2016 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Every model is showing TC genesis except the GFS. What gives?

[cycloneye]

JB talks about GFS.

@BigJoeBastardi · 1m1 minute ago 

Hard to believe how bad the GFS has been against the European on the hemispheric 5 day. Embarrassing

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, a pretty good bet that we will see Agatha born in the Eastern Pacific later this week.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast
of southern Mexico in a couple of days in association with a
tropical wave that is currently located south of Guatemala.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while the disturbance moves westward or west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF

[CaliforniaResident]

probably will max out as a TS or a cat 1 at best: nothing like those powerhouse storms we were seeing last summer.

[Yellow Evan]

probably will max out as a TS or a cat 1 at best: nothing like those powerhouse storms we were seeing last summer.

Poleword outflow should be decent with this system, although not sure about southerly outflow. It's early but I'd say there is a decent chance this makes a run at Cat 1 status as long shear isn't too problematic which it appears looking at the model grids will be 10 to 15 knots max. The main limit I see on intensification will be dry air, at least until/if an inner core is established, given water vapor imagery, which may be why the GFS shows zlich.

[cycloneye]

10/60

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN JUN 12 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of
southern Mexico in a couple of days in association with a tropical
wave that is currently located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while the disturbance moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Brennan

[gatorcane]

Nada still looking at the GFS. Also nothing from the CMC. Usually the CMC develops everything. I agree with NHC to go with a better than not chance something develops but it's not set in stone we get a hurricane out of this as the EC thinks, as good as that model is. Seems that it is easterly shear that keeps the GFS and CMC from developing.

[Kingarabian]

Nada still looking at the GFS. Also nothing from the CMC. Usually the CMC develops everything. I agree with NHC to go with a better than not chance something develops but it's not set in stone we get a hurricane out of this as the EC thinks, as good as that model is. Seems that it is easterly shear that keeps the GFS and CMC from developing.

The CMC had it for a few days.

IMO the CMC base algorithm:
Be extremely erratic and bullish in the Atlantic.
Be super conservative in the Pacific

Anyways the Euro still on board with a hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF slowly trending more bullish, has it down to 991mbar on Weather Bell. Still the GFS should start caving to the ECMWF soon, given past histroy, and I've seen no signs of it.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of
southern Mexico in a couple of days in association with a tropical
wave that is currently located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while the disturbance moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 13 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of
southern Mexico in a couple of days in association with a tropical
wave that is currently located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while the disturbance moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[RL3AO]

The GFS has had a terrible June (at least in the mid-latitudes of the NH at 500 mb). Doesn't necessarily mean it will cary over to TC-genesis in the tropics, but I guess I'm leaning towards the Euro here.

[Yellow Evan]

0z UKMET still develop this, but keeps this weaker.

[cycloneye]

Still GFS has nada.

[cycloneye]

20/50.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 13 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop south of the coast of
southern Mexico in a couple of days in association with a tropical
wave that is currently located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
later this week while the disturbance moves westward or
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF through 72 hours

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF weaker this run.

[Kingarabian]

These models in the EPAC this year...

Now watch the GFS all of a sudden start showing development.