2016 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS taking us all the way to I.

[RL3AO]

Pretty neat how clearly the EPac outbreak lines up with a favorable CCKW and MJO passage.

[cycloneye]

The outbreak continues.

1. A low pressure area is expected to form well south of Mexico in a
couple of days in association with a tropical wave that is currently
located over the far eastern Pacific. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of the low, and a
tropical depression could form by late this week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
later this week while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755139090824237056

[cycloneye]

A low pressure area is expected to form well south of Mexico in a
couple of days in association with a tropical wave that is currently
located near Central America over the far eastern Pacific.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this
weekend while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
later this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[bg1]

A low pressure area is expected to form...
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Only in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the far eastern Pacific Ocean and
portions of Central America is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A weak low pressure area located about 700 miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower activity.
Some slow development of this system is possible later this week
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[stormwise]

[quote="RL3AO"]Pretty neat how clearly the EPac outbreak lines up with a favorable CCKW and MJO passage.

Yeah what i found interesting was when the cckw/mjo passed over the wpac it was quite, the 1only typhoon came after the models were showing it had passed.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms located over the eastern Pacific well
southwest of Guatemala are associated with a westward-moving
tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

A weak low pressure area located about 750 miles southwest of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower activity.
Conditions are expected to be conducive for some slow
development of this system later this week while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/755422018229587968

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure has formed over the eastern Pacific
about 650 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about
10 mph to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A weak low pressure area located about 750 miles southwest of
Acapulco is producing disorganized shower activity. Conditions are
forecast to be marginally conducive for some development of
this system later this week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[gatorcane]

The 10/40 area makes a run at Hawaii on 18Z long-range GFS

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 550 miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph to the south of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A weak low pressure area is located almost 1000 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system later this week or this weekend while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[euro6208]

Pretty neat how clearly the EPac outbreak lines up with a favorable CCKW and MJO passage.

Yeah what i found interesting was when the cckw/mjo passed over the wpac it was quite, the 1only typhoon came after the models were showing it had passed.

What's more interesting is that only typhoon turned out to be the strongest during this *outbreak* in the EPAC. A cat 5 then a 4 at landfall. It's like Nepartak gathered the whole energy.

[hurricanes1234]

Hi everyone!

I was just wondering, what are the models predicting in terms of intensity and forecast path for these two areas of interest (the 30/80 and the 20/40)?

Thanks!

[Yellow Evan]

12 GFS backs off on the 20/40

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large but disorganized
area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph
to the south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

A weak low pressure area is located almost 1000 miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some
development of this system later this week or this weekend while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[gatorcane]

GFS continues to be bullish on an active EPAC in the long-range:

[cycloneye]

INVEST 99E is up at active storms/invests forum

[cycloneye]

INVEST 90E is up