Texas Summer 2016

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I was driving home and it hit me it is mid summer and amazing how green the majority of the land still was. Everybody's lawn is green, parks are green, side of the road was green. DFW hasn't hit 100 yet and if you think the green landscape has nothing to do with it you'd be wrong. I pulled up images from 2011 posted by some and it is night and day.

2011




2016 is complete 180

Makes a big difference it seems. What exactly is it though?

I remember one time i saw a picture from the NWS soon after a major tornado passed through. Where the storm passed the ground was torn up and yellow and the next day, there was a string of clouds DIRECTLY over the path of the tornado and the ground that was yellow. Same effect?

[Ntxw]

So using the idea that the Nina remains weak or neutral (preferably cold neutral) and following El Nino as predicted by guidance here is some analog potentials for 2016-2017 winter. Very early in the game as things can change but since it's boring just some pondering. I used data from ONI using ERSSTv4 which is the latest available ENSO dataset.

Year (freezes)

1954-1955 (38)
1959-1960 (59)
1966-1967 (48)
1978-1979 (49)
1980-1981 (38)
1983-1984 (51)
1995-1996 (46)
2005-2006 (21)

Those are some pretty good winters there. Many of them are very cold. The only dud really was 2005-2006. Average annual freeze for DFW is 33.

side note: 2013-2014 is a potential useful set as well had 2012-2013 failed Nino happened. But in terms of SST configuration this year may prove useful as it was cold neutral first year.



Key for weak events is to build cold air in Alaska and Canada which seems to be easier with La Nina but can be done in cold neutral. The cold signal isn't overwhelming but it is consistent.

[Ntxw]

Amarillo hit 108F today and some place near hit 110. Makes our mid 90s feel like a blessing lol. Man the extremes in the panhandle in any season

[Ptarmigan]

So using the idea that the Nina remains weak or neutral (preferably cold neutral) and following El Nino as predicted by guidance here is some analog potentials for 2016-2017 winter. Very early in the game as things can change but since it's boring just some pondering. I used data from ONI using ERSSTv4 which is the latest available ENSO dataset.

Year (freezes)

1954-1955 (38)
1959-1960 (59)
1966-1967 (48)
1978-1979 (49)
1980-1981 (38)
1983-1984 (51)
1995-1996 (46)
2005-2006 (21)

Those are some pretty good winters there. Many of them are very cold. The only dud really was 2005-2006. Average annual freeze for DFW is 33.

side note: 2013-2014 is a potential useful set as well had 2012-2013 failed Nino happened. But in terms of SST configuration this year may prove useful as it was cold neutral first year.



Key for weak events is to build cold air in Alaska and Canada which seems to be easier with La Nina but can be done in cold neutral. The cold signal isn't overwhelming but it is consistent.

1978-1979 and 1983-1984 are some of the coldest winters since 1895. 1978-1979 is the coldest winter going back to 1895.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Something we experienced during true La nina years, which could be different from a "light-nina" is that it warms up nicely between cold spells. Overall surface temps may be a bit misleading. The number of freezes is a good metric.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 121001
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
501 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers developing along the coast early this morning as
the moderate/strong onshore flow persists. At this time not expec-
ting this activity to make it too far inland before it dissipates.
With SE TX remaining on the back side of the shear axis aloft, we
should very limited development through the afternoon/evening (if
any). We are likely to see a repeat for tomorrow but with perhaps
just a slightly bit more coverage...especially for locations east
of I-45 (due to the proximity of the shear axis).

