ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea are
disorganized, while satellite data and surface observations indicate
no signs of a closed surface circulation. Although some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase
after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of
days. This disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico today. These conditions should spread westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach
Hispaniola on Monday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[NDG]

Still has a nice vorticity in the mid levels but nothing but a sharp trough at the surface with some of the Islands now reporting a SE winds.

[TheStormExpert]

06z GEFS Ensembles less bullish.

[NDG]

As mentioned before good thing is moving fast, it still has an anticyclone on top of it
UL conditions are completely different to the last couple of years over the Caribbean when a persistent TUTT created a very rough UL environment over this same area.

[NDG]

Very bullish on 96L

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Very bullish on 96L

No that I believe is the wave about to exit Africa, but I'd still watch 96L closely.

[Siker]

:uarrow: Very bullish on 96L

Those are actually from the wave exiting Africa at the moment, not 96L.

[NDG]

:uarrow: Very bullish on 96L

Those are actually from the wave exiting Africa at the moment, not 96L.

:uarrow: Very bullish on 96L

No that I believe is the wave about to exit Africa, but I'd still watch 96L closely.

You are correct, now that I look closer.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Model Guidance less bullish.

[northjaxpro]

97L really could potentially cause a lot of big problems for the Western GOM next week. Our friends in Southern TX in particular need to carefully watch 97L for sure.

[Alyono]

there is a question as to whether or not this will even move into the Gulf and we are sounding the Texas alarms?

[ninel conde]

Deep south mexico had been favored for several years now.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Tropical cyclone increasingly likely over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week

Residents in the west Caribbean Sea and western Gulf of Mexico…including Texas…should closely monitor the progress of this system

Discussion:
97L passed over the Leeward Islands overnight with strong gusty winds and squalls, but as expected surface observations showed no low level circulation. While the feature continues to look well organized on satellite images, the fast forward motion is preventing any surface circulation from forming and a westerly wind on the south side from closing off a surface low. The wave continues to move rapidly westward at 25-30mph on the south side of a strong sub-tropical ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean. While a few models show near term development, this fast forward motion should preclude any sustained development for the next 24-48 hours.

Track:
Global and hurricane track models are in good agreement that 97L will continue rapidly westward for the next 24-48 hours with strong high pressure to the north producing a strong easterly steering flow across the Caribbean Sea. After 48 hours the system will be reaching the western Caribbean Sea and begins to slow down and this is where model guidance begins to diverge with a few models taking a more WNW and then NW track and other continuing along on a nearly due W track. Much of the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico by late next week and next weekend will hinge on the intensity of the system and the movement and break down of a high pressure ridge over TX. A stronger more defined system will turn more poleward finding the developing weakness over TX in the height field and this is suggested by the latest operational GFS and many of the GFS ensemble runs. While a weaker system will likely continue along toward the west trapped under the low to mid level ridge over the central Gulf of Mexico as suggested by the EURO and UKMET. I am not finding either the HWRF nor GFDL hurricane models of much use right now with the HWRF (extreme intensity) and the GFDL (showing little development).

Intensity:
Not expecting much intensity changes over the next 48 hours as 97L continues rapidly westward. Once over the western Caribbean is where global models begin to show differing degrees of development as the system slows and conditions become increasingly favorable. Generally the system will likely track over the Yucatan and then emerge in the Gulf of Mexico late this week or early next weekend where conditions look very favorable for development. Wind shear is forecast to be light, sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the system will have plentiful moisture surrounding it. If an inner core can become established either over the western Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico…faster intensification would be possible. Over 40% of the GFS ensemble members bring 97L to hurricane intensity over the western Gulf of Mexico while less than 10% of the EURO ensemble members show a hurricane. This is likely a direct correlation to the track forecast with the GFS much further north and over the Gulf a long period of time versus the EURO further south and over the Bay of Campeche a shorter period of time.

Impacts:
At this time the uncertainty remains too great to discuss any impacts to the TX coast. Will go ahead and bump up rain chances for Friday-Sunday due to the ridge weakening aloft and possible bands of rain approaching from the SE on the northern flank of any southern Gulf tropical system. Will likely need to start ramping up long period swells in the outer waters by Friday and then on the coast by Saturday depending on how large and intense the system becomes which will likely start to affect coastal tides by early next weekend.

Actions:
Residents along the TX coast should review your hurricane preparation plans. Those without a plan…now would be a good time to develop one. Monitor weather information sources daily and keep up to date on the forecast of this system.

[Siker]

there is a question as to whether or not this will even move into the Gulf and we are sounding the Texas alarms?

There's absolutely nothing wrong with saying that South Texas should watch this; still some ensemble support for that scenario even if recent runs have trended further south.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

Location: 15.0°N 62.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM

[northjaxpro]

I am simply offering my educated opinion on the synoptic pattern. This is an opinion forum. I respect all of you on here. Please respect me as well and do not belittle or make a mockery of my thoughts on this forum. There is no needfor any of that toward anyone, let alone me, on this forum. I have been a long time member on here. I am not sounding any alarm bells, as someone on here is suggesting at this time. I am simply stating an observation and for people across the Western GOM to monitor 97L carefully.

[wxman57]

Development appears to be almost certain. Main question is whether this has a chance to impact the NW Gulf or just stay down south in Mexico. Models are pointing to a Mexico final landfall at present. Wouldn't rule out Texas, though. We began issuing advisories yesterday, predicting development in the western Caribbean and a 50kt TS striking Tampico next weekend (a bit conservative on intensity to start with).

[LSU2001]

Hello all,
This far out from any possible U.S. landfall, I feel that anyone along the gulf coast should be watching these invests. No alarms yet but it is silly not to watch the developments. Anyway, I'm back and ready for a good, safe season.
Tim

[northjaxpro]

Hello all,
This far out from any possible U.S. landfall, I feel that anyone along the gulf coast should be watching these invests. No alarms yet but it is silly not to watch the developments. Anyway, I'm back and ready for a good, safe season.
Tim

Good advice!!

[Alyono]

of course watch it. However, given the questions regarding this moving into the Gulf, I just think it's too soon to panic.

of course, given that we are entering the heart of the season, one should be reviewing any cane prep plans that they may have. Know what to do in case this does come to Texas