JTWC is giving 90S a medium chance at development in the next 24 hours.
ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZJUL2016//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4S 76.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 72.3E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING CENTRAL
CONVECTION NOW EVIDENT. A 131348Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
AN IMPROVED LLCC WITH CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC. OBSERVATIONS FROM DIEGO GARCIA SHOW DECREASING
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSED TO THE
SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH
DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE
WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE NEAR 28 CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN MIXED WITH GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING
STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE LLCC CONSOLIDATION AND
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN
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