While the larger scale features remain fairly static the next few
days (with SE TX in the weakness region between the two upper rid-
ges), we could be seeing slightly increased rain chances with the
approach/passage of a rather well-defined disturbance from the NE
and E (under the ridge to the west). This feature combined with a
rise in Gulf moisture (PWs near 2in) will help to account for SCT
POPS over the weekend. Looking way ahead into next week, extended
models indicating hot/dry weather on the way as the western ridge
moves into the Central Plains and just sits..and sits. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution flags will continue through 15z
then should come down as winds over the water gradually relax.
Isolated showers this morning should also be coming to end around
the same time with the diminishing of the mornings speed convergence.
Winds come back up tonight and waters beyond 20 nm may need another
SCEC. Otherwise the forecast looks pretty similar into the weekend
with S to SE 10-15 knots. Next plume of Saharan dust may arrive late
Wednesday or more like Thursday. Currently this plume in the
Caribbean appears larger and with higher concentrations than the
last one so visby may fall below 4-5 miles if the last one is a good
gauge. Tides slightly elevated as well at 0.5 to 1 foot above normal
and this should continue through the weekend. Winds becoming a
little more easterly early next week as upper ridge strengthens
which could bump up the tides further.
45
&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy MVFR CIGS 1800-2700FT this morning inland with VCSH for
LBX/GLS. Winds southerly today getting gusty by mid morning and with
VFR conditions. Probably see a return of the patchy MVFR CIGS again
tonight in the north and northwest.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 79 97 / 10 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 10 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[TeamPlayersBlue]

To the above question, i answered it myself. Bare soil has an albedo of .17 versus green grass that has an albedo of .25. For example, fresh asphalt has an albedo of .04. Bare soil absorbs heat much more than green grass so when the heat dome starts cooking in an area for long periods of time, it makes sense that when there is much more bare soil present then green grass.

Carry on!

[Ntxw]

And snow has an Albedo up to .90! Thats partly why it doesn't warm up very much with a snowpack. You can test this in a parking lot on a hot day. Touch the cars, black tends to feel hotter than white

[weatherdude1108]

I was driving home and it hit me it is mid summer and amazing how green the majority of the land still was. Everybody's lawn is green, parks are green, side of the road was green. DFW hasn't hit 100 yet and if you think the green landscape has nothing to do with it you'd be wrong. I pulled up images from 2011 posted by some and it is night and day.

2011




2016 is complete 180

Makes a big difference it seems. What exactly is it though?

I remember one time i saw a picture from the NWS soon after a major tornado passed through. Where the storm passed the ground was torn up and yellow and the next day, there was a string of clouds DIRECTLY over the path of the tornado and the ground that was yellow. Same effect?

If everyone watered his/her lawns, I wonder if that would keep the 100s away(?).

[weatherdude1108]

I don't know if this is light at the end of the Dog Days tunnel or not with the last couple sentences of the EWX long-term discussion. But anything is better than the current pattern.

But it's still not as bad as 2011!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 121928
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
228 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies can be seen across South-
Central Texas this afternoon. Temperatures are warm, with values
in the lower to middle 90s. Should see these values rise several
more degrees before peak heating ends this afternoon. In the upper
levels of the atmosphere, the sub-tropical ridge can be seen to
our west centered near El Paso. This ridge will be nearly
stationary in the short-term as a weak trough remains to our east.
This will allow our weather to remain hot and dry tomorrow with
high temperatures remaining in the middle to upper 90s across much
of the area with 100-104 degrees possible in the southwestern
counties. Low temperatures the next two nights will be persistent
in the lower to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
The beginning of the long-term forecast will remain much of the
same as the sub-tropical ridge remains nearly stationary though
Saturday. This will ensure dry weather will continue with little
changes in temperatures. A stronger low will move into the
northwestern CONUS this weekend and this should help the ridge to
break down a bit. As this does so, the weak trough to our east
will move west and could allow some isolated showers or
thunderstorms to develop across the coastal plains Sunday through
Tuesday mainly in the afternoon hours. The sea breeze could be
more active just beyond the forecast period as the ridge re-
centers across the Ohio Valley. This will ensure deep onshore flow
that allows for a more convective sea breeze boundary in the
afternoons.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 130952
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
452 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers are developing/moving north across the nearshore
waters this morning. This activity should remain south of I-10 in-
to the mid/late morning hours before mixing out. Slightly increas-
ed Gulf moisture along with daytime heating will help produce ISO
SHRA/TSRAs later this afternoon...for locations generally east of
I-45 (given the proximity of the upper level shear axis). We will
likely see a similar pattern for tomorrow as the same features re-
main in place. While hot and humid conditions will persist across
SE TX the next couple of days...heat indicies should remain under
criteria given the daytime mixing (per forecast soundings).

