ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

floridasun78 · #261 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:30 pm

it got good banding on Barbados radar let see models show later today

floridasun78 · #262 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:31 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Some of it is starting to show up on Barbados Radar.

Barbados Radars: http://www.barbadosweather.org/

link Long term Barbados radar recording.

it show good banding on radar from Barbados Radar

#263 Postby **abajan** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:34 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Some of it is starting to show up on Barbados Radar.

Barbados Radars: http://www.barbadosweather.org/

link Long term Barbados radar recording.

Not sure how current the last images of those recordings are. EDIT: Actually, the long term recordings seem up to date, but the other radar links via http://www.barbadosweather.org/ seem about a day old.

#264 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:40 pm

A tropical wave is rapidly moving westward toward the Lesser
Antilles. Although satellite images show a large and well-
organized area of thunderstorms associated with the wave, there are
no signs of a surface circulation, and pressures are not falling
significantly at this time.  This system has the potential for some
slow development during the next day or two, but the best chance for
tropical cyclone formation is likely to be by the middle of next
week, when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea.  This system
is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions
of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight and
Sunday, and then the activity should spread westward across
Hispaniola. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

1900hurricane · #265 Postby **1900hurricane** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 6:50 pm

RL3AO wrote:There has not been a hurricane in August in the Caribbean since 2012. For any system to find a favorable environment there is a big change from the last few years.

You can remove the phrase "in August" and this statement would still be valid. Sandy '12 was the last one (in October that year).

#266 Postby **USTropics** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:15 pm

Invest 97L entering some warmer SSTs:

Socalhurcnegirl227 · #267 Postby **Socalhurcnegirl227** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:16 pm

Most recent image of system approaching barbados

#268 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:17 pm

Hammy wrote:Has it been under or overdoing genesis/intensity?

I haven't seen intensity, but the track skill has been around 10% worse than GFS, HWRF, and the TCVN consensus.

#269 Postby **USTropics** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:33 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Hammy wrote:Has it been under or overdoing genesis/intensity?

I haven't seen intensity, but the track skill has been around 10% worse than GFS, HWRF, and the TCVN consensus.

I made these graphics last week. Accumulated data of Eastern North Pacific activity this year (raw data from tropicalatlantic.com):

#270 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:50 pm

UKMET crosses this over with development in the EPAC:

#271 Postby **USTropics** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:51 pm

This is why shear forecasts can be so difficult. Current SHIPS run below compared to a run from two days ago:

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    34    38    44    48    56    63    70    77    83    92    99   105
V (KT) LAND       30    34    38    44    48    56    63    70    77    57    38    38    32
V (KT) LGEM       30    33    37    41    44    50    57    67    79    60    39    38    34
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         2     6     9     8     7     9     3     8     2     6     7    11     1
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -3    -2     1     0    -1    -3     3     0     0    -2    -5    -4     1
SHEAR DIR        259   295   325   323   295   299   244   294   223   356    34    37   113
SST (C)         28.3  28.5  28.8  28.8  28.6  28.6  29.0  29.1  29.3  29.5  29.8  30.0  30.1
POT. INT. (KT)   147   149   153   153   150   149   155   156   158   160   164   169   172
ADJ. POT. INT.   162   163   166   164   158   155   159   158   156   155   156   164   166
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.2   0.2   0.2
TH_E DEV (C)      10    11    11    11    12    11    12    11    11     7     9     6     8
700-500 MB RH     59    59    62    62    62    64    66    68    76    78    82    83    85
MODEL VTX (KT)     7     7     9    11    10     8     7     7    10    11    12    13    13
850 MB ENV VOR    68    65    71    76    74    76    93    74    88    71    84    68    56
200 MB DIV        24    36    21    32    48    36    54    13    58    40    76    71    78
700-850 TADV       2     0     0    -2   -10    -1     0   -13    -3    -6     0    -3     6
LAND (KM)        606   498   439   248   190   124   100   253   111   -65   -47    37   -95
LAT (DEG N)     14.9  15.2  15.5  15.9  16.3  16.7  16.9  16.6  16.0  15.3  15.3  16.1  17.8
LONG(DEG W)     57.3  60.1  62.7  65.1  67.5  72.1  76.2  80.0  82.9  85.1  86.6  87.9  89.1
STM SPEED (KT)    28    26    24    23    23    21    19    17    13     9     6     9    11
HEAT CONTENT      35    47    42    66    63    90   106    56    33    71    84    34    79

