ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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ATL: DANIELLE - Remnants - Discussion
AL, 94, 2016061812, , BEST, 0, 196N, 905W, 15, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST S
Thread at talking tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117977
Thread at talking tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117977
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- cycloneye
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ATL: DANIELLE - Models
Only models here.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Well, it has a chance to spin up into a decent tropical cyclone once it emerges into the BOC. Shear is now considerably lower down there, and conducive for development. I could see this becoming at least a 45 kt TS before making landfall. However, cyclones really tend to ramp up quickly in that region, and with warm ssts down there, it would not shock me if it ends up being stronger before coming ashore early next week.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
First run of tropical models.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Wind Shear is not the lowest but it's not too strong like what we saw with Bonnie and Colin. Personally I think it is very possible we could see Danielle in the coming days, peak strength in my opinion would be around 35-40kts.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Models look to have trended north.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Models still don't indicate more than a trof axis or weak swirl moving ashore Monday night. I suspect this system won't amount to much besides the increased squalls across the BoC tomorrow/Monday. The east coast system looks much more likely to me, though the NHC has chosen to ignore it due to its non-tropical origins, I suspect.
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- weathaguyry
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
ALL models making this into T.S. At some point!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Boy, when I made my predictions for this year, I didn't mean 17 storms before Labor Day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
you are aware you cannot use any intensity forecast beyond 48-60 hrs?
This will over Mexico then
This will over Mexico then
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- weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Ok, then could this reform in the Pacific?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Cam of Campeche in NW Yucatan. Those low clouds are moving very fast so something is near that town.
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-campeche-centro
http://www.webcamsdemexico.com/webcam-campeche-centro
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ATL: DANIELLE - Recon
If necessary first mission is on Sunday afternoon.
Code: Select all
NOUS42 KNHC 181528
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 18 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-023
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 19/1530Z C. 20/0300Z
D. 21.5N 95.0W D. 22.0N 96.5W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z E. 20/0500Z TO 20/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Appears to be some type of circulation in the Bay of Campeche.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-90&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-90&type=Animation&info=vis&numframes=10
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Will there be enough time for development given its close proximity to Mexico?
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
Definitely some spin going on off the northwestern tip of the Yucatan. This may have a shot to develop after all. I give it a 50 percent chance if that spin is in the lower levels already.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Yeah no this isn't making it across Mexico no matter what the SHIPS output thinks.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942016 06/18/16 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 23 25 27 28 29 31 37 41 44
V (KT) LAND 20 23 24 25 26 27 29 27 27 27 33 37 40
V (KT) LGEM 20 23 23 22 22 20 18 20 25 26 31 34 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 20 21 27 27 22 23 12 10 6 7 5 10 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -5 -1 3 1 -2 0 -5 4 1 5 3 0
SHEAR DIR 275 259 248 258 266 249 285 279 326 2 62 62 79
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 27.3 24.1 23.7
POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 157 161 160 153 145 143 145 145 129 100 98
ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 143 147 148 140 132 131 135 136 120 94 92
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 8 7 9 7 11 9 11 6 5 1
700-500 MB RH 64 64 68 69 69 73 71 71 70 64 60 55 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 9 10 9 8 8 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -26 -6 13 9 1 0 -27 -23 -24 -22 -20 -31 -45
200 MB DIV 14 15 31 36 20 16 21 37 -3 6 -19 0 -27
700-850 TADV -9 0 -5 -18 -15 2 -8 -5 -2 -4 7 -4 6
LAND (KM) -11 76 154 211 259 207 92 -113 -369 -112 154 188 402
LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.8 22.4 22.6 22.4 21.9 21.6 21.2 20.7
LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.3 92.0 92.6 93.4 95.2 96.9 99.0 101.5 104.3 107.1 110.0 113.1
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 9 9 9 11 13 13 13 14 15
HEAT CONTENT 19 33 21 20 23 28 28 5 0 9 12 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.7
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 34. 36. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -11. -12. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 17. 21. 24.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.6 90.5
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942016 INVEST 06/18/16 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.21 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.69 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 19.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 53.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.88 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 1.7% 9.9% 4.1% 1.1% 0.0% 1.0% 3.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 1.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942016 INVEST 06/18/16 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942016 INVEST 06/18/2016 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 24 25 26 27 29 27 27 27 33 37 40
18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 23 25 23 23 23 29 33 36
12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 19 21 19 19 19 25 29 32
6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Models look to have trended north.
Yeah but the models posted above aren't exactly reliable.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
The better ones like HWRF,GFDL come later this afternoon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion
CourierPR wrote:Will there be enough time for development given its close proximity to Mexico?
Thats questionable. Under optimum conditions, a couple days could be reasonable. If I had to guess right now with what i'm looking at I'd guess a depression "could" form prior to landfall but less than 50/50 odds of that. I dont think the time and conditions will get it to T.S. level though (but not out of the question). In its favor: relatively small system could more easilly spin up a bit quicker. Working against it: appearts to be throwing arc clouds out toward the northwest. Southwesterly upper level shear though not severe, is nonethelsess noticable still. Convection is thus far pretty paltry.
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