ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

WOW, look at the setup above 97L.

[ronjon]

Really wrapping up tonite on SAT. When is RECON scheduled?

[tarheelprogrammer]

WOW, look at the setup above 97L.

WOW so why would it not strengthen?

[Alyono]

why won't it immediately intensify?

As I said before, low level winds not favorable enough

Far too often posters here, as well as many forecasters, only look at SST, upper winds, and water vapor content. One must also look at the low level winds, as well as the mid level winds. Both the low and mid level winds are not that great. There is an easterly jet affecting this, which is almost always associated with the SAL. In addition, we may be entering into an area of low level divergence, which is extremely unfavorable. Mathematically, this can not intensify unless the upper divergence is beyond great when you have low level divergence

[Nikki]

Really wrapping up tonite on SAT. When is RECON scheduled?

Recon is scheduled for Tuesday, if needed.

[tropicwatch]

Really wrapping up tonite on SAT. When is RECON scheduled?

As of now not until the 3rd.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 311448
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[JaxGator]

Is it possible that the center is relocated under the ball of convection south of Puerto Rico? Or in the process anyway. If so, then the models have the center fix more south of where the convection is but I'm not a Met.

[Javlin]

why won't it immediately intensify?

As I said before, low level winds not favorable enough

Far too often posters here, as well as many forecasters, only look at SST, upper winds, and water vapor content. One must also look at the low level winds, as well as the mid level winds. Both the low and mid level winds are not that great. There is an easterly jet affecting this, which is almost always associated with the SAL. In addition, we may be entering into an area of low level divergence, which is extremely unfavorable. Mathematically, this can not intensify unless the upper divergence is beyond great when you have low level divergence

I understand what you are saying Alyono but what I am seeing does not see to corroborate with what you just said.Not being disrespectful just observing what I see.Kevin and I could be a block of concrete.

If I had to pick fix for system 16'N 68'W

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[tropicwatch]

The next ASCAT pass might help us understand what is currently taking place at the lower levels.

[Blinhart]

If you look at the spaghetti models you will see that at the end it shows that there will be a weakness in the ridge over Texas (i.e. a bend to the North), so if I am reading that correctly if this system decides to start slowing down and not make it to the YP until Wednesday or so we will have a totally different outlook than we have right now. So a lot can change in the next 72 to 96 hours. Everyone from New Orleans to Mexico needs to be keeping an eye on this system, because it looks like the conditions are gonna be changing in this up coming week which can have a lot of difference in steering and strength.

[JaxGator]

Really wrapping up tonite on SAT. When is RECON scheduled?

As of now not until the 3rd.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 311448
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF



NNNN

If anything changes before then, the NHC would probably send recon sooner. It would be nice to have it now though. At least we got radar and surface observations to help us out for now.

[Yellow Evan]

If you look at the spaghetti models you will see that at the end it shows that there will be a weakness in the ridge over Texas (i.e. a bend to the North), so if I am reading that correctly if this system decides to start slowing down and not make it to the YP until Wednesday or so we will have a totally different outlook than we have right now. So a lot can change in the next 72 to 96 hours. Everyone from New Orleans to Mexico needs to be keeping an eye on this system, because it looks like the conditions are gonna be changing in this up coming week which can have a lot of difference in steering and strength.

Given that the models are trending south, that seems unlikely. Honestly at this point it may just hit Honduras as a tropical storm, and re-develop in the EPAC.

[weathaguyry]

True, I guess we will see how this looks in the morning, if convection continues to become stronger and this system gets a little better organized, maybe the NHC will look into it further

[tolakram]

Great pretender.

Live IR
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-69&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir5.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[weatherwindow]

Good evening...
To quote Panama, Wow... when is the last time we've seen this kind of UL support and potential ventilation over an incipient system in the Caribbean..... it certainly remains to be seen whether it can overcome the inflow problems associated with the east-central Caribbean.....Greetings from Cayo Hueso, Rich

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like any potential center is 50mi north of where it is tagged

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hammy]

I do have to point out an amusing fact, that if this develops it'll be the 6th E storm to have struggled in the eastern Caribbean since 2006.

[JaxGator]

It's close on having a closed center imo.
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/wind ... 0_noaa.png

[Caneman12]

It looks like this invest is Making a jog northwest or WNW could mean cchange in track by 100 miles or so this thing isn't listening to the models it looks vigorious