ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[AJC3]

Anybody know where to find the latest T numbers?

From SSD... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[Alyono]

IIRC NHC will post any watches or warnings they feel are needed even if it isn't yet a TD or TC. This is new this year. I may have it wrong and if I do someone with the correct information feel free to correct me.

Next year at earliest. Lagging behind the private sector in this regard

[Javlin]

Anybody know where to find the latest T numbers?

From SSD... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

Thks AJ

[Javlin]

Now I started browsing for those T numbers a bit ago I found this something I do not look at to often http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html I look at it and watch the flow granted the short term flow (12-24hrs) is all one can gather from it but it would seem to say WNW.

[srainhoutx]

IIRC NHC will post any watches or warnings they feel are needed even if it isn't yet a TD or TC. This is new this year. I may have it wrong and if I do someone with the correct information feel free to correct me.

Next year at earliest. Lagging behind the private sector in this regard

Actually Dan Brown discussed that this season the NHC will be implementing this experimental Watch/Warning pre official declaration of a TC possibility at the National Tropical Weather Conference if need be.

[whatacane]

Now I started browsing for those T numbers a bit ago I found this something I do not look at to often http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html I look at it and watch the flow granted the short term flow (12-24hrs) is all one can gather from it but it would seem to say WNW.

I looked at that earlier myself! does not make sense, storm on sat seems to have shifted way nw from where they have it and looks to be building jmo.

[tropicwatch]

Sure looks like it is trying to get its act together.

Close to live color enhanced sat loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-66&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15

[Alyono]

IIRC NHC will post any watches or warnings they feel are needed even if it isn't yet a TD or TC. This is new this year. I may have it wrong and if I do someone with the correct information feel free to correct me.

Next year at earliest. Lagging behind the private sector in this regard

Actually Dan Brown discussed that this season the NHC will be implementing this experimental Watch/Warning pre official declaration of a TC possibility at the National Tropical Weather Conference if need be.

From what I heard is those will be in house and not released to the public. I think fully operational is scheduled for next year

[whatacane]

Sure looks like it is trying to get its act together.

Close to live color enhanced sat loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-66&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15

Panama . question for you on the image you just posted is it going north west .sure does look like it?

[floridasun78]

i got feeling nhc may go ahead issue td avd or ts av d soon if get enough data show this system look very well sat pic

[tropicwatch]

Sure looks like it is trying to get its act together.

Close to live color enhanced sat loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-66&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15

Panama . question for you on the image you just posted is it going north west .sure does look like it?

Can't really tell from this loop except that the convection has really increased in the northwest portion of the system.

[floridasun78]

Sure looks like it is trying to get its act together.

Close to live color enhanced sat loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-66&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15

Panama . question for you on the image you just posted is it going north west .sure does look like it?

till moving west maybe WNW not nw

[Kazmit]

8pm update. At 50%/70% now, and forecasting a more southernly path.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea continue to show
signs of organization, but there is still no evidence of a closed
surface circulation. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in
a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to cause locally
heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight. These conditions are also
spreading across Hispaniola, and should reach Jamaica and Cuba by
late Monday as the wave moves westward near 25 mph over the central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[whatacane]

Sure looks like it is trying to get its act together.

Close to live color enhanced sat loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-66&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15

Panama . question for you on the image you just posted is it going north west .sure does look like it?

Can't really tell from this loop except that the convection has really increased in the northwest portion of the system.

Thank You. I think this storm may have the 9 ball shot ! has any one looked at the tracks for the 100 year hurricane that hit Galveston in 1900?

[Javlin]

Now I started browsing for those T numbers a bit ago I found this something I do not look at to often http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html I look at it and watch the flow granted the short term flow (12-24hrs) is all one can gather from it but it would seem to say WNW.

I looked at that earlier myself! does not make sense, storm on sat seems to have shifted way nw from where they have it and looks to be building jmo.

It's percolating right now;I have a hard time seeing a W course ATTM I can see the five day cone going N of Jamaica some.

[Javlin]

Sure looks like it is trying to get its act together.

Close to live color enhanced sat loop:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=17&lon=-66&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=15

Panama . question for you on the image you just posted is it going north west .sure does look like it?

till moving west maybe WNW not nw

Might be a relocation going on but look at the flow though whether a low or a cane these systems always seem to go for the path of least resistance.

[whatacane]

Now I started browsing for those T numbers a bit ago I found this something I do not look at to often http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html I look at it and watch the flow granted the short term flow (12-24hrs) is all one can gather from it but it would seem to say WNW.

I looked at that earlier myself! does not make sense, storm on sat seems to have shifted way nw from where they have it and looks to be building jmo.

It's percolating right now;I have a hard time seeing a W course ATTM I can see the five day cone going N of Jamaica some.

Well I guess tine will tell!just looking at all the info it seems to be going more west north west. I made a typo on the earlier post. just my opinion

[NDG]

Based on last 12 hrs fixes of 97L it has averaged at 22.7 mph, prior 12 hrs it was moving at an average of 27.5 mph. So it has slowed down some based on my calculations.

[BobHarlem]

Best looking wave of the year though. Models handled it fairly well overall.

I agree, was a good practice run. They have been showing this outcome since it came off Africa, basically due west with no development. Well most besides that ridiculous hwrf that turns everything into a hurricane. Refreshing to see the Cmc and gfs not showing cat 5's hitting big coastal cities this go around.

18Z HWRF has more or less backed off on the hurricane idea, pretty much keeps it weak with a small flare up before it hits Belize.

[Kazmit]

Latest model guidances: