4th Named Storm in the Atlantic before July?

[Hurricaneman]

To be honest most tropical storms and hurricanes in june usually aren't from truly tropical stuff, usually from convergence from a frontal trough in the GOM, cold fronts and the like but once in a great wile they do come from tropical waves {Alex 2010}

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[northjaxpro]

I think there may be an opportunity for potential development from June 20-25, either in the GOM or off the SE ATL coast. Models, in particular the EURO, have modestly showed potential development the past couple of days, especially off the SE U.S. coast in that June 20-25 timeframe. But, as time progresses, that Low may be from a frontal trough that appears to set up off the SE. U.S. coast. If this materializes, the Low may acquire tropical characteristics and will monitor.

I am more interested with the GFS showing a possible development of a tropical cyclone in the Western GOM by June 21. If the ridge from the Western Atlantic builds in stronger and quicker by next week, GFS may be on to something imo.

[TheStormExpert]

If anything was to form and get named between June 20th-25th it would rival Tropical Storm Debby(2012) which was named on June 23rd for earliest "D" storm formation.

[TheStormExpert]

I think there may be an opportunity for potential development from June 20-25, either in the GOM or off the SE ATL coast. Models, in particular the EURO, have modestly showed potential development the past couple of days, especially off the SE U.S. coast in that June 20-25 timeframe. But, as time progresses, that Low may be from a frontal trough that appears to set up off the SE. U.S. coast. If this materializes, the Low may acquire tropical characteristics and will monitor.

I am more interested with the GFS showing a possible development of a tropical cyclone in the Western GOM by June 21. If the ridge from the Western Atlantic builds in stronger and quicker by next week, GFS may be on to something imo.

Well Joe Bastardi was mentioning a week or so ago that the Western GoM would need to be watched the second half of June.

[Alyono]

Debby in 2012 was a tropical wave that was tracked for about a week through the Caribbean

[chaser1]

I think there's little doubt that the significance of a 4th named storm in June would certainly be indicative of a VERY active and eventful Atlantic hurricane season. Regardless if the 4th named storm this year were to form in the MDR, be of initial tropical origin, form off a cold front and aquire tropical characteristics, or were beamed down from some alien space craft ........... the fact remains that if the next Atlantic tropical storm develop before June 23 then a new record will have been established. June 23, 2012 is when Tropical Storm Debbie formed, and was the notorious year when Hurricane Sandy struck and heavily damaged New York, New Jersey, with significant impact to much of the Northeastern states. Of important note, 2012 was tied for the 3rd most active Atlantic season on record. Prior to 2012, the record for the earliest date in a season for a 4th named tropical storm to form was when hurricane Dennis formed on July 5, 2005. Once again it should be noted that 2005 broke every record ending as the single busiest Atlantic Hurricane Season on record.

While the obvious point that a busier season would seem to pose a far greater overall risk, which areas thoughout the Caribbean, U.S., Mexico, and potentially even Canada will likely be most impacted, will be largely dependant on this years' still evolving steering and long wave patterns. As time goes on its becoming plainly obvious that we are quickly evolving back to an ENSO neutral or possible La Nina conditions. If it bears out that genesis conditions will only continue to improve, while also in line with a general consensus opionion that tropical storm formation this year is likely to be less focused toward the MDR and more toward the Western Atlantic... then I have to believe that this year will pose an even greater risk (especially to the U.S.) than many were anticipating only weeks ago.

[JaxGator]

Yes the models are being more consistent with the D storm forming soon. Having Danielle form before June 23rd would be interesting. Especially its proximity to land if it forms.

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[chaser1]

Yes the models are being more consistent with the D storm forming soon. Having Danielle form before June 23rd would be interesting. Especially its proximity to land if it forms.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

As of this morning, there "might" even be 2 upcoming candidates around 132 hours out. One which the European model has been sniffing out lately and the other as suggested by the Canadian model placing a T.S. to form in the South/Central Gulf and to approach Brownsville. Of course, we are talking about the Canadian model here lol, but for what its worth, this is the second straight run indicating a T.S. to form in the Gulf. More interestingly, while the GFS is not onboard with the U.S. Conus coastal low transitioning to a tropical low as the EURO does.... the Canadian model is now on board with the EURO on that system.

[JaxGator]

Having the EURO and CMC agree on a system is interesting and so is having 2 storms at the same time off the East and Gulf Coasts (regardless if they're tropical or frontal in origin). I think both models agreed on Colin for a while. The GFS has the East Coast storm near Florida-Georgia while the EURO is more south than it was.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneRyan]

Six more days for Danielle to come up and break or tie Debby's record.

[TheStormExpert]

Six more days for Danielle to come up and break or tie Debby's record.

Have doubts the record will be broken unless the low off the East Coast forms(which seems less likely now). But I do believe we will see Danielle by the end of the month, likely in the GoM.

[chaser1]

I"m also beginninig to be much less enthusiastic regarding either the East coast hybrid system transitioning to a T.S. or the wave in the S. Gulf having the time to organize and fully develop. Still well within a realm of possibility, but overall am much less bullish than I was a few days ago.

What the heck lol? What a difference 6 hours makes!

[HurricaneRyan]

We got Danielle! It did happen