Rain chances are still progged to become a bit more widespread by
the weekend with the approach/passage of a shortwave from the ENE
as the main upper level weakness area/shear axis shifts westward.
While lift/daytime heating do look favorable for rain there could
be a fair bit of lingering subsidence to overcome. 20-30% POPS do
look the way to go at this time. Strong/broad upper level ridging
appears to be the way the long-range forecast is going next week.
As such...this weekend could be our last best chances for rain if
the extended progs do verify. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf will maintain onshore flow
through next week. Southerly winds become more southeasterly Friday
night and Saturday as ridge axis moves north and aligns along the
Gulf Coast. This should lead to a longer fetch but with relatively
light winds near 10 knots. Seas of 2-4 feet should prevail through
at least mid week. Slightly elevated tide levels will continue.
Large area of Saharan dust over the Western Caribbean and Yucatan
may spread into the marine waters late tonight and Thursday leading
to reduced visibilities. Isolated showers this morning will likely
return Saturday and may even increase in coverage Sunday as deeper
moisture spreads into the area.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers near the coast as expected but these should dissipate
with weakening of the speed convergence near the coast after 7 am if
not sooner. Patchy IFR cigs at CLL and split channel satellite
showing the expansion of the lowered CIGS from around 66R to near
UTS northward and this will probably expand a little further south
before sunrise to encompass areas closer to CXO. Heating should
rapidly mix this deck out and CU field should develop with southerly
winds 10-15kts by mid morning. Return of patchy MVFR CIGS expected
near CLL after 06z THU. Dust may move into the area toward morning
THU hampering visibility and can`t rule out haze/dust visibilities
down to 4 to 5 miles. Not certain the highest concentrations of dust
will reach into Houston hubs or be focused further west.

45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 77 97 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 83 91 / 20 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99

[Ntxw]

Looks like DFW is going to hover around 95-98 degrees for the foreseeable future. While hot, for our standards that's still near normal and yet no true heat wave has yet ensued. If we go through July without 100F then you'd definitely start thinking about a 100F-free year. Rare terms indeed. Guidance overall has been running 2-5F too warm, had the GFS been correct we'd have 10+ official 100 degree days by now...currently 0. A sub-10 days appears likely though last year we didn't see 100s start until the end of July so there's still that..

KAUS has 1 day at 100 back in June. Mabry has seen several more. Houston also has zero.

[JDawg512]

While it may not be official, I can vouch that it has reached 100 degrees 4 times at my house. Currently 99 at just before 4 p.m. No doubt today will be the 5th.

[A.V.]

I am A.V., a new member. I am glad to be a part of this forum, and will contribute periodically.

[A.V.]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 130952
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
452 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers are developing/moving north across the nearshore
waters this morning. This activity should remain south of I-10 in-
to the mid/late morning hours before mixing out. Slightly increas-
ed Gulf moisture along with daytime heating will help produce ISO
SHRA/TSRAs later this afternoon...for locations generally east of
I-45 (given the proximity of the upper level shear axis). We will
likely see a similar pattern for tomorrow as the same features re-
main in place. While hot and humid conditions will persist across
SE TX the next couple of days...heat indicies should remain under
criteria given the daytime mixing (per forecast soundings).

Rain chances are still progged to become a bit more widespread by
the weekend with the approach/passage of a shortwave from the ENE
as the main upper level weakness area/shear axis shifts westward.
While lift/daytime heating do look favorable for rain there could
be a fair bit of lingering subsidence to overcome. 20-30% POPS do
look the way to go at this time. Strong/broad upper level ridging
appears to be the way the long-range forecast is going next week.
As such...this weekend could be our last best chances for rain if
the extended progs do verify. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf will maintain onshore flow
through next week. Southerly winds become more southeasterly Friday
night and Saturday as ridge axis moves north and aligns along the
Gulf Coast. This should lead to a longer fetch but with relatively
light winds near 10 knots. Seas of 2-4 feet should prevail through
at least mid week. Slightly elevated tide levels will continue.
Large area of Saharan dust over the Western Caribbean and Yucatan
may spread into the marine waters late tonight and Thursday leading
to reduced visibilities. Isolated showers this morning will likely
return Saturday and may even increase in coverage Sunday as deeper
moisture spreads into the area.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers near the coast as expected but these should dissipate
with weakening of the speed convergence near the coast after 7 am if
not sooner. Patchy IFR cigs at CLL and split channel satellite
showing the expansion of the lowered CIGS from around 66R to near
UTS northward and this will probably expand a little further south
before sunrise to encompass areas closer to CXO. Heating should
rapidly mix this deck out and CU field should develop with southerly
winds 10-15kts by mid morning. Return of patchy MVFR CIGS expected
near CLL after 06z THU. Dust may move into the area toward morning
THU hampering visibility and can`t rule out haze/dust visibilities
down to 4 to 5 miles. Not certain the highest concentrations of dust
will reach into Houston hubs or be focused further west.

