2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

As with the case of every post nino's, season is slow to start but ends with a bang. Huge decrease of high pressures over the area and signs of strengthening lower pressure beginning in Septemeber over the main tracking grounds for powerful typhoons.

A category 5 is almost guaranteed somewhere if you look at the database and this can have catastrophic consequence. They form near land and make landfall at peak...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[euro6208]

First time most of the models are agreeing that something will develop. CMC is the strongest brings a possible typhoon into Hong Kong. EURO weaker and into Hainan. GFS like the rest shows multiple strong LPA's...

[euro6208]

Big MJO and Kelvin wave about to move through which is way the models try to develop something. WIll this be enough to produce something big?

[euro6208]

Not surprised to see 2 areas tagged as invest with the passing of a very strong kelvin wave...

94W Thread

95W Thread

[Darvince]

Morning, WPAC! How's the solstice?

[stormwise]

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493


Interesting paper.

[euro6208]

WPAC residents sure can rejoice with the quietness of the world's most active basin for now despite warming sst's, normal shear but slowly decreasing, and an established monsoon trough where powerful typhoons form but thanks to a developing La Nina and unfavorable atmospheric moisture which is mostly confined to the lower several 1000 feet and upper level winds tending to be unfavorable...

Persistent west winds along the equator are needed to help spin up and sustain a circulation...

Living in the most active basin, this is a blessing but somewhere down the road, someone will get it...

[WPBWeather]

WPAC residents sure can rejoice with the quietness of the world's most active basin for now despite warming sst's, normal shear but slowly decreasing, and an established monsoon trough where powerful typhoons form but thanks to a developing La Nina and unfavorable atmospheric moisture which is mostly confined to the lower several 1000 feet and upper level winds tending to be unfavorable...

Persistent west winds along the equator are needed to help spin up and sustain a circulation...

Living in the most active basin, this is a blessing but somewhere down the road, someone will get it...

It seems some of your basin's hyperactivity has moved East to the Caribbean, Gulf and Atl for this year.

[dexterlabio]

It seems some of your basin's hyperactivity has moved East to the Caribbean, Gulf and Atl for this year.

They sure must be hyperactive, I would actually be surprised if they could only manage to spawn a couple of weak TS at this point, given that 2016 is a post-El Nino year.

Going back to WPAC, it seems that my prediction for the first named TS in July will pan out. I know the models are showing some TD forming this week but I will not fall for that yet.

[euro6208]

WPAC residents sure can rejoice with the quietness of the world's most active basin for now despite warming sst's, normal shear but slowly decreasing, and an established monsoon trough where powerful typhoons form but thanks to a developing La Nina and unfavorable atmospheric moisture which is mostly confined to the lower several 1000 feet and upper level winds tending to be unfavorable...

Persistent west winds along the equator are needed to help spin up and sustain a circulation...

Living in the most active basin, this is a blessing but somewhere down the road, someone will get it...

It seems some of your basin's hyperactivity has moved East to the Caribbean, Gulf and Atl for this year.

I'd disagree. Excluding Alex, it's been mostly weak TS's even with a developing nina. Better to start having more Majors or even Cat 5's if you want to make such a claim...

At this time last year, WPAC at

8 TS
5 TY
4 MT
3 Cat 5

Atlantic...

4 TS
1 Hur
1 MH

[galaxy401]

It seems some of your basin's hyperactivity has moved East to the Caribbean, Gulf and Atl for this year.

I'd disagree. Excluding Alex, it's been mostly weak TS's even with a developing nina. Better to start having more Majors or even Cat 5's if you want to make such a claim...

At this time last year, WPAC at

8 TS
5 TY
4 MT
3 Cat 5

Atlantic...

4 TS
1 Hur
1 MH

Uh...no at this time last year the Atlantic only had 2 TS. It's June and having a major hurricane during that time is very rare. What is your point?

[TheStormExpert]

It seems some of your basin's hyperactivity has moved East to the Caribbean, Gulf and Atl for this year.

I'd disagree. Excluding Alex, it's been mostly weak TS's even with a developing nina. Better to start having more Majors or even Cat 5's if you want to make such a claim...

At this time last year, WPAC at

8 TS
5 TY
4 MT
3 Cat 5

Atlantic...

4 TS
1 Hur
1 MH

Uh...no at this time last year the Atlantic only had 2 TS. It's June and having a major hurricane during that time is very rare. What is your point?

There has not been any major hurricanes to date in the Atlantic, only Cat.1 Hurricane Alex back in mid-January.

[euro6208]

It seems some of your basin's hyperactivity has moved East to the Caribbean, Gulf and Atl for this year.

I'd disagree. Excluding Alex, it's been mostly weak TS's even with a developing nina. Better to start having more Majors or even Cat 5's if you want to make such a claim...

At this time last year, WPAC at

8 TS
5 TY
4 MT
3 Cat 5

Atlantic...

4 TS
1 Hur
1 MH

Uh...no at this time last year the Atlantic only had 2 TS. It's June and having a major hurricane during that time is very rare. What is your point?

Mistakenly misread Alex's intensity.

I was referring to this year 4 TS, 1 HU not last year.

[galaxy401]

Oh oops I misread your post.

There has not been any major hurricanes to date in the Atlantic, only Cat.1 Hurricane Alex back in mid-January.

Well yeah because that is extremely rare. Last time that happened I believe was in the 60s.

[euro6208]

Even the 2 new invest, Models aren't doing much with it...Afterwards, models still keep the area kinda quiet despite a strong Kelvin Wave and MJO moving over the area.

INVEST 96W

INVEST 97W

[stormwise]

Its going to all change soon northeast monsoon is going to kick in PI will be under the pump.

[bg1]

Besides 2005 and 2010, has the Atlantic ever led the WPAC by 4 tropical storms at any time during a season?

[euro6208]

NWS Guam on the latest on why the basin is quiet and add in the fact that La nina is coming...

No worries--While we have warming ocean temps from all the clear weather and reduced winds, which is good for tc development, atmospheric moisture has been not very deep and quite variable. There's also been quite a bit of unfavorable upper-level shear that greatly inhibits development.

Right now, however, moisture supply is more abundant and shear has reduced a bit. The fact that west Micronesia has seen weakened winds the past few weeks and brushes with the far eastern end of the monsoon trough suggests that the weather pattern is trying to change down there toward a more typical wet season look. It just takes a little while for all the parts to work in unison: the sea and atmosphere--water temps, moisture in the air and low/high level winds.

[1900hurricane]

Guidance continues to look bearish concerning future tropical cyclone potential. If 97W fails to develop, 1998's record for latest classifiable tropical storm could be within reach.

[euro6208]

Guidance continues to look bearish concerning future tropical cyclone potential. If 97W fails to develop, 1998's record for latest classifiable tropical storm could be within reach.

Indeed...That and the drought...