2016 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

EPAC is about to get its third major this month with Georgette. What is the July record for majors?

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC is about to get its third major this month with Georgette. What is the July record for majors?

4- July 1978.

[Ntxw]

Georgette is the second Cat 4 of the season. More ACE

[gatorcane]

New one for the EPAC, ECMWF likes it:

1. An area of low pressure could form in a few days roughly 1000 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some development of this system is possible by late this
week while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[gatorcane]

wow look at the UKIE on the new NHC system they are watching

[TheStormExpert]

18z GFS does not like the 0/20% area.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure will likely form in a few days about 1000
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week into the
weekend while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Kingarabian]

Still no support from the GFS on that system the Euro is showing.

[Alyono]

This one could be a concern given how far south it is likely to develop and the ridging north of the system

[hurricanes1234]

Frank is the 5th hurricane to form in the eastern Pacific during
July. This is the most on record for July, eclipsing the previous
record of 4 previously set in 5 other years. Reliable records in
the eastern Pacific for hurricanes begin in 1971.

And the surprises just keep coming and coming in this historic month....

[Ntxw]

7 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 majors. That's some quality. In July alone no less..outbreak is an understatement. All out blitz, the models were right seeing the barrage of systems.

In large part it has to be due to the Atlantic waves surviving the Caribbean not forming over there (No great Carib shear this year) and making it to the EPAC to become storms. I wonder if this is why post El Nino/+PDO years are so huge in ACE?

[talkon]

The 00z Euro (which is pretty old) predicts 2 more storms in 10 days, while the GEM predicts 4 and the GFS predicts 0.
I wonder which model will be the most accurate.

[Ntxw]

The 00z Euro (which is pretty old) predicts 2 more storms in 10 days, while the GEM predicts 4 and the GFS predicts 0.
I wonder which model will be the most accurate.

I'd side with the Euro and CMC. Georgette and Frank were able to go during a somewhat unfavorable period with a lot of sinking air. Larger scale rising motion will likely make a return to the EPAC shortly. Just shows you the low freq state is favorable for the east pacific regardless of MJO/CCKW phases.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days about 1000
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development of this system later this week, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[gatorcane]

UKMET continues to love the NHC 0/50 area for development:

[hurricanes1234]

If this one forms and becomes a tropical storm, it will be the 8th named storm this month and break the record of 7 named storms in July.

In my opinion this may not be too far-fetched because we still have a number of days left before the month ends and we know how fast these systems have been forming in the past 3 weeks.


As someone rightfully put it (I can't remember who), the EPAC is acting like a conveyor belt.

[Kingarabian]

Euro still showing development but weaker.

[cycloneye]

The outbreak may be losing steam?

[Kingarabian]

The outbreak may be losing steam?

18z GFS now on board.

[gatorcane]

Yep looks like the outbreak is losing steam looking at the 18Z GFS. Quite a run for the EPAC though.