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 28      CX,CY: -27/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  536  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           22.4

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   2.   6.  12.  18.  23.  28.  32.  36.  40.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  11.  11.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   4.   3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -3.  -1.   0.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   1.   1.  -1.  -3.  -3.   0.   0.   1.   2.   1.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   7.   9.  10.  10.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           4.   8.  14.  18.  26.  33.  40.  47.  53.  62.  69.  75.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   30. LAT, LON:   14.9    57.3

      ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST     07/31/16  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.66           8.7
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     6.6      28.8  to    2.9       0.86           5.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    50.6       0.0  to  155.1       0.33           1.4
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     7.4      37.5  to    2.9       0.87           5.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.6       2.8  to   -3.1       0.37           2.1
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    30.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.21           0.4
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    32.2     -23.1  to  181.5       0.27           0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   132.4      28.4  to  139.1       0.94           3.2
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0     100.0  to    0.0       1.00           1.4
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   133.2     960.3  to  -67.1       0.81           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   8% is   1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  43% is   3.7 times sample mean (11.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  28% is   3.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  13% is   3.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  14% is   2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  25% is   4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     8.4%   42.7%   27.8%   12.9%    9.9%   14.4%   25.1%
    Logistic:    10.5%   44.2%   25.5%   13.7%    0.0%   28.0%   58.4%
    Bayesian:     1.4%   15.4%    4.0%    0.2%    0.2%    0.3%    2.2%
   Consensus:     6.8%   34.1%   19.1%    8.9%    3.4%   14.2%   28.6%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST     07/31/16  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST     07/31/2016  00 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  30    34    38    44    48    56    63    70    77    57    38    38    32
 18HR AGO           30    29    33    39    43    51    58    65    72    52    33    33    27
 12HR AGO           30    27    26    32    36    44    51    58    65    45    26    26    20
  6HR AGO           30    24    21    20    24    32    39    46    53    33   DIS   DIS   DIS
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

From 2 days ago:

Code: Select all

                    * ATLANTIC     SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      AL972016  07/29/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    26    28    31    33    38    42    47    51    55    61    68    75
V (KT) LAND       25    26    28    31    33    38    42    39    41    45    51    58    40
V (KT) LGEM       25    26    27    28    29    32    33    30    32    33    35    38    31
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         7     5     9    13    15    23    26    20    21    18     8     5    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0     1     1     0     0    -2     1    -1     0     0     3     2    -1
SHEAR DIR         26     1   312   312   308   288   294   276   263   264   259   222    91
SST (C)         26.9  26.9  27.1  27.4  27.7  28.3  28.9  28.7  29.6  29.9  29.6  29.7  30.2
POT. INT. (KT)   127   127   130   134   138   147   156   152   166   171   165   166   173
ADJ. POT. INT.   131   132   137   144   149   160   170   163   175   175   167   168   173
200 MB T (C)   -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C)   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     9     9    10    11    12    13    13    13    12     9     9
700-500 MB RH     58    58    56    54    52    51    55    60    63    63    65    74    75
MODEL VTX (KT)     0  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    84    81    73    67    52    53    31    46    51    42    56    64    67
200 MB DIV        18    25    34    29    33     9    21    11    24     9    25    38    46
700-850 TADV      -1    -1     0     1     0    16     0    -6    -5    -9    -7    -3     0
LAND (KM)       1440  1318  1224  1163  1073   768   149   -58    88   161   223    49  -128
LAT (DEG N)     14.0  14.3  14.8  15.4  16.1  17.4  18.5  18.8  19.0  18.5  17.7  16.2  14.6
LONG(DEG W)     42.9  45.1  47.4  50.0  52.7  58.5  64.3  70.2  75.4  79.8  83.5  86.4  88.8
STM SPEED (KT)    21    22    24    26    27    29    28    27    23    19    17    15    13
HEAT CONTENT       4     5    10    23    47    31    17    69    79   116    55    16    75

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19      CX,CY: -18/  2
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  518  (MEAN=618)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   9.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:   8.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            4.1

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  11.  12.  13.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   1.   2.   6.  12.  19.  24.  30.  35.  40.  44.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   0.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -4.  -3.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -4.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   1.   2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -7.  -6.  -5.  -4.  -4.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           1.   3.   6.   8.  13.  17.  22.  26.  30.  36.  43.  50.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   14.0    42.9

      ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST     07/29/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     0.0     -49.5  to   33.0       0.60           3.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     9.7      28.8  to    2.9       0.74           2.0
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    17.8       0.0  to  155.1       0.11           0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :     9.5      37.5  to    2.9       0.81           2.1
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     1.0       2.8  to   -3.1       0.30           0.8
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  121.0       0.07           0.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    27.8     -23.1  to  181.5       0.25           0.3
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   113.5      28.4  to  139.1       0.77           1.2
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:    53.1     100.0  to    0.0       0.47           0.3
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   151.2     960.3  to  -67.1       0.79           0.0
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   5% is   1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   1.5 times sample mean (11.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  11% is   1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   9% is   2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     5.5%   16.9%   10.6%    8.7%    0.0%    0.0%   11.7%
    Logistic:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%    0.0%  999.0%    3.1%
    Bayesian:   999.0%    2.1%    0.4%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:   999.0%  999.0%  999.0%  999.0%    0.0%  999.0%    5.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST     07/29/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST     07/29/2016  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
      TIME (HR)      0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS)  25    26    28    31    33    38    42    39    41    45    51    58    40
 18HR AGO           25    24    26    29    31    36    40    37    39    43    49    56    38
 12HR AGO           25    22    21    24    26    31    35    32    34    38    44    51    33
  6HR AGO           25    19    16    15    17    22    26    23    25    29    35    42    24
      NOW                              CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
  IN  6HR                              INTENSITY IN  6HR < 83 KT
  IN 12HR                              INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

#272 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:54 pm

I think it'll become at least a TS in the SW Gulf next Thu/Fri before moving inland - probably near Tampico, MX. Certainly would not rule out a threat to Texas so far out.

#273 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 7:56 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:So far in the East Pacific the Euro has been terrible. Only the GFDL has been worse of the consensus models (GFS, UKMET, HWRF, GFDL, Euro, and maybe one more). Just something to keep in mind as we move into August.

which is exactly what I said would happen due to it using a horrible resolution for TCs. The resolution is too fine for paramaterized convection, not too coarse for explicit convection

I still remember thinking that when taking NWP last spring and seeing the info about the Euro update. That 6 to 10 km zone is kinda no mans zone for convection.

I would expand that dead zone to 12km

#274 Postby **USTropics** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 8:14 pm

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/759533823608709120

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/759510108111986688

#275 Postby **USTropics** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:14 pm

18z Ensemble Prob % of TC Genesis the highest yet for 97L:

floridasun78 · #276 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:14 pm

USTropics wrote:This is why shear forecasts can be so difficult. Current SHIPS run below compared to a run from two days ago:

Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 83 92 99 105 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 44 50 57 67 79 60 39 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 8 7 9 3 8 2 6 7 11 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -1 -3 3 0 0 -2 -5 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 259 295 325 323 295 299 244 294 223 356 34 37 113 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 153 150 149 155 156 158 160 164 169 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 166 164 158 155 159 158 156 155 156 164 166 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 7 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 62 62 64 66 68 76 78 82 83 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 10 8 7 7 10 11 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 71 76 74 76 93 74 88 71 84 68 56 200 MB DIV 24 36 21 32 48 36 54 13 58 40 76 71 78 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -10 -1 0 -13 -3 -6 0 -3 6 LAND (KM) 606 498 439 248 190 124 100 253 111 -65 -47 37 -95 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.6 16.0 15.3 15.3 16.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 60.1 62.7 65.1 67.5 72.1 76.2 80.0 82.9 85.1 86.6 87.9 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 28 26 24 23 23 21 19 17 13 9 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 47 42 66 63 90 106 56 33 71 84 34 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 28 CX,CY: -27/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 26. 33. 40. 47. 53. 62. 69. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 57.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.87 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 3.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 42.7% 27.8% 12.9% 9.9% 14.4% 25.1% Logistic: 10.5% 44.2% 25.5% 13.7% 0.0% 28.0% 58.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 15.4% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.2% Consensus: 6.8% 34.1% 19.1% 8.9% 3.4% 14.2% 28.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 43 51 58 65 72 52 33 33 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 36 44 51 58 65 45 26 26 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 46 53 33 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

