Slight Spin in Gulf of Mexico

[tropicwatch]

Radar and vis satellite imagery indicate a slight spin southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Has more convection than the spin east of Jacksonville yesterday but nothing to write home about yet

[tarheelprogrammer]

Radar and vis satellite imagery indicate a slight spin southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Has more convection than the spin east of Jacksonville yesterday but nothing to write home about yet

Not much spin


Not much convection either.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi?BASIN=CONUS&SUB_BASIN=focus_regions&AGE=Latest&CCA=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East&SSC=GulfOfMexico-x-x&PRODUCT=vis_ir_background&SUB_PRODUCT=goes&PAGETYPE=static&SIZE=Thumb&PATH=NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/GulfOfMexico-x-x/vis_ir_background/goes&&buttonPressed=Animate&ANIM_TYPE=Instant

[wxman57]

I see nothing there at all.

[Nimbus]

There are some boomers building over Houston but that hasn't moved south into the gulf yet.
Cold fronts seem to be digging pretty far south for the end of June?

[Yellow Evan]

No model support, though I will note a week ago I think 1 ECMW runF had a TC forming from what I think is this system.

[floridasun78]

people are getting bore nothing to tracking now wait until late aug we be very busy

[JaxGator]

There are some storms that seem to be associated with a front are entering the Gulf at the moment. Could there be some development if they maintain or provide mositure for the spin y'all are seeing? Or maybe a new low could form. Shear looked low last I checked. Of course I can wrong about that.

[weathaguyry]

Here is the current shear

[weathaguyry]

Also, convection looks to be building inland near the GOM, we'll see if this comes into the Gulf in the next few days

[Darvince]

It's just daily afternoon convection, nothing to see here.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

people are getting bore nothing to tracking now wait until late aug we be very busy

Know what you're saying and I agree, Swirl watching season seems to be in full effect

[tailgater]

people are getting bore nothing to tracking now wait until late aug we be very busy

Know what you're saying and I agree, Swirl watching season seems to be in full effect

Yeah I don't know why some of you keep checking this forum, just wait until late August. Said dripping with sarcasm.
I like swirl watching trying to find something before the models tell us it's gonna happen, most of the time it's futile but it is MY pastime.
Back on subject, i guess the trough doesn't have enuf energy and won't droop far enuf into the gulf to get going, because most of the other factors seem to favor something trying to get going. lots of rain here in SE Louisiana yesterday

[Dean4Storms]

You always want to watch a decaying frontal boundary that gets into the Gulf of Mexico regardless of what models may or may not be forecasting, they have been wrong on many occasions!

[tarheelprogrammer]

Surface low may be trying to form in the NW G.O.M but unlike yesterday there is spin and convection growing in the water.

[TheStormExpert]

Here is what the Euro showed @ 240hrs. for Thursday June 30th on it's 00z run Monday June 20th. Interestimg it was nearly spot-on with the timeframe.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Visible Satellite Loop.

[wxman57]

I see a trof axis on the surface plot, with pressures in the 1013-1014mb range off the upper TX and SW LA coasts. Not much to be concerned about. Big ridge will be developing over the Gulf Coast over the next 3-4 days, knocking down all the precip.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I see a trof axis on the surface plot, with pressures in the 1013-1014mb range off the upper TX and SW LA coasts. Not much to be concerned about. Big ridge will be developing over the Gulf Coast over the next 3-4 days, knocking down all the precip.

You will most likely be right. Still an interesting feature though. Good thing the ridge is coming.

[TheAustinMan]

Given the environment, chances of the convective cluster developing are slim, but the WRF-ARW (mind you, a mesoscale model so not necessarily geared for tropical cyclones) wants to ramp up the weak low fairly quickly. So far it's the only model that depicts the low doing much of anything.

[Dean4Storms]

I see a trof axis on the surface plot, with pressures in the 1013-1014mb range off the upper TX and SW LA coasts. Not much to be concerned about. Big ridge will be developing over the Gulf Coast over the next 3-4 days, knocking down all the precip.

You must be talking about off the TX Coast, NWS Mobile and forecasts from models I've seen keep the surface trough vacillating onshore during the day and offshore at night clear thru Friday.