2016 EPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

MIght be losing steam but EPAC has outperformed every other basin in a single month. It might only need to spawn a few TC's to be a normal year, although I don't think this will be the last outbreak in this part of the world...

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days about 1000
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro:

[WeatherGuesser]

Much ado about nothing?

Some pineapples got watered a bit? I haven't seen anything in the news about anything significant.

[hurricanes1234]

What are the models showing in terms of intensity for 0%/50% area of interest?

[TheStormExpert]

What are the models showing in terms of intensity for 0%/50% area of interest?

The GFS ceases development of this area, while I believe the CMC still develops it.

[hurricanes1234]

What are the models showing in terms of intensity for 0%/50% area of interest?

The GFS ceases development of this area, while I believe the CMC still develops it.

How strong does the CMC think it will become?

That's a little strange the GFS dropped it...

[Kingarabian]

Much ado about nothing?

Some pineapples got watered a bit? I haven't seen anything in the news about anything significant.

A storm hitting Hawaii? You do realize it was historic on many levels. From 1959 to 2014, only 1 storm hit Hawaii coming from the east.

From 2014-2016 we've had 2 tropical storms hitting from the east.

[Kingarabian]

What are the models showing in terms of intensity for 0%/50% area of interest?

The GFS ceases development of this area, while I believe the CMC still develops it.

Euro develops it in 120 hours.

[Kingarabian]

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstors are associated with a broad
area of low pressure centered about 700 miles south of Manzanillo,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
gradual development of this system later this week, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the low moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

INVEST 91E is up

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/758450977095557120

[hurricanes1234]

The EPAC isn't ready to throw in the towel just yet...

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days
several hundred miles south of Mexico. Some development of this
system is possible by early next week while it moves
west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

GFS just dropped it.

[Extratropical94]

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form in the next couple of
days several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
later this week while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[hurricanes1234]

The EPAC just doesn't want to stop.

From the 11 AM TWO today of the same area but it's now lemoned:

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity located about 500 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system later this week
while it moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

Invest 92E is up

[Kingarabian]

We might have another invest next week if remnants of Earl make it to the EPAC and form in a TC as the UKMET is showing.

[Yellow Evan]

We might have another invest next week if Remanent of Earl make it to the EPAC and form in a TC as the UKMET is showing.

ECMWF has a quick fire TC near Baja.

[wxmann_91]

We might have another invest next week if remnants of Earl make it to the EPAC and form in a TC as the UKMET is showing.

Just got a mention in the TWO.

1. An area of low pressure could form near the southern coast of
Mexico late this weekend in association with the remnants of
Atlantic Tropical Storm Earl after it moves across southern Mexico.
Some subsequent development of this system is possible while
it moves west-northwestward near the southwestern coast of Mexico
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent