WPAC: NEPARTAK - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

JMA upped to 115 kt (CI 7.5).

TY 1601 (Nepartak)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 6 July 2016

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 6 July>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°05' (19.1°)
E129°10' (129.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 440 km (240 NM)
SW 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 15 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°30' (20.5°)
E126°25' (126.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

<Forecast for 03 UTC, 7 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N21°40' (21.7°)
E123°55' (123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 910 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 8 July>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N23°25' (23.4°)
E120°25' (120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (95 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (135 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 9 July>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°25' (25.4°)
E118°00' (118.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (170 NM)

[stormwise]

What bunch of storms would you group this with 1900hurricane its not imo up there with either Patricia or Haiyan.

[1900hurricane]

Josh Morgerman is headed to Taiwan for an intercept.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/750536597628657665

[1900hurricane]

What bunch of storms would you group this with 1900hurricane its not imo up there with either Patricia or Haiyan.

It's hard to rank storms without recon, but perhaps with storms like Soudelor '15, Megi '10, or Ivan '97. All were 155 kt or stronger storms in JTWC best track.

[StormChaser75]

http://himawari8.nict.go.jp/himawari8-image.htm?sI=D531106&sCl=true&sClC=ffff00&sS=11&sNx=7&sNy=6&sL=-450&sT=-117&wW=1280&wH=492&sD=1467776400000
The above link shows a amazing look at typhoon nepartak and it's surroundings .




And of course some close up satellite images of the very beautiful but deadly typhoon nepartak.

[CrazyC83]

What bunch of storms would you group this with 1900hurricane its not imo up there with either Patricia or Haiyan.

It's one notch down from them. Some comparable storms IMO:

Atlantic - Rita 2005
E Pacific - Rick 2009, Linda 1997
S Hem - Winston 2016
W Pacific - Soudelor 2005, Nida 2009, Nuri 2014

[mrbagyo]

It's amazing to see this typhoon maintain its small eye fantastically clear from any low level clouds for an extended period of time...
We've been viewing the ocean through that hole for several hour already.

[euro6208]

WOW!

[NotoSans]

JTWC down to T7.0 in their latest fix.

TPPN10 PGTW 060629

A. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)

B. 06/0600Z

C. 19.46N

D. 128.47E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO CDO EYE/ANMTN. 10NM EYE EMBEDDED APPROX 43 NM
INTO CNVCTN YIELDS AN E# AND CF (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. ADDED
2.0 FOR BANDING TO YIELD A DT OF 7.0. PT AND MET YIELD A 6.0. DBO
DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

HART

[mrbagyo]

02W NEPARTAK 160706 0600 19.5N 128.4E WPAC 150 911

[euro6208]

02W NEPARTAK 160706 0600 19.5N 128.4E WPAC 150 911

Not surprised but still playing catchup.

It's not easy to guesstimate the intensity of this monster but at the same time, it doesn't take a professional to say this is still quite stronger.

Based on past storms and data, it's likely between 160 to 175 knots right now.

[euro6208]

Jeff Masters has some excellent information in his updated blog.

Super Typhoon Nepartak

[NotoSans]

JMA is now forecasting a sub 900 mb storm.

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°50' (20.8°)
E125°35' (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 890 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (120 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (170 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

[mrbagyo]

JMA is now forecasting a sub 900 mb storm.

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 6 July>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N20°50' (20.8°)
E125°35' (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 890 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (120 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (170 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 240 km (130 NM)

If that forecast materialize, that would OFFICIALLY make Nepartak as the most intense tropical cyclone in terms of barometric pressure in the Western Pacific Basin since Typhoon Megi - 885 hPa (2010) --- official pressure of Haiyan was just 895 per WPAC's RSMC record


SSD is not updated once again.

[StormChaser75]

Last few satellite images of typhoon nepartak as the sun goes down..

[euro6208]

Dark grey ring around eye. Looking like 170 to 180 knots with no signs of weakening.

It's a Megi Carbon from 2010 when recon found 175 knots in her.

NEPARTAK



MEGI




Scarily similar....

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/750569565671845888

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 509 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 060550Z SSMI
IMAGE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. STY 02W HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, AIDED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM
WATER, AND VIGOROUS DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO TRACK QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE
AND CURRENT ANALYSIS OF THE STEERING RIDGE ORIENTATION. FORECAST
INTENSITIES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE HAVE DECREASED TO THE DISSIPATION
THRESHOLD DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN LAND INTERACTION.
B. STY 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL TAIWAN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR-TERM,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. HOWEVER, A SHIFT
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OR UNANTICIPATED STRUCTURAL
CHANGES, SUCH AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, COULD STILL YIELD
SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, AND AGAIN AS IT PROGRESSES
INTO MAINLAND CHINA AFTER TAU 48. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
TURN POLEWARD AND MOVE FURTHER INLAND AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING
RIDGE AXIS AFTER TAU 48. WHILE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY, IT IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR-TERM, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THAT PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING OVER LAND AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF TIME THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD, DISSIPATION NOW APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER REGARDING THE SPEED AND
TIGHTNESS OF THE POLEWARD TURN, BUT NEARLY ALL DEPICT THE
CIRCULATION REMAINING INLAND LONG ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE. GIVEN THE
NOTED MODEL SPREAD IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Incredible...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/750646636037103617