NW Caribbean Convection

[tropicwatch]

Nice blow up of convection this morning in the NW Caribbean. A buoy in the area has pressure of around 1012mb and upper level conditions appear to be good. Might be worth watching the next couple of days.

NDBC
Location: 19.918N 84.938W
Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2016 15:20:00 UTC
Winds: S (170°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in
Air Temperature: 83.7 F
Dew Point: 80.8 F
Water Temperature: 84.0 F

[Hurricaneman]

The models develop this modestly, but with an area of low shear we may need to watch that area again for development as it seems a piece of Colin got left behind and can't be discounted especially with the current anticyclone over it

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[thundercam96]

How many models are presenting this theory for development?

[tropicwatch]

I'm thinking it might be the catalyst for the area they are hinting at in the GOM.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

Not sure what you all are looking at. Euro and GFS do nothing with this area. You can track the vorticity but nothing comes of it.

[tropicwatch]

We are just talking tropics on an interesting area.

[tolakram]

We are just talking tropics on an interesting area.

Yep, agree and certainly not something out of the ordinary here. I bounced in here from the model thread and worked in the wrong direction.

[gatorcane]

The GFS looks to bring a area of 850mb vorticity from the NW Caribbean area NNE towards the west coast of Florida in the next couple of days. If anything more rain for peninsula Florida from this feature.

[bamajammer4eva]

All models keep it really weak and you have to look closely to track it maybe since it is going to stay so close to land interaction with Florida and so it never really has a chance.

[tropicwatch]

Pressure continues to fall and 850mb vorticity is increasing.
NDBC
Location: 19.918N 84.938W
Date: Tue, 7 Jun 2016 18:40:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (250°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in or 1010mb
Air Temperature: 79.3 F
Dew Point: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.8 F

1200Z 850mb vorticity


1500 850mb vorticity

[tailgater]

Navgem for what it's worth, takes a weak TD toward south Texas

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2016060712/navgem_mslp_pcpn_watl_19.png

[northjaxpro]

Convection definitely on the increase in the NW Caribbean late this afternoon.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Impressive on rgb but only a few models support it. I just don't see it getting going..it's a mass of rain..there is no circulation at all

Tho I'll cover my rear by saying there have been model hints at a follow up to Colin all week. It would have to get going pretty quickly tho. This is the defination of blobwatching...we should enjoy it now and sharpen our eyes in the shallow months.

[thundercam96]

Impressive on rgb but only a few models support it. I just don't see it getting going..it's a mass of rain..there is no circulation at all

Tho I'll cover my rear by saying there have been model hints at a follow up to Colin all week. It would have to get going pretty quickly tho. This is the defination of blobwatching...we should enjoy it now and sharpen our eyes in the shallow months.

Just waiting until late July.... Can't come fast enough.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Well this time in 2005 the first storm was forming on June 8th..Arlene....so if that is any indication we will have lots to look at

[northjaxpro]

NHC analyzing surface trough across the region from the western tip of Cuba down into the Gulf of Hondurus. 18Z GFS still holding on to a weak Low(1012 mb) to be in the SE GOM on Thursday.

There is an anticyclone over the trough in the NW Caribbean, and shear is not a major issue at this time.The trough is also in some of the warmest ssts in the basin. Definitely have to monitor this closely. It may not have a lot of models looking at possible development. However, I have seen several instances of systems developing without having a lot of models initially jumping on board.

850 mb low level vorticity has continually increased through the day into this evening. If this trend continues, I have to think EURO and the other models will join the GFS with the idea that some potential for development may occur. We shall see as time progresses.

[N2FSU]

Convection still very persistent:

[ftolmsteen]

There appears to be a spin up heading north to FL just off the coast of Cuba that came from the flare up yesterday.

[northjaxpro]

There appears to be a spin up heading north to FL just off the coast of Cuba that came from the flare up yesterday.

Well, there is something rotating being shown distinctly on long range Key West radar just off the northwest coast of Cuba, drifting north as you mentioned ftpolmsteen. I am not sure if it is mid-level or at the surface, but there is a spin there for sure currently.

[TheStormExpert]

It's mid-level.

Jim Cantore
@JimCantore

Interesting little spin coming off Cuba. Appears to be mid-level looking @ surface obs(yellow box)
enhanced FL rain?