2016 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 14 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad low pressure system, located about 400 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized cloudiness
and shower activity. However, environmental conditions appear to
be conducive for slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form later this week while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

NHC bullish?

[cycloneye]

Invest 93E is up

[Yellow Evan]

12z EPS ensembles strongly agree on something in the 12-15 day time frame 700 miles west from Mexico. Should pop up on the full res 10 day ECMWF fairly soon.

[Kingarabian]

There actually has been a plethora of low pressure areas in the EPAC. There just doesn't seem to be enough fuel to to go hand in hand with these lighters (low pressure areas).

Invests 91E and 93E both were in warm waters, favorable shear environments.

[cycloneye]

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 5m5 minutes ago

93E looks less organized. NE Pac has good chance to set record for latest 1st named TC. Current record 6/21 (2009)

[NDG]

Yeap, a very good chance of setting a record, there's just not much going on over there over the next 5-10 days.

[Yellow Evan]

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 5m5 minutes ago

93E looks less organized. NE Pac has good chance to set record for latest 1st named TC. Current record 6/21 (2009)

Not counting Pali, this is a lock at this point.

[Kingarabian]

I'm still betting on an average to above average season. La-Nina doesn't seem to be on its way 100%. Unless whatever happened to the Atlantic hurricane season in 2013 happens in the EPAC...

[Yellow Evan]

I'm still betting on an average to above average season. La-Nina doesn't seem to be on its way 100%. Unless whatever happened to the Atlantic hurricane season in 2013 happens in the EPAC...

The AHS fell apart in 2013 due to the AMO tanking. That isn't happening here.

At this point, an average season is reasonable in terms of named storm count with below average ACE. Nothing too different from 1988. +PDO has remained quite firm, waters are some of the warmest in history, and wind shear is fairly low and should remain at or below average for much of the season. Hopefully 91/3 E cleared out the dry air. The CFS lowers shear substantially in August, September, and October. With that said, the fact we were unable to get a tropical storm last MJO pulse is concerning and I think La Nina will get going sooner rather than later, but I'm willing to give it a few more weeks before substantially lowering expectations.

[Kingarabian]

I'm still betting on an average to above average season. La-Nina doesn't seem to be on its way 100%. Unless whatever happened to the Atlantic hurricane season in 2013 happens in the EPAC...

The AHS fell apart in 2013 due to the AMO tanking. That isn't happening here.

At this point, an average season is reasonable in terms of named storm count with below average ACE. Nothing too different from 1988. +PDO has remained quite firm, waters are some of the warmest in history, and wind shear is fairly low and should remain at or below average for much of the season. Hopefully 91/3 E cleared out the dry air. The CFS lowers shear substantially in August, September, and October. With that said, the fact we were unable to get a tropical storm last MJO pulse is concerning and I think La Nina will get going sooner rather than later, but I'm willing to give it a few more weeks before substantially lowering expectations.

That MJO pulse turned out to be weaker than expected IMO. Development that far west this early is not favorable.

[Yellow Evan]

The AHS fell apart in 2013 due to the AMO tanking. That isn't happening here.

At this point, an average season is reasonable in terms of named storm count with below average ACE. Nothing too different from 1988. +PDO has remained quite firm, waters are some of the warmest in history, and wind shear is fairly low and should remain at or below average for much of the season. Hopefully 91/3 E cleared out the dry air. The CFS lowers shear substantially in August, September, and October. With that said, the fact we were unable to get a tropical storm last MJO pulse is concerning and I think La Nina will get going sooner rather than later, but I'm willing to give it a few more weeks before substantially lowering expectations.

That MJO pulse turned out to be weaker than expected IMO. Development that far west this early is not favorable.

I felt the past MJO pulse not producing anything was mainly a timing issue. There was no disturbance 300-400 miles off the coast of Mexico tat tends to benefit the most from early season MJO pulses.

[NDG]

History tells us that late starting seasons over the EPAC end up with below average ACE.
Regarding SSTs, the waters are not as warm as this time last year between Baja and Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: History tells us that late starting seasons over the EPAC end up with below average ACE.
Regarding SSTs, the waters are not as warm as this time last year between Baja and Hawaii.

Near the equator yes.

Waters north of the equator and near Hawaii are warmer this time of the year than last year.

[Yellow Evan]

Regarding SSTs, the waters are not as warm as this time last year between Baja and Hawaii.

That's not saying much. SST's were the warmest on record last year. They have been warmer than any other year on record aside from last year, however.

[Kingarabian]

GFS has a TS in 8 days, June25th.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS

[Kingarabian]

Euro has a closed low 10 days out.

[Yellow Evan]

6z and 12z GFS have zlich.

0z EPS has less long range support for a system than the 12z.

[Yellow Evan]

0z NASA and 12z EPS in good agreement on action of some sort of system off the West Coast of Mexico 9-10+ days from now. Timeframe slowly moving down.