From 2 days ago:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 47 51 55 61 68 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 30 32 33 35 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 13 15 23 26 20 21 18 8 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 26 1 312 312 308 288 294 276 263 264 259 222 91 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.9 28.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.7 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 130 134 138 147 156 152 166 171 165 166 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 137 144 149 160 170 163 175 175 167 168 173 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 54 52 51 55 60 63 63 65 74 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 73 67 52 53 31 46 51 42 56 64 67 200 MB DIV 18 25 34 29 33 9 21 11 24 9 25 38 46 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 16 0 -6 -5 -9 -7 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1318 1224 1163 1073 768 149 -58 88 161 223 49 -128 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.4 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.5 17.7 16.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 45.1 47.4 50.0 52.7 58.5 64.3 70.2 75.4 79.8 83.5 86.4 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 24 26 27 29 28 27 23 19 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 10 23 47 31 17 69 79 116 55 16 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. 36. 43. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 42.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.9% 10.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 999.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 40 37 39 43 49 56 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 35 32 34 38 44 51 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 23 25 29 35 42 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

so shear going less and forecast from other day chart i not good reading this?

#277 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:19 pm

The SHIPs output was too fast and too far north over the past couple days and brought 97L into a more unfavorable environment.

Example - 48 hr forecast from 7/29 0z was to have low at 18.5N, 58.5W. The 7/31 0z position was 14.9N, 57.3W. Much further south and therefore in a better environment.

#278 Postby **USTropics** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:23 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
USTropics wrote:This is why shear forecasts can be so difficult. Current SHIPS run below compared to a run from two days ago:

Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 83 92 99 105 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 44 50 57 67 79 60 39 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 8 7 9 3 8 2 6 7 11 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -1 -3 3 0 0 -2 -5 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 259 295 325 323 295 299 244 294 223 356 34 37 113 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 153 150 149 155 156 158 160 164 169 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 166 164 158 155 159 158 156 155 156 164 166 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 7 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 62 62 64 66 68 76 78 82 83 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 10 8 7 7 10 11 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 71 76 74 76 93 74 88 71 84 68 56 200 MB DIV 24 36 21 32 48 36 54 13 58 40 76 71 78 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -10 -1 0 -13 -3 -6 0 -3 6 LAND (KM) 606 498 439 248 190 124 100 253 111 -65 -47 37 -95 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.6 16.0 15.3 15.3 16.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 60.1 62.7 65.1 67.5 72.1 76.2 80.0 82.9 85.1 86.6 87.9 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 28 26 24 23 23 21 19 17 13 9 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 47 42 66 63 90 106 56 33 71 84 34 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 28 CX,CY: -27/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 26. 33. 40. 47. 53. 62. 69. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 57.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.87 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 3.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 42.7% 27.8% 12.9% 9.9% 14.4% 25.1% Logistic: 10.5% 44.2% 25.5% 13.7% 0.0% 28.0% 58.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 15.4% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.2% Consensus: 6.8% 34.1% 19.1% 8.9% 3.4% 14.2% 28.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 43 51 58 65 72 52 33 33 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 36 44 51 58 65 45 26 26 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 46 53 33 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

From 2 days ago:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 47 51 55 61 68 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 30 32 33 35 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 13 15 23 26 20 21 18 8 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 26 1 312 312 308 288 294 276 263 264 259 222 91 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.9 28.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.7 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 130 134 138 147 156 152 166 171 165 166 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 137 144 149 160 170 163 175 175 167 168 173 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 54 52 51 55 60 63 63 65 74 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 73 67 52 53 31 46 51 42 56 64 67 200 MB DIV 18 25 34 29 33 9 21 11 24 9 25 38 46 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 16 0 -6 -5 -9 -7 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1318 1224 1163 1073 768 149 -58 88 161 223 49 -128 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.4 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.5 17.7 16.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 45.1 47.4 50.0 52.7 58.5 64.3 70.2 75.4 79.8 83.5 86.4 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 24 26 27 29 28 27 23 19 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 10 23 47 31 17 69 79 116 55 16 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. 36. 43. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 42.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.9% 10.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 999.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 40 37 39 43 49 56 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 35 32 34 38 44 51 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 23 25 29 35 42 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

so shear going less and forecast from other day chart i not good reading this?

Correct. If the shear forecast from two days ago verified, 97L would currently be under 20+ knots of shear.

Current observed shear:

#279 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:30 pm

Those whipping trade winds may be the main thing that keeps this from having a really really favorable environment.

Kazmit · #280 Postby **Kazmit** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:34 pm

Looks likely to develop in the Western Caribbean and then move to the west more into the GOM, possibly across the Yucatan Peninsula.

ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

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