looking convection on the SW side of the blob usually indicates that the center is not closed at the surface. I have seen this in the past with fast moving waves. But, when they slow down, sometimes they take off.

[stormwise]

Thats a TC

[Alyono]

the SSD center is 1 degree too far east. You'd get a 2.0 or a 2.5 if they used 71W

[tolakram]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

Speed up this loop, you can see the south motion of the lower clouds in the gap and it appears there may in fact be something close to an LLC down there.

It appears to be running into some stiff southerly shear.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Thats a TC

Good enough to name if they named Colin. Give Jamaica some warning. A real LLC should most likely develop later anyways.

[vbhoutex]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

Speed up this loop, you can see the south motion of the lower clouds in the gap and it appears there may in fact be something close to an LLC down there.

It appears to be running into some stiff southerly shear.

I definitely agree on the Southerly shear which appears to be at the upper levels. Can see it blowing the tops off the CDO that appears to be trying to form. We may end up with a tilted TD by the end of the day. Probably stormy along the Southern shores of DR and Haiti. Next up of course is Jamaica and the Cayman's. Since 97L has slowed down it has more chance to work on stacking itself, but of course we still need a defined LLC too, which may be hiding under that Southern edge. I think it is going to be a long day of watching and analyzing for many. Wherever you are in the ATL basin, but especially the Caribbean and GOM need to get prepared now, not later!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/760108944324984832

[tropicwatch]

Close to live visible loop. Looks like convection moving southward on the western periphery and northward on the eastern side.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=16&lon=-70&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=15

[TheStormExpert]

Shear could very well be a problem in the short term if that anticyclone does not stay exactly on top of 97L. It's not the destructive shear we saw back in June with the other TC's and last season, but it is enough to notice on satellite presentations.

On a side note, look at how the shear has increased a good deal throughout the Atlantic when compared to two weeks ago. I know it changes and fluctuates but this could help keep things somewhat quiet if it doesn't change much.

[wxman57]

It's clear from visible imagery that the low-level center is west of the convection. Still too much low-level shear due to the fast movement. That'll change soon.

[tailgater]

Cloud tops are warming and expanding SWward, we may be able see more of the surface cloud layer in a couple hours. I personnally think it hasn't formed a LLC yet but will after it clears the isthmus of DR.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-avn-long.html

[TheStormExpert]

Update on Levi Cowan's Tropical Tidbits site concerning Invest 97L.

Update Monday 9:00AM AST:

Invest 97L has become better organized overnight, with deep convection over the wave axis. There is no evidence yet of a closed surface circulation. However, 97L is still capable of bringing tropical storm-like conditions to Jamaica tonight, with winds of 50mph or stronger at times. Residents of Jamaica should treat this as a tropical storm.

As 97L gets farther west, it will become easier to close off a circulation, and as soon as that happens, it could begin strengthening. Mexico, Belize, and Honduras should keep a close eye on this system, as they could be threatened by a tropical storm or hurricane late Wednesday or early Thursday.

[Alyono]

I would not be surprised if most of the convection dissipates.

If that occurs, near convection can then form along the wave axis, which is west of the MLC. That is what will allow for development. I believe Fay many years ago had issues forming because convection persisted around the MLC, which was well away from the surface wave axis

[TheStormExpert]

12z Model Guidance:





06z GEFS Ensembles:

[Stormcenter]

That's just crazy, 97L may not even make it into the GOM per those models. We shall see.