2016 WPAC Season

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/755129038914539520

[1900hurricane]

Woo subtropical/monsoon gyre on the 12Z ECMWF!

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Most if not all of the models see some type of development from Lupit at a rather high latitude between 20 to 40N southeast of Japan. Some has only one entity (GFS), the others have multiple entities (EURO- large monsoon system with multiple centers) but they don't develop it that much remains a weak TS/TD. Unlike days ago when GFS had it down to the 960's...

[euro6208]

384 hours out...

Large system possibly Mirinae north of the Marianas to start off August.

[1900hurricane]

A long string of vorticity is already in place from the old departing Mei-yu setup (and with a new one beginning to take shape in China). The development of anything guidance is throwing out stems from this incipient vorticity.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/755853044793827328

[euro6208]

Looks like the models have backed off on development southeast of Japan...

Long range GFS still sensing some tropical trouble for the Philippines and Southern China first week of August...

[1900hurricane]

94W is up.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=118074

*EDIT: became the short-lived Tropical Storm Lupit.

[1900hurricane]

Based on guidance, the WPac subtropics look to remain muddled for the time being. The ECMWF is giving another shot at developing a gyre in the medium range and the other deterministics are just plain sloppy. Ensemble spreads are all over the place, which is watering down the usefulness of the ensemble means.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/756687014708318208

[dexterlabio]

Is it just me or is the little swirl in South China sea worthy of at least a mention?

[1900hurricane]

I've been keeping an eye on it for sure. The last few ECMWF runs have started to develop it almost immediately after days of ignoring the feature. There's actually some decent model agreement in closing off a low/maybe developing a depression from it before moving inland near Hainan in a couple of days. I'm more or less just waiting for it to be tagged as an invest. Time is not on its side though.

It also looks like we could see some additional chances for development just east of the Philippines beginning in about five days. Guidance looks like it's finally figuring some sense out of the WPac pattern coming up.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/757374398642786304

[euro6208]

What a sudden change.

EURO has a homebrewed system developing west of Luzon, intensifies it to Typhoon Mirinae and aims it for southern Guangdong province.



CMC has been hinting on this for quite some time but is weaker on latest run.



GFS not so much...

[euro6208]

We can already see the system that the models are developing down the road. It's generating a large area of convection and has a strong solid vorticity. Shear though could been much better.

[euro6208]

We can already see the system that the models are developing down the road. It's generating a large area of convection and has a strong solid vorticity. Shear though could been much better.

Actually CMC develops Mirinae/Nida as it moves northwest across the Philippines and links up with another system in the SCS. Crosses the Gulf of Tonkin and makes landfall over Vietnam at 984mb.



EURO has a TS before landfall, a typhoon of the western coast, and makes landfall near Hong Kong. Peaks it at 976mb. Quite a contrast when it was aiming for Taiwan at previous run.




Last 2 GFS runs started showing this. Much stronger TS for Luzon. Peaks it at 978mb. Makes landfall west of Hong Kong. 12Z is east.

[euro6208]

Quite interestingly CMC, EURO and GFS also developing something TD/TS in the subtropics near Wake Island. GFS on drugs was forecasting a 955mb system but has dropped it. CMC and EURO still saying something will develop but will remain very weak.

[1900hurricane]

Sure enough, Invest 95W is now up!

*EDIT: ended up becoming Severe Tropical Storm Mirinae.

[1900hurricane]

The next system guidance is keying in on stems from a developing disturbance currently on the monsoon trough down near the equator and a little west of 150*E. It'll gain some latitude as it moves towards the Philippines and slowly consolidates these next few days.