CPAC: DARBY - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

this was not expected

has drifted NNW

I think the Canadian model has this right. A sheared, low cloud swirl moving toward Hawaii

[NDG]

Looking better during the past few hours, this is probably as good as it is going to look, much cooler waters ahead of it.

[Kingarabian]

this was not expected

has drifted NNW

I think the Canadian model has this right. A sheared, low cloud swirl moving toward Hawaii

Looks like a wobble with that ever evolving eye.

The CMC had Celia going into Hawaii as an open wave. Yet Celia is still a healthy vortex moving north of the Islands as predicted by the GFS and the Euro.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

TXPZ24 KNES 151239
TCSENP

A. 05E (DARBY)

B. 15/1200Z

C. 16.4N

D. 120.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS SURROUNDED BY MG AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIBLER

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2016 Time : 120000 UTC
Lat : 16:21:56 N Lon : 120:01:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 971.4mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -6.0C Cloud Region Temp : -56.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

Up to 85kts.

EP, 05, 2016071512, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1201W, 85, 975, HU

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Darby's eye became a little better defined earlier this morning,
with an elongated tail of convection developing within the eastern
portion of the circulation. Dvorak final-T numbers are now 4.5/77
kt from TAFB, 5.0/90 kt from SAB, and 5.1/92 kt from the UW-CIMSS
ADT, so the initial intensity is raised to 85 kt on this advisory.
The eye appears to have opened up a bit on the latest satellite
pictures, so it's possible that Darby may have reached its peak
intensity.

The hurricane is now moving over sea surface temperatures a little
less than 27C, and the ocean beneath the hurricane is expected to be
colder than 26C within the next 24-36 hours. Since vertical shear
continues to gradually decrease, Darby is forecast to maintain its
intensity or only gradually weaken during the next day or two.
After 48 hours, more marked weakening is anticipated due to SSTs
getting as cold as 24-25C. No changes to the NHC intensity
forecast, which is essentially a blend of the SHIPS model and
Florida State Superensemble early and the IVCN intensity consensus
late, were required from the previous advisory.

Darby appears to have turned west-northwestward and slowed down,
and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt. An amplifying mid- to
upper-level trough along the west coast of the United States is
expected to weaken the subtropical ridge during the next day or
two. This should allow the hurricane to continue moving
west-northwestward for the next 36 hours, but thereafter a westward
turn is anticipated when a weaker Darby comes under the influence
of lower-level steering winds. There continues to be high
confidence in Darby's future path due to a tightly packed model
suite, and the updated NHC track forecast is shifted slightly
northward only during the first 36 hours to account for the recent
west-northwestward turn.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 16.5N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.9N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 18.1N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 18.6N 131.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 19.0N 136.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 19.0N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

[Alyono]

12Z MU has a fairly strong cane basically stalling just east of the Big Island

[Alyono]

Ec agreeing with cmc. Looks like hawaiian shear once again. Mu probably has wrong environment. No surprise there

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

  15/1800 UTC   16.6N    121.0W       T4.5/5.0         DARBY -- East Pacific 

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

EP, 05, 2016071518,   , BEST,   0, 166N, 1210W,  85,  975, HU,  34, NEQ,  100,  100,   70,  100, 1011,  240,  20, 105,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      DARBY, D, 12, NEQ,  210,  150,  120,  210, genesis-num, 011,
EP, 05, 2016071518,   , BEST,   0, 166N, 1210W,  85,  975, HU,  50, NEQ,   50,   50,   40,   50, 1011,  240,  20, 105,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,      DARBY, D, 12, NEQ,  210,  150,  120,  210, genesis-num, 011,

[1900hurricane]

There are still some dry air issues affecting convection in the northern part of the circulation, but Darby is on the cusp of annularization.

[Yellow Evan]

Is now marginally annular

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  DARBY       EP052016  07/15/16  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    85    85    85    85    83    76    71    66    62    57    52    46    43
V (KT) LAND       85    85    85    85    83    76    71    66    62    57    52    46    43
V (KT) LGEM       85    85    84    82    79    71    65    61    58    55    51    47    43
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         5     5     6     7     5     3     3     1     2     5     7     5    10
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -1    -3    -1     0    -2    -3     0     0     0     0     3    -4
SHEAR DIR         43    68    63    32    63    74    98    42   226   237   242   230   250
SST (C)         26.6  26.5  26.4  26.3  26.0  25.4  25.1  24.9  24.5  24.5  25.1  25.4  25.4
POT. INT. (KT)   129   128   127   126   123   117   114   112   108   109   115   118   118
200 MB T (C)   -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C)   0.7   0.5   0.5   0.5   0.4   0.6   0.9   0.9   0.9   0.6   0.6   0.5   0.5
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     5     5     4     4     4     4     4     4     4     4     4
700-500 MB RH     72    70    67    65    63    59    55    53    50    52    48    47    45
MODEL VTX (KT)    27    26    27    28    28    26    25    25    25    26    25    23    23
850 MB ENV VOR    56    58    63    69    72    84    80   103    97   114    99    97    90
200 MB DIV        31    23    12    26    22   -12    -9     4   -10     1    -1    -1    -2
700-850 TADV      -4    -1    -3    -2     0     0     4     1     0     4     5     6     4
LAND (KM)       1283  1336  1393  1451  1507  1604  1744  1904  2079  2047  1785  1523  1262
LAT (DEG N)     16.6  16.9  17.1  17.4  17.6  17.9  18.1  18.3  18.7  18.9  18.9  18.9  18.8
LONG(DEG W)    121.0 122.0 122.9 123.8 124.7 126.4 128.4 130.5 132.8 135.3 137.8 140.3 142.8
STM SPEED (KT)     9     9     9     9     9     9    10    11    11    12    12    12    11
HEAT CONTENT       3     2     1     1     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     1

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  80            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  537  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  12.5 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            5.2

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -2.  -3.  -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -31. -31. -32.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   1.   1.   4.   6.   9.  11.  12.  12.  12.  11.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   1.   1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           0.   0.   0.  -2.  -9. -14. -19. -23. -28. -33. -39. -42.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   85. LAT, LON:   16.6   121.0

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY      07/15/16  18 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.45           2.9
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :    41.8      40.3  to  144.5       0.01           0.1
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :     1.4       0.0  to   75.9       0.02           0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    12.5      38.9  to    2.1       0.72           3.9
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     5.7      18.9  to    1.4       0.75           3.7
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    85.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.64           2.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    22.8     -11.0  to  135.3       0.23           0.6
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):   416.4     638.0  to  -68.2       0.31           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :    -0.1       2.1  to   -1.7       0.58          -0.5
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.6
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  11% is   1.8 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  18% is   1.4 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  14% is   1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   9% is   1.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    11.3%   17.9%   13.9%    9.3%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     1.1%    1.0%    1.0%    0.5%    0.2%    0.2%    0.0%
    Bayesian:     0.0%    0.1%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     4.2%    6.3%    5.0%    3.3%    0.1%    0.1%    0.0%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY      07/15/16  18 UTC         ##
   ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS  ##
   ## AHI=  1   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052016
200 PM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Darby's eye has been clearing out during the past few hours with
some warming noted in infrared satellite imagery. There are some
breaks in the surrounding convection due to infiltration of dry
air, which has caused the subjective data-T numbers to oscillate
around 4.5 and 5.0 since this morning. However, CI numbers are 5.0
from both TAFB and SAB, and ADT estimates are up to 5.3/97 kt. Based
on these data, Darby's maximum winds are increased to 90 kt.

Vertical shear over Darby has become quite low and should remain low
during the entire forecast period. However, based on the latest
global SST analysis, Darby will only be over waters warmer than
26.5C for another 12-18 hours and is likely to reach SSTs as cold as
24C in a couple of days. Therefore, additional significant
strengthening is not anticipated, and in fact, a gradual weakening
trend is shown in the official forecast for the entire five days.
This forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains
relatively close to the SHIPS guidance and the Florida State
Superensemble.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 290/8 kt, to the
south of a strong mid-level ridge extending west of northern
Mexico. The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next 24 hours
due to an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough along the west
coast of the United States. This should keep Darby moving
west-northwestward for the next few days, followed by a turn to the
west at the end of the forecast period once the weaker cyclone
becomes steered by lower-level steering flow. It may sound like a
broken record, but the track guidance remains tightly clustered for
the entire forecast period. The updated NHC forecast is
essentially down the middle of the guidance envelope and not too
much different from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 16.8N 121.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.6N 124.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.9N 126.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 18.2N 128.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 18.7N 132.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/754060859261845504

[Kingarabian]

Ec agreeing with cmc. Looks like hawaiian shear once again. Mu probably has wrong environment. No surprise there

Only seeing 10-15kts of shear near Hawaii on the Euro shear maps.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

There are still some dry air issues affecting convection in the northern part of the circulation, but Darby is on the cusp of annularization.

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2016EP05/4KMIRIMG/2016EP05_4KMIRIMG_201607151930.GIF[img]

[img]http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2016EP05/1KMSRVIS/2016EP05_1KMSRVIS_201607151945.GIF[img]

Convection has now seriously improved in all quadrants. If it can maintain decent -80C tops around the eye then it may earn enough to numbers T be declared a major hurricane.

[Kingarabian]