WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

[StormChaser75]

First good satellite images coming in



The western side of the eye seems to be coming just on shore now>> http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

[stormwise]

[CrazyC83]

Taimali has a population of about 10,000 (that is the likely landfall location - either right in or just south of).

[StormChaser75]

Here's a detailed map of southern taiwan with a high res satellite image

[MGC]

The Typhoon might be a bit stronger when it hits China than first forecast. It is crossing Taiwan in a narrower part so should be out over water in several hours sooner......MGC

[cycloneye]

Agree with Postel.

 https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/751191953778184192

[euro6208]

God Bless Taiwan!

Yup it seems to be fully intact as it is passing over a narrower part of Taiwan. Big storm for China...

[dexterlabio]

Initial torm footages from James Reynolds are absolutely intense.

[NDG]

Looking at the radar loop as if the high terrain interaction along with friction made the typhoon track wsw as it made landfall but you can clearly see that it has decoupled some with the low level circulation staying behind on the windward side of the high mountains while the mid to upper level circulation has continued going westward.

[euro6208]

Initial torm footages from James Reynolds are absolutely intense.

Did the powers go out at all? I can still see stoplights turned on...

[euro6208]

02W NEPARTAK 160708 0000 22.6N 120.8E WPAC 90 956

Category 2...

[CrazyC83]

02W NEPARTAK 160708 0000 22.6N 120.8E WPAC 90 956

Category 2...

Given its weakening trend, assessing the landfall intensity is difficult. I would personally estimate it was 110 kt at landfall (which was at 2230Z).

[vbhoutex]

From James Reynolds with Earth Uncut TV.
 https://twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/751151715358011394

[1900hurricane]

Rainfall totals thus far:

[dexterlabio]

Looking at the radar loop as if the high terrain interaction along with friction made the typhoon track wsw as it made landfall but you can clearly see that it has decoupled some with the low level circulation staying behind on the windward side of the high mountains while the mid to upper level circulation has continued going westward.

Nice observation. Almost the same thing happened with Cat3 Fanapi back in 2010. I think Luzon is more "typhoon-friendly" than Taiwan. Its mountainous terrain just disrupts even the most vertically stacked systems.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, Taiwan may be the single most disruptive object any tropical cyclone can cross in the entire world. The only others that even somewhat compare are Luzon and Hispaniola, and probably Madagascar (though I don't know for sure since I don't have as great of a working knowledge of tropical cyclone behavior around there).

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN.
THE SATELLITE FIXES CONTINUE TO BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE RADAR-INDICATED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH THE LLCC BEING DISRUPTED
BY TOPOGRAPHIC INTERACTION WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGE AND BEING
DEFLECTED WESTWARD. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS
BECOME DECOUPLED AND IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE LLCC. GIVEN THESE
DYNAMICAL CHANGES IN THE SYSTEM, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION
HAS DECREASED SINCE THE LAST WARNING. INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90
KNOTS, BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
RJTD AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN TAIWAN. STATION RCFN ON
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF TAIWAN OBSERVED SUSTAINED WINDS AT 072100Z OF
70 KNOTS GUSTING TO 99 KNOTS WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 964 MB. TY
02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS ITS CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHY OF TAIWAN, PARTICULARLY WITH
THE LLCC BEING SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE LLCC OF TY 02W HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
INTERACTION WITH SOUTHERN TAIWAN, BUT IF THE CIRCULATION CAN BECOME
VERTICALLY COHERENT AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT, TY
02W SHOULD RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY WITH A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE KOREAN
PENINSULA.
B. ONCE TY 02W EMERGES OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AND REGAINS A
VERTICALLY COHERENT CIRCULATION, THE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW BUT CONTINUE, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND LANDFALL IN MAINLAND CHINA
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. BY TAU 36, STY 02W WILL WEAKEN OVER EASTERN
CHINA AS IT GRADUALLY TURNS TOWARD THE NORTH, WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE, BUT THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES ALONG THE WESTERN
ENVELOPE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN THE NEAR TERM (TAU 12-24) TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE LLCC AS IT PASSES
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TAIWAN.//
NNNN

[stormwise]

Have seen a few Typhoons go over Taiwan usually the surface and mid-level piles up against the mountains, very similar to the Hawaii Big island .

[StormChaser75]

Sadly 1 has been killed and 66 Injured so far in typhoon nepartaks aftermath ...

[stormwise]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... n_zoom.gif


Spectacular look at the catastrophic core failure collapsing on impact and the decouple.