45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
Houston (IAH) 97 79 97 77 97 / 20 10 20 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 91 82 91 83 91 / 20 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...99

This forecast seems too pessimistic, and quite too early as well. The upper level ridging they are speaking of is this:


If that is true, then, assuming the ridge stays in that position, there would actually be significant easterly flow into southern Texas, given the location south of the ridge's anticyclonic flow. That allows for some noteworthy chances of rain.

[South Texas Storms]

I am A.V., a new member. I am glad to be a part of this forum, and will contribute periodically.

Welcome to the Storm2K! Where do you live in Texas? You can add your location to your profile so people know where you are posting from.

[A.V.]

Houston NWS Afternoon Discussion:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
622 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016

.AVIATION...
Short range guidance appears to have overconvected today,
resulting in a lack of precipitation. Carrying forward the largely
persistence forecast from the last cycle, complete with MVFR cigs
and CLL, UTS, and probably CXO as well. Did introduce a tempo
group for IAH to cover potential for brief MVFR, but this concern
drops off dramatically as you head towards the coast. 25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT WED JUL 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...
5H ridging anchored over the state won out today as early day
offshore showers moving onshore fizzed out across the coastal
counties. It was another day in the middle 90s that...when
combined with middle 70 dew points...produced heat indices in
the 104 F to 109 F range for an hour or two over our far interior
counties. More/thicker cloud cover may have diminished efficient
mixing and kept dew points a bit higher than anticipated earlier
this afternoon. The very mild height weakness between the two
upper ridges that are positioned over the Desert SW and FL will
keep those slight shower/isolated storm chances in place through
the weekend.

Eastern CONUS ridging will expand westward early next week and
suppress early work week rain chances. By this time next week...
this gargantuan near 600 dam ridge may focus itself further
north. This positioning may lower heights enough...with higher
surges of eastern moisture...to increase warmth of the day POPS
for sct showers/iso thunder to low moderate (30%). Most likely
needless to say...but diurnal temperature behavior will undergo
little change through the period. Thus...with moisture values in
the 1.4 to 1.8 inch realm...partly cloudy days will remain warm in
the morning at around 80F and heat up into the middle 90s by 1 or
2 PM. This will translate to middle to late July maximum heat indices
of between 101 F to near 109 F. 31

MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure in the Gulf will maintain onshore flow
through next week. Southerly winds become more southeasterly Friday
night and Saturday as ridge axis moves north and aligns along the
Gulf Coast. This should lead to a longer fetch but with relatively
lighter winds. Weak low pressure over the SW Gulf and high
pressure over the SE U.S. will produce bring a prolonged east
wind for much of next week. Isolated to scattered showers will be
possible over the weekend as moisture levels deepen. The upper
ridge shifts slightly north early next week with a series of weak
disturbances bringing additional showers to the coastal waters
early next week. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 97 77 97 76 / 10 10 10 20 10
Houston (IAH) 79 97 77 97 77 / 10 20 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 83 91 81 / 10 20 10 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

[A.V.]

Precipitation Probabilities:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... cp.new.gif

[A.V.]

I am A.V., a new member. I am glad to be a part of this forum, and will contribute periodically.

Welcome to the Storm2K! Where do you live in Texas? You can add your location to your profile so people know where you are posting from.

Thank you. My location has now been updated.

[South Texas Storms]

I am A.V., a new member. I am glad to be a part of this forum, and will contribute periodically.

Welcome to the Storm2K! Where do you live in Texas? You can add your location to your profile so people know where you are posting from.

Thank you. My location has now been updated.

Thanks! Hopefully the ridge shifts far enough north to bring us deep easterlies and rain chances beginning next week.