Subtropical or Tropical Development off the Mid-Atlantic Coast?

[TheStormExpert]

I feel this deserves it's own thread as the Euro has been pretty consistent in developing at the very least a Hybrid System off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Coastline late this weekend. The GFS on the other hand only shows a weak low moving parallel to the East Coast several hundred miles offshore. We'll see which model gets this right this weekend.

Which model do you think is correct in this situation?

TropicsWatch
@TropicsWatch

ECMWF indicates what looks like 45mph TS separating from front Sunday night off East U.S. Coast. Warrants mention.

[TheStormExpert]

From the Global Models Thread.

12z Euro still shows a Subtropical Storm off the Mid-Atlantic Coastline @ 96hrs.

[weathaguyry]

Not totally sold yet, only the ECMWF and the much less reliable GEM are picking up on development, but surely interesting to watch

[wxman57]

The GFS has the low developing, too. In fact, the low is already there - it's in NE Ohio right now. That's the low the models move offshore on Saturday. I'm really surprised that the NHC isn't talking about at last STS development. I think that will change by tomorrow.

[RL3AO]

The GFS has the low developing, too. In fact, the low is already there - it's in NE Ohio right now. That's the low the models move offshore on Saturday. I'm really surprised that the NHC isn't talking about at last STS development. I think that will change by tomorrow.

Yeah. I imagine we'll see it added to the TWO tonight or tomorrow. I can't see how it doesn't have at least a 10% chance of being an STS.

[northjaxpro]

Well, we have been talking about this potential since last weekend. EURO has been consistently showing an hybrid/TS off the Mid-Atlantic. GFS shows a much weaker surface reflection. My gut says the EURO may be right. As wxman57 stated, the kicker is the Low Pressure area moving east/southeast out of the OH Valley. This feature should move off the DELMARVA region by midday tomorrow and continuing into Saturday. Sunday is the day to watch as the front stalls out off the Mid-Atlantic and SE U.S. coast region. If that Low can separate (detach) from that frontal boundary, I think we will see development.

[NDG]

Subtropical development for sure, IMO, I don't see it being a true tropical system.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Do not personally think we see a named storm out of this or the storm in the B.O.C. Just my opinion and not backed by any MET data or knowledge. However, looking at some of the stuff online I have ran into I feel more confident in my seasonal numbers prediction. Off the subject I know but I think we are currently in a quiet phase for now.

[cycloneye]

No mention at 8 PM TWO.

[northjaxpro]

I think we will squeeze in one more storm before we end June. We just may see Debby's record in 2012 broken of the earliest date for formation of "D" storm in Atlantic basin. Well, that is if the EURO is right, which my hunch tells me it will be.

[Hammy]

There's no model support from the GFS (which is essentially meaningless) and the GEM doesn't show a tropical system, so I"m thinking we get a strong nor-easter type systerm but nothing named.

[stormwise]

NAM=GFS is sniffing the potential for the next named storm here.



EC Genesis
Probability of a tracked tropical storm within 300km. Tracks are taken from the ECMWF ensemble output, obtained via the wmo ftp feed. These are raw track output grouped into systems, but with no callibration applied.

Shading indicates the percent of EC ensembles with a tracked system within 300km. Tracked via the ECMWF vortex tracker. Lines at numbers indicate grouped system tracks and forecast genesis time.

[NDG]

The Euro messed up really bad with this system.

[Kingarabian]

And with 93E.

[NDG]

Yeap, it has been overaggressive with some systems, which in years past was never the case with it.