CPAC: DARBY - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
this was not expected
has drifted NNW
I think the Canadian model has this right. A sheared, low cloud swirl moving toward Hawaii
has drifted NNW
I think the Canadian model has this right. A sheared, low cloud swirl moving toward Hawaii
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Looking better during the past few hours, this is probably as good as it is going to look, much cooler waters ahead of it.


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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Alyono wrote:this was not expected
has drifted NNW
I think the Canadian model has this right. A sheared, low cloud swirl moving toward Hawaii
Looks like a wobble with that ever evolving eye.
The CMC had Celia going into Hawaii as an open wave. Yet Celia is still a healthy vortex moving north of the Islands as predicted by the GFS and the Euro.
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
TXPZ24 KNES 151239
TCSENP
A. 05E (DARBY)
B. 15/1200Z
C. 16.4N
D. 120.1W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER
TCSENP
A. 05E (DARBY)
B. 15/1200Z
C. 16.4N
D. 120.1W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...KIBLER
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2016 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 16:21:56 N Lon : 120:01:48 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 971.4mb/ 90.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.3 5.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : -6.0C Cloud Region Temp : -56.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2016 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 16:21:56 N Lon : 120:01:48 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 971.4mb/ 90.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.3 5.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km
Center Temp : -6.0C Cloud Region Temp : -56.3C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Up to 85kts.
EP, 05, 2016071512, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1201W, 85, 975, HU
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016
Darby's eye became a little better defined earlier this morning,
with an elongated tail of convection developing within the eastern
portion of the circulation. Dvorak final-T numbers are now 4.5/77
kt from TAFB, 5.0/90 kt from SAB, and 5.1/92 kt from the UW-CIMSS
ADT, so the initial intensity is raised to 85 kt on this advisory.
The eye appears to have opened up a bit on the latest satellite
pictures, so it's possible that Darby may have reached its peak
intensity.
The hurricane is now moving over sea surface temperatures a little
less than 27C, and the ocean beneath the hurricane is expected to be
colder than 26C within the next 24-36 hours. Since vertical shear
continues to gradually decrease, Darby is forecast to maintain its
intensity or only gradually weaken during the next day or two.
After 48 hours, more marked weakening is anticipated due to SSTs
getting as cold as 24-25C. No changes to the NHC intensity
forecast, which is essentially a blend of the SHIPS model and
Florida State Superensemble early and the IVCN intensity consensus
late, were required from the previous advisory.
Darby appears to have turned west-northwestward and slowed down,
and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt. An amplifying mid- to
upper-level trough along the west coast of the United States is
expected to weaken the subtropical ridge during the next day or
two. This should allow the hurricane to continue moving
west-northwestward for the next 36 hours, but thereafter a westward
turn is anticipated when a weaker Darby comes under the influence
of lower-level steering winds. There continues to be high
confidence in Darby's future path due to a tightly packed model
suite, and the updated NHC track forecast is shifted slightly
northward only during the first 36 hours to account for the recent
west-northwestward turn.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 16.5N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.9N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.1N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.6N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 19.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016
Darby's eye became a little better defined earlier this morning,
with an elongated tail of convection developing within the eastern
portion of the circulation. Dvorak final-T numbers are now 4.5/77
kt from TAFB, 5.0/90 kt from SAB, and 5.1/92 kt from the UW-CIMSS
ADT, so the initial intensity is raised to 85 kt on this advisory.
The eye appears to have opened up a bit on the latest satellite
pictures, so it's possible that Darby may have reached its peak
intensity.
The hurricane is now moving over sea surface temperatures a little
less than 27C, and the ocean beneath the hurricane is expected to be
colder than 26C within the next 24-36 hours. Since vertical shear
continues to gradually decrease, Darby is forecast to maintain its
intensity or only gradually weaken during the next day or two.
After 48 hours, more marked weakening is anticipated due to SSTs
getting as cold as 24-25C. No changes to the NHC intensity
forecast, which is essentially a blend of the SHIPS model and
Florida State Superensemble early and the IVCN intensity consensus
late, were required from the previous advisory.
Darby appears to have turned west-northwestward and slowed down,
and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt. An amplifying mid- to
upper-level trough along the west coast of the United States is
expected to weaken the subtropical ridge during the next day or
two. This should allow the hurricane to continue moving
west-northwestward for the next 36 hours, but thereafter a westward
turn is anticipated when a weaker Darby comes under the influence
of lower-level steering winds. There continues to be high
confidence in Darby's future path due to a tightly packed model
suite, and the updated NHC track forecast is shifted slightly
northward only during the first 36 hours to account for the recent
west-northwestward turn.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 16.5N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.9N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.1N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.6N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 19.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
NNNN
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
12Z MU has a fairly strong cane basically stalling just east of the Big Island
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Ec agreeing with cmc. Looks like hawaiian shear once again. Mu probably has wrong environment. No surprise there
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Code: Select all
15/1800 UTC 16.6N 121.0W T4.5/5.0 DARBY -- East Pacific
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Code: Select all
EP, 05, 2016071518, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1210W, 85, 975, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 100, 70, 100, 1011, 240, 20, 105, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DARBY, D, 12, NEQ, 210, 150, 120, 210, genesis-num, 011,
EP, 05, 2016071518, , BEST, 0, 166N, 1210W, 85, 975, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 50, 1011, 240, 20, 105, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DARBY, D, 12, NEQ, 210, 150, 120, 210, genesis-num, 011,
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EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm
There are still some dry air issues affecting convection in the northern part of the circulation, but Darby is on the cusp of annularization.


