#39 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 31, 2016 11:24 am
Special Advisory:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016
...EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF JULY FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
SUMMARY OF 930 AM PDT...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 120.5W
ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM PDT (1630 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 120.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092016
930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016
The first visible satellite images this morning indicate that a
well-defined center has formed in association with the area of low
pressure located well southwest of Mexico. This, along with the
increase in convective organization, supports classifying this
system as a tropical cyclone. A 1401Z SSMIS overpass indicated that
the low-level center was located beneath the convective canopy, and
the initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The cyclone is currently situated over waters of 27-28C and the
shear is expected to remain relatively low, so gradual strengthening
is forecast through the first 48 hours. Later in the period, the
cyclone will move over cooler waters and into a drier and more
stable thermodynamic environment, which should result in gradual
weakening to remnant low status. The NHC intensity prediction is a
little above the latest intensity consensus, but not as high as the
HWRF and COAMPS-TC models. During the weakening phase, the NHC
forecast is below the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus.
The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/08.
However, the track forecast reasoning appears relatively
straightforward, as a mid-level ridge is expected to build westward
to the north of the cyclone through the forecast period. This
should result in a west-northwestward heading, with a bit of a
westward bend in the track at days 4 and 5 as the shallow cyclone
comes under the influence of the low-level trade winds. The NHC
track forecast is close to the middle of the guidance envelope near
the multi-model consensus.
This marks the formation of the eighth tropical cyclone in the basin
in July, tying the record set in July of 1985.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1630Z 14.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.9N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 15.7N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1200Z 22.5N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brennan
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here