2016 EPAC Season

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Yellow Evan
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#201 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:23 am

Image

Image

GFS showing stuff in the long range for a change.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#202 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 19, 2016 1:03 am

All lackluster storms. Hopefully Late July into August we see a change.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#203 Postby NDG » Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:48 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: History tells us that late starting seasons over the EPAC end up with below average ACE.
Regarding SSTs, the waters are not as warm as this time last year between Baja and Hawaii.


Near the equator yes.

Waters north of the equator and near Hawaii are warmer this time of the year than last year.


No, they are not warmer than last year, as I said earlier.

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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#204 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 19, 2016 7:01 am

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: History tells us that late starting seasons over the EPAC end up with below average ACE.
Regarding SSTs, the waters are not as warm as this time last year between Baja and Hawaii.


Near the equator yes.

Waters north of the equator and near Hawaii are warmer this time of the year than last year.


No, they are not warmer than last year, as I said earlier.




2016:

Image

2015:

Image
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#205 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:31 pm

Image

0z GFS through day 6

Image

Image

18z HWRF
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#206 Postby stormwise » Mon Jun 20, 2016 1:21 am

Image
left 2015-----Right 2016
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#207 Postby stormwise » Mon Jun 20, 2016 3:18 am

long.....long range cfs central pacific.
https://i.imgsafe.org/7a4c98a34d.png
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#208 Postby Darvince » Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:34 am

Latest EC has both this and another storm at 240h:
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#209 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:43 am

Euro and HWRF have a low developing in 72 hours. Think the NHC will take out the yellow marker soon.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#210 Postby euro6208 » Tue Jun 21, 2016 7:31 am

NDG wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote::uarrow: History tells us that late starting seasons over the EPAC end up with below average ACE.
Regarding SSTs, the waters are not as warm as this time last year between Baja and Hawaii.


Near the equator yes.

Waters north of the equator and near Hawaii are warmer this time of the year than last year.


No, they are not warmer than last year, as I said earlier.



No Doubt i agree with NDG about it not being warmer than last year just by eyeballing it...
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#211 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:40 pm

6z and 12z GFS's have nothing still.

0z ECMWF has 2 systems, but I don't buy the 1st since not a single EPS member had something prior to this run.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#212 Postby Alyono » Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:48 pm

I do believe the EC solution

GFS and NAVGEM are caving in that the monsoon trough is being shifted westward. Makes sense
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#213 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:32 pm

CMC goes nuts. :)

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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#214 Postby RL3AO » Tue Jun 21, 2016 1:33 pm

Welcome back CMC! We've missed you.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#215 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:00 pm

Image

Image

12z ECMWF
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#216 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:16 pm

GFS not showing much of anything right now.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#217 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:26 pm

12z EPS support for future TC's has dropped somewhat, especially within the next 10 days.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#218 Postby stormwise » Tue Jun 21, 2016 6:41 pm

GEFS ens were modeling this broad low pressure back on the 9th.
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#219 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Jun 22, 2016 2:21 am

Image

0z ECMWF
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Re: 2016 EPAC Season

#220 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 22, 2016 4:02 am

Let's see if the GFS caves at 06z.
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