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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Is now marginally annular
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DARBY EP052016 07/15/16 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 85 85 83 76 71 66 62 57 52 46 43
V (KT) LAND 85 85 85 85 83 76 71 66 62 57 52 46 43
V (KT) LGEM 85 85 84 82 79 71 65 61 58 55 51 47 43
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 7 5 3 3 1 2 5 7 5 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 3 -4
SHEAR DIR 43 68 63 32 63 74 98 42 226 237 242 230 250
SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.5 25.1 25.4 25.4
POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 126 123 117 114 112 108 109 115 118 118
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 63 59 55 53 50 52 48 47 45
MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 28 28 26 25 25 25 26 25 23 23
850 MB ENV VOR 56 58 63 69 72 84 80 103 97 114 99 97 90
200 MB DIV 31 23 12 26 22 -12 -9 4 -10 1 -1 -1 -2
700-850 TADV -4 -1 -3 -2 0 0 4 1 0 4 5 6 4
LAND (KM) 1283 1336 1393 1451 1507 1604 1744 1904 2079 2047 1785 1523 1262
LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.7 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.8
LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.0 122.9 123.8 124.7 126.4 128.4 130.5 132.8 135.3 137.8 140.3 142.8
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 11
HEAT CONTENT 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.2
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. -31. -32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -2. -9. -14. -19. -23. -28. -33. -39. -42.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 16.6 121.0
** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.01 0.1
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.72 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 3.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.23 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 416.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.31 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 -0.5
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 17.9% 13.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.2% 6.3% 5.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/15/16 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016
Darby's eye has been clearing out during the past few hours with
some warming noted in infrared satellite imagery. There are some
breaks in the surrounding convection due to infiltration of dry
air, which has caused the subjective data-T numbers to oscillate
around 4.5 and 5.0 since this morning. However, CI numbers are 5.0
from both TAFB and SAB, and ADT estimates are up to 5.3/97 kt. Based
on these data, Darby's maximum winds are increased to 90 kt.
Vertical shear over Darby has become quite low and should remain low
during the entire forecast period. However, based on the latest
global SST analysis, Darby will only be over waters warmer than
26.5C for another 12-18 hours and is likely to reach SSTs as cold as
24C in a couple of days. Therefore, additional significant
strengthening is not anticipated, and in fact, a gradual weakening
trend is shown in the official forecast for the entire five days.
This forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains
relatively close to the SHIPS guidance and the Florida State
Superensemble.
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 290/8 kt, to the
south of a strong mid-level ridge extending west of northern
Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next 24 hours
due to an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough along the west
coast of the United States. This should keep Darby moving
west-northwestward for the next few days, followed by a turn to the
west at the end of the forecast period once the weaker cyclone
becomes steered by lower-level steering flow. It may sound like a
broken record, but the track guidance remains tightly clustered for
the entire forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is
essentially down the middle of the guidance envelope and not too
much different from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 16.8N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.6N 124.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.9N 126.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 18.2N 128.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 18.7N 132.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016
Darby's eye has been clearing out during the past few hours with
some warming noted in infrared satellite imagery. There are some
breaks in the surrounding convection due to infiltration of dry
air, which has caused the subjective data-T numbers to oscillate
around 4.5 and 5.0 since this morning. However, CI numbers are 5.0
from both TAFB and SAB, and ADT estimates are up to 5.3/97 kt. Based
on these data, Darby's maximum winds are increased to 90 kt.
Vertical shear over Darby has become quite low and should remain low
during the entire forecast period. However, based on the latest
global SST analysis, Darby will only be over waters warmer than
26.5C for another 12-18 hours and is likely to reach SSTs as cold as
24C in a couple of days. Therefore, additional significant
strengthening is not anticipated, and in fact, a gradual weakening
trend is shown in the official forecast for the entire five days.
This forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains
relatively close to the SHIPS guidance and the Florida State
Superensemble.
The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 290/8 kt, to the
south of a strong mid-level ridge extending west of northern
Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next 24 hours
due to an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough along the west
coast of the United States. This should keep Darby moving
west-northwestward for the next few days, followed by a turn to the
west at the end of the forecast period once the weaker cyclone
becomes steered by lower-level steering flow. It may sound like a
broken record, but the track guidance remains tightly clustered for
the entire forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is
essentially down the middle of the guidance envelope and not too
much different from the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 16.8N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.6N 124.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.9N 126.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 18.2N 128.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 18.7N 132.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
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Re: EPAC: DARBY - Hurricane
Alyono wrote:Ec agreeing with cmc. Looks like hawaiian shear once again. Mu probably has wrong environment. No surprise there
Only seeing 10-15kts of shear near Hawaii on the Euro shear maps.
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Re: EPAC: CELIA - Tropical Storm
1900hurricane wrote:There are still some dry air issues affecting convection in the northern part of the circulation, but Darby is on the cusp of annularization.
[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2016EP05/4KMIRIMG/2016EP05_4KMIRIMG_201607151930.GIF[img]
[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2016EP05/1KMSRVIS/2016EP05_1KMSRVIS_201607151945.GIF[img]
Convection has now seriously improved in all quadrants. If it can maintain decent -80C tops around the eye then it may earn enough to numbers T be declared a major hurricane.
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- Kingarabian
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